🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 3.0

[DavidB.]

What's Chega's Russia stance? Would PSD enter a coalition with them?

[DavidB.]

Very remarkable developments; this says a lot about the health and independence of the Portuguese judiciary. Will Costa be replaced by someone else or will the entire PS government resign, with snap elections coming soon?

[DavidB.]

I received wildly differing results for the two voting calculators. Chega was clearly and overwhelmingly on top in both, but otherwise completely different orders. This is probably because the Observador one focused excessively on socio-economic issues, while "Who to vote for?" had a broader focus and seems more accurate. Nice visualizations too.

[DavidB.]

Which are considered to be the reasons for the increase in turnout? My hunch would be that it is at least partly thanks to the fact that the party system (of parties that are relevant and can make it in) has expanded, which offers voters a broader choice.

[DavidB.]

So PSD and Chega have a clear center-right majority. No excuses about a 'deadlock' for Montenegro. No IL needed either.

[DavidB.]

If you want to talk about Chega pulling from the PS, look nowhere other than Faro. Chega currently leads the PS there by .11%. They may not hold it, since Faro city has most of the remaining votes, but it is a prominent result nonetheless.

Looks like Chega has definitely won Faro district which covers the Algarve.

[DavidB.]

On these numbers it's almost impossible there hasn't been a substantial direct PS -> CH voter movement.

[DavidB.]

To what extent is it certain that many/most of these ADN votes are 'mistaken' votes meant to be cast for AD?

[DavidB.]

They are now at more than 90,000 votes. Not a small number at all. If most of these votes are truly cast in error that's pretty shocking - and in this case it could actually be decisive for the question of which party becomes the biggest too.

[DavidB.]

24 of the 43 seats yet to be filled are in Lisbon.

Including in Benfica. Curious to see how Ventura will do there.

[DavidB.]

Jesus!! Every vote does count.

Porto, my district, just finished counting and AD won by... 1,012 votes out of 1,115,025.

The second and last seat in Portoalegre was won by CH by 783 votes (over AD). Out of more than 60,000 total votes cast, this difference was decisive for the distribution of 50% of the total seats in the constituency (1 out of 2).

[DavidB.]

PAN has won a seat in Lisbon.

[DavidB.]

Looks like Chega's voting pattern is typical for European nationalist right-wing parties in that they do best in peripheral areas with working-class voters, although fairly well distributed over the entire country and over most areas - and is in that regard different from the pattern of Spanish Vox, which follows the Latin American pattern of wealthier = more right-wing more closely.

[DavidB.]

Looks like ADN will surpass the symbolic number of 100,000 votes.

[DavidB.]

Are parties listed in alphabetical order on the ballot, meaning ADN was on top of the ballot? In that case, the mistake would be slightly understandable and it would be a monumentally stupid mistake for PSD and allies to have that letter soup on the ballot instead of re-registering as AD.