WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin

[MT Treasurer]

McKinley NOT running, will seek reelection instead

[MT Treasurer]

West Virginia AG stirs speculation of Senate run with 'major' Monday announcement

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Pls no.

[MT Treasurer]

Yes, yes! I doubt Morrisey wins the primary vs Jenkins, but if he did, that would be great news for Team Manchin!

Totally agreed. Jenkins' district is still heavily Democrat in registration, and I guess Morrisey has more name recognition in the other two districts, especially the Eastern Panhandle. So yeah, Jenkins could be in trouble in the primary.

[MT Treasurer]

Morrisey is in. Sad!

[MT Treasurer]

Morrisey led Jenkins in mid-October poll commissioned by 35th PAC

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[MT Treasurer]

Convicted ex-coal boss Blankenship will run for Senate

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[MT Treasurer]

Democrats are propping up Blankenship, lol...

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https://www.politico.com/story/2018/04/19/west-virginia-gop-senate-primary-blankenship-537827

[MT Treasurer]

Really not looking good for Republicans here...

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https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/morrisey-blankenship-would-get-crushed-in-november/ar-AAwNLrG

[MT Treasurer]

Really hope that Blankenship takes enough votes away from Morrisey to allow Jenkins to eke out a narrow win, but it’s probably not going to happen.

[MT Treasurer]

GE is probably Tilt/Lean D now, would have been at least Likely D with Blankenship and Tossup with Jenkins.

[MT Treasurer]

Tilt/Lean D --> Tilt/Lean D

[MT Treasurer]

so, where should Heitkamp do a rally for Manchin?

I think Huntington would make a lot of sense, no? She’s probably a much better fit for that area than the Eastern Panhandle (Morrisey's base).

[MT Treasurer]

I feel like Montana and West Virginia are the two races which lean Democratic right now because Republicans kind of fumbled the ball but where there’s still potential for a GOP upset. Tester has a much higher floor than Manchin but also a much lower ceiling, so it’s hard to tell which state is more winnable for the GOP.

[MT Treasurer]

Who would win: an asshole from Maryland OR a Montana thiccboi

He basically moved to Montana 15 years ago and considers himself a Montanan. There are legitimate reasons to dislike Rosendale (you know, reasons related to actual political positions and issues/legislation), but "Maryland Matt" is an incredibly silly and immature line of attack. Just ask true Montana populist™ Rob Quist how effective it was against New Jersey Greg.

[MT Treasurer]

Lol https://hotair.com/archives/2018/09/17/emerson-west-virginia-almost-heaven-trump-joe-manchin/

Looks like Manchin has the slight edge for reelection. So do yall think he and other red state dems if they win will get to be more aggressive, left wing, and stand up to Trump more if reelected?

Definitely. Unlike blue state Republicans, red state Democrats can get away with that.

[MT Treasurer]

https://www.politico.com/story/2014/10/barack-obama-anthony-brown-pat-quinn-111885

IL-GOV: Tilt R -> Lean D
MD-GOV: Likely D -> Safe D

[MT Treasurer]

West Virginia voters do not differentiate between federal and state elections, neither of which are very partisan in the state.

[MT Treasurer]

No sh**t Manchin doesn’t like Trump. If he’s fortunate enough to be re-elected, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him turn a 180 and go full on Claire McCaskill in his voting behavior. I doubt he’ll run again in 2024

To be fair, we’ll most likely see that happen with every red state Democrat, not just Manchin.

[MT Treasurer]

Manchin's vote was spineless, but this will probably only hurt Morrisey. Might be time to move this from Lean to Likely D.

[MT Treasurer]

Trump will be stopping in WV before the election again

https://www.greatfallstribune.com/story/news/2018/10/26/president-donald-trump-plans-fourth-trip-montana-ahead-mid-terms/1779981002/

very good boon for Morrisey.

No, that’s the other WWC #populist state...

[MT Treasurer]

Read past the headline

"According to Bloomberg, Trump will hold rallies in Montana, West Virginia, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Tennessee, Georgia and Florida over six days next week. "

Ah, I see. I actually did read past the headline, but missed that part.

[MT Treasurer]

Manchin still won though, and outrunning Hillary Clinton by 45 points is legitimately impressive, even if he didn't outrun her by 50 points or 55 points.

Yeah, when was the last time a blue state Republican Senator outran their last nominee by 45 points?

[MT Treasurer]

Manchin still won though, and outrunning Hillary Clinton by 45 points is legitimately impressive, even if he didn't outrun her by 50 points or 55 points.

Yeah, when was the last time a blue state Republican Senator outran their last nominee by 45 points?

Susan Collins (2014): 52 points
Susan Collins (2008): 40 points
Olympia Snowe (2006): 62 points

ME is really an oddball. It’s easy to forget that Republican Senate candidates in blue states were crushed across the board in 2008 and 2014, which makes Collins' landslide victories even more impressive.

[MT Treasurer]

Republicans didn’t even try in any blue state senate races in 2014 though (besides Colorado, but that was more a swing state at the time) since there were so many red state opportunities already. They were fairly successful in blue state governorships that year where they tried

They definitely tried in NH and MI (and were somewhat hopeful about MN at the beginning of the cycle, although that race quickly trended away from them). With the exception of CO, all of their Senate pick-ups were in states Obama lost in 2012 and/or which were trending Republican anyway (IA). It was a good result for Republicans, but hardly some red tidal wave. 

They did fairly well in blue state governorships, but gubernatorial races aren’t federal races. A blue state Republican winning a Senate race by 37 points in an Obama +15 state is nothing to scoff at just because the overall political environment was favorable for Republicans.