2044 Electoral Map

[MT Treasurer]

FDR 2.0, aka as President Jon Tester, wins reelection in a 49-state landslide as the Democrats finally stick to their roots and shun their neoliberal Fairfax/Fairfield County-type base (which still votes for them becuz of demographics, unfortunately). NH, which remains a staggeringly elastic, libertarian, Independent-minded, contrarian, Republican state at heart (its loyalty to the GOP being rivaled only by Alf Landon’s Vermont), is the lone holdout, voting for Charlie Baker Jr. in his unsuccessful bid for the presidency. The most Democratic state is... right, it doesn’t really merit mention: Montana, naturally, where an ironclad coalition composed of pot-smoking, fat, VIOLENT farmers and other #populist, #libertarian WWC rural folk, latte liberals and affluent voters in the Bozeman area, Native Americans, blue state migrants from the West Coast, and of course educatidz in Missoula has turned the state into a socialist haven and ProgressiveCanadian’s favorite vacation spot.

... Am I doing this right? Seriously though, there is really no way to know what the map will look like in 26 (!) years, especially when you bear in mind how much has changed since 1992. A shot in the dark...

It will really come down to whether the GOP can hold/win Texas, Florida and North Carolina or not.

[MT Treasurer]

New Hampshire has almost always voted to the right of Maine, so the idea that Maine is going to become Likely R while New Hampshire is solid D is pretty hilarious.

“Virginia has almost always voted to the right of West Virginia, so the idea that West Virginia is going to become Likely R while Virginia is Solid D is pretty hilarious.” - TexArkana in 1996? (No, I’m not comparing ME to WV, but this argument is stupid.) Democrats still have a lot of room for growth in NH, too.

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Obviously the GOP would need to adapt for IL to become a Tossup, but they pretty much have to do that anyway under any scenario in which they want to remain relevant. Also, this is 2044, A LOT can happen, and it’s foolish to assume that the Electoral Map will be the same for all eternity. All that said, Illinois should still be a difficult state for the GOP to win. 

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We’ll just have to agree to disagree here. Obviously you could make a case for NC being Lean or Likely D as well, but I do believe GA is going the way of CO/VA in the long run, regardless of what “strategy” Democrats pursue.