Initial Inside Elections/Gonzales 2018 Senate ratings

[MT Treasurer]

Way too incumbent-friendly, if you ask me (especially NV, AZ, OH, IN, MO and MI).



http://www.rollcall.com/news/gonzales/initial-2018-senate-ratings-map-filled-with-gop-opportunities
http://www.insideelections.com/ratings/senate

[MT Treasurer]

Well it is really hard for any site to make any ratings with any degree of accuracy at this point. If you do not like it create your own site.

Well, I agree, I just don't think it makes much sense to rate IN/MO Tossups and then rate NV Lean R and AZ Likely R. Should McCaskill and Donnelly win reelection, it almost certainly means that Heller is headed for a double digit loss and that Flake is in big, big trouble. There is no universe in which Democrats hold IN and MO but don't pick up NV or AZ (unless the NV Dems nominate another Shelley Berkley). Incumbency isn't as powerful as it once used to be.

[MT Treasurer]

Would anyone (except MTT/TNV) have predicted Democrats picking up New Hampshire but not Wisconsin?

Heisenberg also made it pretty clear that WI was much more competitive than NH. And quite frankly, it should have been obvious to everyone.

[MT Treasurer]

I think a better comparison for any "omg Michigan is competitive" thing is Indiana - How can we say Dan Coats is safe in Indiana in 2010 when Obama just won in 2008!

I doubt anyone ever thought that Coats could be in trouble in 2010, and MI is still much more competitive than IN. But yeah, while Stabenow is basically a generic liberal Democrat and not really a good fit for her state, beating her won't be easy. I wouldn't rule out an upset if Trump is popular, but I'm not sure which Republican could actually make it a race. I'd also rate it Likely D at this point, but definitely not Safe.