There is no firewall, it is a myth. What there is a that PA, MI, WI, IA, NH, MN have a slight D+ PVI ranging from IA at 0 to MN at +4. Where the GOP struggles in the PV not the EV. If the GOP candidate ever got 52% of the PV, all those state except MN would fall and MN would be a Dem win of about 1%.
Nate uses statistics, you use your feelings. 70% is based on what modeling??? Show me how the number was calculated. Take about rejecting science.
When is a Republican going to get to 52% though? Fact of the matter is that a Democrat can probably lose the PV by around a percentage point yet still win the EC. That by no means indicates that a Democrat is a shoo-in but rather that any Democrat starts the electoral race with a headstart independent of the various "fundamentals."
That scenario is so unlikely. It is MUCH more likely that a Republican wins the EC but loses the PV.
Explain to me how how exactly is so unlikely? The Democrats have an EC advantage these days (albeit a very narrow one), that's what the recent electoral data illustrates. Obama had a lead of 5% in the "tipping point" state of CO while winning the national PV by 3.86 points. So a uniform national swing of 1.1 points to the right would have still left enough states in the Obama column to get him to 270.
They also have a PV advantage (2000 proved that). Let's just assume they win the Electoral College 270-268, okay? That would mean they lose FL, OH, IA, CO and NC. I have a hard time seeing the GOP win the popular vote while losing Virginia. The Democrats get huge margins in the big states like CA and NY, while the Republicans win their big states FL, NC and GA much less decisively. Also, small states like WY and ND are overrepresented in the EC. In 2000, almost everyone talked about how the Dems had the Electoral College advantage and how Bush could win the PV while losing EV, and well... you know what happened. It happened for the same reasons I mentioned.
Nate Silver is such a joke. Any analysis he has to do that doesn't involve averaging polls and he is very quickly found out as a complete charlatan. You gotta admire his ability to trick dumbs into thinking he's some objective analytical political genius though.
Yeah, he is way overrated. The media hypes him too much. Even I predicted last year that Republicans would win KS and NC, he got it wrong.
