2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[MT Treasurer]

The only people I know of who have the seat as lean dem right now are obvious dem hacks.

I mean, it’s not really that absurd to rate it Lean D, especially given that Manchin will win the district easily against Morrisey. If Ojeda wins this year (which is certainly possible), he might run against Shelley Moore Capito in 2020 and make that race competitive, so Republicans need to take this race very seriously.

[MT Treasurer]

Daily Kos Elections now has senate rankings, though they are basically the same as everyone else's. Remember, DKE and DK are basically two seperate things: DK are Extreme Hacks, DKE is mainly data analysis from a normal left view, similar to RRH's analysis from the normal right.

Way too generous to Republicans in NV and AZ, but other than that these ratings are fine (and a lot better than Cook's), though WV, ND and MT could certainly be moved to Lean D and OH and WI to Likely D. And TN is probably a Tossup at this point.

[MT Treasurer]

Why are people still taking Cook's ratings seriously?

[MT Treasurer]

I didn’t know Steve Stivers was an Atlas poster.

[MT Treasurer]

Thoughts on this part of Sabato's analysis?

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[MT Treasurer]

Roll Call: The 10 Most Vulnerable House Members of 2018:

1. Rod Blum (IA-01)
2. Keith Rothfus (PA-17)
3. Barbara Comstock (VA-10)

lmao

[MT Treasurer]

538 Senate Forecast is up:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/

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These people continue to defy parody.

[MT Treasurer]

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/09/17/politics/cnn-polls-arizona-tennessee-senate/index.html

I love how King talks about MO, IN, FL, AZ, TN potentially going D but doesn’t even touch NV. The meme is alive and well.

[MT Treasurer]

And predictably, people on Twitter are throwing a tantrum over that MT-SEN rating change. Reading some of those comments you’d think MT was the most Democratic state in the country and Republicans never swept all the statewide races except governor in 2016. Tester definitely isn’t less vulnerable than Tina Smith, Sherrod Brown or even Joe Manchin, but of course people will let their personal feelings about these candidates and/or the state cloud their judgement. Lean D is a perfectly fine rating, and Duffy's analysis of the state of the race is right on the money.

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I also agree with the WV change (which was long overdue), Lean D might even be too generous to Morrisey, if we’re being honest. TX is still Lean R IMO, but Toss-up isn’t that far-fetched.

[MT Treasurer]

Gonna be funny watching everyone move Montana back to Likely D in a week or two.

#Populism Montana is more likely to be Toss-up than Likely D "in a week or two".

(It will most likely remain Lean D until election day.)

[MT Treasurer]

Cook Senate Ratings changes:

MT-Sen: Lean D -> Toss Up (Wake me up)
NE-Sen: Likely R -> Solid R
NJ-Sen: Likely D -> Lean D
OH-Sen: Lean D -> Likely D

[MT Treasurer]

MT isn't tossup

That’s the ratings chance you people take issue with? Classic Atlas.