MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, these polls are fun, but there is no way the East-West gap will be that large or that Wicks will get 8% of the vote.

[MT Treasurer]

Why is Shadows using this thread to repeat the Quist campaign's talking points?

I don't think any particular scandal has sunk Quist. But Pianoforte's campaign has done a very good job of keeping up a constant drip, drip, drip of small bad things that build to a consistent narrative.

Again, I hate to sound like bronz here, but both sides™ do stuff like this in a Congressional race. The Quist campaign has been running attack ads claiming that PF and his business have had 22 tax liens filed against them, which simply isn't true. They also accused him of actively supporting groups which are trying to sell public lands and some other stuff like him being from NJ, blocking stream access near his estate, etc.

All Quist needs/needed to do is stick by his populist playbook and localize the race. He had a poor debate performance, doesn't really have clear political positions on a lot of issues (especially foreign and gun policy) and is trying to appeal to everyone at the same time. That's not necessarily the fault of the national Democratic party, but rather a result of Quist being a very mediocre candidate. Of course he could still win this race, but only because it's a special election and only because Montana is a very Democratic-friendly state.

At this point I must say I'll be really glad when this election is over. Still 2 weeks left, unfortunately.

[MT Treasurer]

You won't see any good pollster polling this race before the election, so don't get your hopes up. The more confusion there is, the more interesting election night will be, I guess.

I wouldn't trust any poll in this race. My prediction will be based on gut feeling alone.

[MT Treasurer]

I still think the Lee Newpapers might have Mason Dixon conduct a poll in the next few weeks, like they usually do for Montana races of import.  Or, at least I'm hoping that they will.

Maybe, but their last poll in 2016 was conducted Oct. 10-12, so basically one month before the election. It had Trump up 10 and Bullock up 2 (and after predicting that Bullock would win by 2-4 and not in a massive landslide on election day, I was called an idiot in that thread).

[MT Treasurer]

Harry is saying Quist is "within single digits" https://mobile.twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/862797237289717763

You don't say?

But apparently Enten doesn't know anything about (MT) politics if he thinks Tester is heavily favored just because the special election is close. The people in the comment section predicting Tester has nothing to worry about and will win by double digits are delusional.

Tester was the one who really pushed hard for Quist to be the nominee, and Quist has to thank him a lot fot that. If the Democrats lose this race, Tester definitely won't be "happy", even if the result is close. In many ways, this is a proxy war between Daines and Tester/Bullock - as you know, Pianoforte and Daines are close friends and Daines convinced PF to run for this seat. Bullock and Tester supported Quist against Curtis and did a lot to get him nominated.

[MT Treasurer]

It would appear that Curtis was the one who should've won the nomination then.

Well to be fair, most people (including myself) thought Quist had a better chance of winning this race than Curtis. He just didn't run away with the race like I suspected he would. I think Daines deserves some credit for not abandoning PF after his 2016 loss, though.

[MT Treasurer]

Of course they're going to return more mail-in ballots when they're the most populated counties in the state. It's the percentage that counts, and that 29.86% number in Missoula and the 47.52% in Yellowstone don't really suggest good news for Quist. EDIT: Also, it's literally just a 300-vote edge.

I wouldn't read too much into this, though. Still interesting, of course, but Democratic or Republican turnout could be extremely high on election day.

[MT Treasurer]

I made a map showing the percentage of requested ballots returned so far in the Bullock (red) and Pianoforte (blue) counties. I apologize for the awful color scheme:



Light blue 20%-29.99% --> 30%-39.99% --> 40%-49.99% --> 50%-59.99% Dark Blue
Light red 20%-29.99% --> 30%-39.99% --> 40%-49.99% --> 50%-59.99% Dark Red

Missoula is just short of 30%, so it's a little bit better for Democrats than would appear in this map. Same is true for Lewis and Clark, where the number is very close to 50%.  

Turnout in Yellowstone County seems to be very high - Problem: that doesn't tell us much since we don't know the margin here. PF should win the county, but he needs to win it by at least 5 points in order to win statewide.

[MT Treasurer]

I made a map showing the percentage of requested ballots returned so far in the Bullock (red) and Pianoforte (blue) counties. I apologize for the awful color scheme:

Don't you mean Quist TN? Lol.

No, Bullock. Bullock was the Democratic nominee for governor in 2016 and this map shows the percentage of requested ballots returned so far in the counties won by Bullock and Pianoforte in the 2016 gubernatorial race. Obviously there is no way we can know what the map for the special election will look like.

[MT Treasurer]

Think about Mark Sanford returning to Congress. These races are nationalized and personality defects are rationalizations for why the disfavored party's candidate loses, not reasons. (That said I'm pessimistic about Quist.)

This race hasn't really been nationalized very much, though. Yes, the national mood is clearly a factor, but not nearly as significant as in GA-06, for example. I agree that Quist's "scandals" won't matter on election day, though.

[MT Treasurer]

If Quist wins, would his coalition be much different than Bullock's?  is there any voting blocs Quist is stronger or weaker with than Bullock was?

This is actually a good question - I don't think there will be many differences, but I'm not entirely sure. Some polls shown have shown a much larger East-West divide than in the past - I doubt it will be that pronounced on election day, but I think Yellowstone Co. will vote more to the right of the state than it did in past statewide elections. Quist could make up for it by doing better in Flathead, Gallatin and Lewis and Clark, though.

He needs a high percentage and good turnout in Missoula, unless he can do significantly better than Bullock in these rural areas. If you want five counties to watch, it would be Yellowstone (Pianoforte needs to win here by at least 5), Flathead (Quist's home county - I doubt that matters much, but watch the margin), Lewis and Clark (Democratic-leaning "swing" county - if PF wins here or comes close to winning it, Quist is 100% toast; but Quist needs to win by quite a bit, probably at least 14 or 15 points), Missoula (Quist needs to replicate Bullock's 2012 showing) plus of course if there is a general "trend" in the rural counties, especially in Eastern MT.

I'm not sure why people are surprised that the race is close, though. Republicans were never going to win this by a large margin.

[MT Treasurer]

Billings Gazette endorses Pianoforte

They also endorsed Tester, Bullock and Clinton, so this is a bit surprising. For the most part, this is a pretty good article that (rightly) criticizes Quist's campaign.

[MT Treasurer]

Quist's crappy campaign is giving them an excuse to look bipartisan.

Yeah, this is true lol.

Btw: Even the Missoulian endorsed Pianoforte today - although with some reservations.

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, I don't think these endorsements will decide the election or have any significant impact (though they matter more at the local and Congressional level than at the presidential level), but it doesn't happen every day that they endorse a Republican for Congress. I posted this only to show that I'm not the only one who thinks Quist has run a pretty poor campaign.

[MT Treasurer]

Why would Quist be gaining in this race? Obviously Trump is in meltdown but would that change enough voters minds? I thought Pianoforte was up by 7ish in the polls?

We don't know whether Quist is gaining in this race, but the polls showing Republicans up by a massive amount were always junk. Pianoforte had the higher name recognition due to his gubernatorial campaign and Democrats always come home in the end. This happens in almost every election in MT (a reverse VA, if you want), there is nothing surprising about this.

[MT Treasurer]

Why would Quist be gaining in this race? Obviously Trump is in meltdown but would that change enough voters minds? I thought Pianoforte was up by 7ish in the polls?

We don't know whether Quist is gaining in this race, but the polls showing Republicans up by a massive amount were always junk. Pianoforte had the higher name recognition due to his gubernatorial campaign and Democrats always come home in the end. This happens in almost every election in MT (a reverse VA, if you want), there is nothing surprising about this.

If you believe Eric Erickson, he said polling has moved hard recently. Take it for what it's worth.

If I had to take a guess, he probably saw that Gravis poll showing Quist down 8 and then another poll showing him within 2 or 3 points.

[MT Treasurer]

Do mail in ballots in Montana lean Republican as they typically do elsewhere in the country do they have no lean/ a Dem lean typically?  I want to know what to expect when I start seeing results on election day.

No, the first returns always show Democrats with a massive lead. In last year's election, Bullock was up 13 points with 15% of the vote in on election day, IIRC, and he only won by 4 in the end. In 2012, he also had a massive lead in the early returns, but only won by 1.5 in the end. A similar thing happened in the Senate races in 2006 and 2012.

[MT Treasurer]

Another question based on the map I posted earlier: is it common for people in larger/Democratic counties and/or urban areas to be slower at returning their ballots? The percentage returned in almost all of the populated and Democratic areas is behind the rest of the state as of a couple of days ago.

Good question, I must admit that I'm not very familiar with the pattern here. I guess it makes sense that counties like Missoula are lagging behind the rest of the state. When I calculated the percentages the last time (five days ago), Missoula was at 30%, now they're at 51%. I wouldn't read too much into this. Overall, turnout seems to be really high.

Here are the updated numbers so far (as of 5/16/2017) - sorry if you've already posted these:

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You can also find the relevant data (absentee ballots by county) here.

[MT Treasurer]

A Drmocrat with less skeletons with a much better campaign than Quist, but also the same folksyness as Quist, would likely be leading by a health margin with even without all this.

That being said, can we at least wait until the election is over before analyzing why Pianoforte lost? Republicans could still win this, even if it's a pure Tossup.

Still not convinced he won't win.

You're not the only one.  I still think this is Tilt R at least.

I think I agree.  Quist has had so much baggage come out that he probably needs a favorable environment on the level of the New Deal Dem waves at this point.

Eh, Pianoforte has been attacked pretty relentlessly as well. Also, this stuff is nothing that would sink a campaign. Honestly, I don't know any Republican from here who is taking this race for granted or who believes that Republicans have this in the bag.

National Republicans are now pouring late cash into the race:

Anyway: A Republican-friendly group is rushing a last-minute $200,000 ad buy onto the Montana airwaves

[MT Treasurer]

Are you done repeating these talking points again? Or is the Quist campaign paying you for this?

[MT Treasurer]

As of 5/17 (vs. the day before):

County (2016 Presidential vote, Gubernatorial vote) % returned

Cascade (voted for Trump by 22%, Bullock by 10%) 58.9% of mail-ins returned (+2.5)

Flathead (voted for Trump by 36%, Gianforte by 15%) 58.3% of mail-ins returned (+1.8 )

Gallatin (voted for Clinton by 1%, Bullock by 15%) 54.7% of mail-ins returned (+3.5)

Lake (voted for Trump by 21%, Bullock by 1%) 65.1% of mail-ins returned (+2.1)

Lewis & Clark (voted for Trump by 7%, Bullock by 23%) 63.8% of mail-ins returned (+1.6)

Missoula (voted for Clinton by 16%, Bullock by 34%) 53.4% of mail-ins returned (+1.7)

Ravalli (voted for Trump by 38% Gianforte by 14%) 67.1% of mail-ins returned (+2.5)

Silver Bow (voted for Clinton by 14%, Bullock by 44%) 60.6% of mail-ins returned (+2.8 )

Yellowstone (voted for Trump by 27%, Gianforte by 1%) 61.9% of mail-ins returned (+1.9)

Statewide: 59.6% of mail-ins returned

[MT Treasurer]

As of 5/18 (vs. the day before):

County (2016 Presidential vote, Gubernatorial vote) % returned

Cascade (voted for Trump by 22%, Bullock by 10%) 60.7% of mail-ins returned (+1.8 )

Flathead (voted for Trump by 36%, Gianforte by 15%) 62.4% of mail-ins returned (+4.1)

Gallatin (voted for Clinton by 1%, Bullock by 15%) 56.8% of mail-ins returned (+2.1)

Lake (voted for Trump by 21%, Bullock by 1%) 67.3% of mail-ins returned (+2.2)

Lewis & Clark (voted for Trump by 7%, Bullock by 23%) 66.3% of mail-ins returned (+2.5)

Missoula (voted for Clinton by 16%, Bullock by 34%) 55.6% of mail-ins returned (+2.2)

Ravalli (voted for Trump by 38% Gianforte by 14%) 69.0% of mail-ins returned (+1.9) 

Silver Bow (voted for Clinton by 14%, Bullock by 44%) 63.0% of mail-ins returned (+2.4)

Yellowstone (voted for Trump by 27%, Gianforte by 1%) 63.4% of mail-ins returned (+1.5)

Statewide: 61.8% of mail-ins returned (+2.2)

[MT Treasurer]

Lol, pot isn't a major issue in this race.

[MT Treasurer]

What are Quist's and Gianforte's stances on free trade and would their stances matter to anyone in certain parts of the state?

Trade hasn't really been a major issue in this race. Quist talked about closing tax loopholes for companies that are out-sourcing jobs overseas and reforming the tax code for small businesses, etc., while Gianforte (enough with this now ) wants to expand free trade, unsurprisingly. He apparently agrees with Trump that TPP was a bad deal the US.

Take all of this with a grain of salt, of course.

Maybe one reason that google consumer polls have crazy regional divides is that Flathead's younger people are crossing over for a hometown populist?

I'm not sure that's the case, but it would help make the divide a canyon.

I doubt that's the case, and it still wouldn't explain such an incredibly wide gap. Quist might do better than Bullock in Flathead while Gianforte might do significantly better (>5-point win) in Yellowstone than he did in 2012, but other than that I doubt you'll see many abnormalities.

[MT Treasurer]

^Missoula is the second-largest city in the state and a Democratic stronghold.