AL-Senate Leadership Fund: Moore +4 in GOP primary runoff

[MT Treasurer]

Undecideds will stick with the incumbent, but why do the numbers only add to 95%?

Those outside of Moore's core know that a vote for Moore in the runoff is a vote to risk Jones winning the general. They'll go with Strange because of his electability - not unanimously, but enough for Strange to narrowly win the runoff.

[citation needed]

[MT Treasurer]

Strange = Classic establishment republican in the mold of Richard Shelby, who is beloved in the state.
Moore = Firebreathing reactionary jerk who makes Sessions look moderate.

Shelby isn't perceived as being corrupt, can't be tied to an unpopular Bentley administration, has seniority, has visited every county in the state dozens of times and held more than 2000 town halls, has very high approval ratings, is battle-tested, and a former Democrat who switched parties in 1994 (his "the Democratic Party left me" shtick goes over well with voters in a state like AL). The guy is basically an institution in AL politics.

[MT Treasurer]

Even in a situation where Dems gain the AL seat, they'd still need to hold every seat they have in 2018, plus pickup NV/AZ. So unless the GOP dismantles to a point where they can't even defeat Claire McCaskill, they'd still have the senate.

1.) I agree that they will beat McCaskill, but she could always retire and a more electable Democrat could win the nomination. Unlikely, but possible.
2.) Even with that in mind, why would they voluntarily give away a Senate seat to the Democrats? Having 52 instead of 51 seats makes a big difference when it comes to passing legislation, obviously.