Hey MT Treasurer, this is kind of random, but had Schweitzer beaten Burns in 2000, would he still be serving today? Would he have had an easier reelection than Tester?
I have no doubt that he would still be serving today. He probably wins by 30 points in 2006 and then by 13-15 or so in 2012.
Not sure how he would do in 2018. Probably better than Tester, but by how much is hard to tell. I feel like the anti-establishment mood would hurt him if he were running for a fourth term, and I believe much of his crossover appeal would be gone by election day. I'd probably still rate it Tilt D (or maybe Lean D, depending on polling and the national environment). Senator Schweitzer would have a much harder time than Governor Schweitzer IMO, and creating an aura of inevitability around supposedly unbeatable politicians (like Evan Bayh and Tommy Thompson) can backfire.
Poll
