European elections in 2024 (user search)
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  European elections in 2024 (search mode)
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Author Topic: European elections in 2024  (Read 1436 times)
DavidB.
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« on: January 07, 2024, 02:05:04 PM »

Interested in anyone else's predictions.
Most of your predictions seem reasonable. It will be interesting to see whether Austrian ÖVP will enter a coalition with FPÖ when ÖVP are the junior partner. Previous FPÖ coalitions have always worked out well for them, but they were the senior partner then.

In Romania I think AUR teaming up with PSD feels more likely than AUR teaming up with PNL. PSD are more conservative.

In Belgium, watch the numbers for a second round of Vivaldi, possibly extended with the Walloon (former?) Christian Democrats. Everyone will say this isn't possible, but they could well win a majority in parliament and there is a reason this option emerged last time too. Watch Flanders though: VB/N-VA is a real possibility on the regional level and it would mean the country enters unchartered territory.

In general I believe the mood has changed quite radically in Europe. Le Pen is the favorite to win the next French presidential election and the cordon sanitaire around AfD is bound to break down in the coming years. I don't think most people understand how immense of a shift could take place in Europe. Change always occurs slowly at first - and then everything at once.
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