2018 Senate Rankings

[MT Treasurer]

I never said that. But even if we assume that Trump is at -8/9 nationally in 2018 (which obviously wouldn't be good), that doesn't mean he will unpopular in a state like MT or WV. A lot of his opposition is really concentrated in deep blue, heavily populated states like CA and NY. So while that could help Ds in the House (especially in suburban areas), it wouldn't have a big impact on the Senate races.

[MT Treasurer]

^ TX isn't happening. Barring some R from another senate class in a competitive-enough state abruptly dying or resigning, the only path for a dem majority in the senate goes through a three-way race in Utah, probably involving Hatch making it through his primary by a hair (goes into the general very damaged), a strong McMullin Independent Candidacy, and Matheson being the dem nominee.

And even that would require Democrats to hold all their red states, which is even less likely than a D victory in Utah.

[MT Treasurer]

Why did you move MT from Likely to Leans D?

[MT Treasurer]

My rankings:

1. Nevada (Likely D)
2. Arizona (Lean D)
3. Missouri (Tossup/Tilt R)
4. Indiana (Tossup/Tilt R)
5. West Virginia (Tossup)
6. Montana (Tilt D)
7. Ohio (Tilt/Lean D)

I have hard time seeing any other state flip, tbh.

[MT Treasurer]

Next up, Montana. Tester may not be popular, but he doesn't have a strong opponent to run against, so he's a Likely D now. That will only change if a strong candidate comes in by the June deadline.

What June deadline? The filing deadline for the June primary election was March 12.

[MT Treasurer]

Menendez is definitely more likely to win than Tester, lol.

[MT Treasurer]

If MT is Likely D, then MN-S, NJ, PA and WI should be Safe D. And probably OH as well.

[MT Treasurer]

*tears*. Well done, haha.

[MT Treasurer]

Here's what I think now



as for the tossups not colored in, if I had to push them firearm to head, I will tilt all of them to dems except for TN. I feel the least confident pushing WV out of those 7 though.

Ps. sorry if you saw ND as safe R, that was a typo, I meant it to be at lean R like it shows now.

NM and VA only Likely D? Also don’t see how WV is a Tossup even if we’re being generous to Republicans. Morrisey is honestly one of the worst Republican candidates this year and would probably lose even if they’re having a good night.

[MT Treasurer]

WV not at likely D lol.

So you’re saying we shouldn’t trust polling at all?

[MT Treasurer]

It’s been a while, and this will most likely be my last update before the election unless something changes dramatically.

(IA = MN-Special, AL = MS-Special)

47 Republicans, 47 Democrats, 6 Toss-ups

AZ: Likely D -> Lean D (Likely D was probably a bridge too far, but I’d say Sinema's still a slight favorite here. I could definitely see this and/or MT going Republican [narrowly] if the GOP has a better than expected night, though.)

OH/WV: Lean D -> Likely D (I don’t think an explanation is needed, honestly. Democrats should win both states unless 2018 turns out to be a 2014-style R year. Morrisey and Renacci have been major disappointments, honestly.)

TX: Lean R -> Likely R (Cruz might underperform, but he should be fine.)

However, I still think Republicans are well-positioned to win all the Toss-up races (ND/MS-Special/TN/MO/IN/FL in that order, with FL the one I’m least sure about).

[MT Treasurer]

^Not that bad, but calling ND a Likely R race is overreaction. I also think TN is still a Toss-up.