Kind of puts their MO polls into perspective...
Their final poll (Blunt +3, Trump +14) in 2016 wasn't bad, they even underestimated Trump's margin.
And they could very well be right here and in MO in the end (with the potential for increased accuracy in MO given that history), but it is interesting that people can call this race Lean D or Toss-up and call MO Likely R when Sisolak trails here by more than McCaskill does behind any of the challengers in the other poll. Yes there are other factors at play besides polling (incumbency, region, PVI, etc.), but the difference in how people are treating these polling disparities is quite extreme.
Isn't this basically a Laxalt internal, though? Anyway, I can only speak for myself, but I'm not putting too much stock into polling, which has become more and more unreliable anyway. 2018 should be a good year for NV Democrats if they can get out the vote again (and they probably will), but I guess one could also rate the gubernatorial race a Tossup instead of Lean D (though I think Laxalt is a bit overrated, honestly). It just reminded me of all the polls showing Heck in a strong position, and we all know how that race turned out. The lack of reliable and accurate polling data forces greater reliance on the fundamentals of the race and the lean of the state, which is why I think Laxalt (less so than Heller, though) and McCaskill are both underdogs, the latter much more so for several reasons. Obviously things can change, though.
