🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[DavidB.]

This poll is basically the result of the PS election: all parties' Senate seat count *2 = this. If the coalition collapses, a BBB vs. PvdA/GL two-horse race scenario isn't unthinkable. Lots of parties face interesting questions in the coming months. Let's list the most relevant ones:

BBB: BBB need to choose between being cooperative on a provincial level and  risking to lose voters (and potentially elected officials); or taking a harder line, which will possibly cause massive electoral gains in the next General Election but which will make coalition building very difficult, and which may also risk them falling victim to the "you don't take responsibility" line by Rutte, which works very well with Dutch center-right voters and basically killed off the PVV before.

In the end, in our system, BBB will need to cooperate with CDA and VVD at some point if they want to get anything done. Also worth noting that BBB probably won too many seats for the sake of their own stability. Still, their future looks very bright, particularly if former CDA (and now Independent) MP Pieter Omtzigt joins them. If I had to bet on anyone as our next PM, I'd pick Omtzigt.

VVD: The VVD need to ride this storm out. They are in for a bludgeoning if elections take place soon, but Rutte has faced numerous crises and survived all of them. The VVD probably need to embrace 2035 as a target for the nitrogen emission reduction and hope D66 can accept this. They are helped by D66's abysmal polls.

The question is what leeway provincial VVD branches will get in forging coalitions with BBB - coalitions that possibly don't align with the national government's nitrogen policy. The biggest risk for the VVD: a BBB-PvdA/GL two-horse race campaign, which could happen both sooner and later.

It feels as if the national "mood" has changed and Rutte is "past his sell-by date", but he is a true political survivor. At some point his luck (or ability to navigate situations) will run out, but I wouldn't count him out at any point.

PvdA-GL: Things are starting to look better for the two left-wing parties. Their election result was underwhelming and in terms of vote total, they even had a slight net loss: 1+1 turned out to be 1.9, rather than 3. Still, "in the land of the blind, the one-eyed is king" - with so many small political groups, size matters and so does momentum.

I expect PvdA-GL to come up with a similar construction for the next parliamentary election: both parties running separate slates, whose elected officials will form one group, with one campaign and two co-leaders, presumably with one clear candidate for Prime Minister. With the VVD in trouble, this is the opportunity for PvdA-GL to go hard and force a two-horse race with BBB.

The big question is: who will be the PM candidate for PvdA-GL? Frans Timmermans is a potential candidate, but has a job until the summer next year - and does he want it? And does GL want him? It's not obvious the top job belongs to an old (and white) PvdA guy when GL is bigger both in the polls and in the Senate.

Other potential options are:

- Rotterdam mayor Ahmed Aboutaleb (+: statesmanlike stature, foreign background; -: not a good debater, has enemies, "good on paper, bad in practice", better at governing than at being a politician, PvdA)

- Amsterdam mayor Femke Halsema (+: woman; GL; liberal, can reach out to D66 voters; -: very elitist public image and thereby very vulnerable to this kind of attack, particularly coming from BBB; being in Amsterdam doesn't help; not a lot of friends in both PvdA and even GL)

- GL parliamentary leader Jesse Klaver (+: GL, foreign background, strong debater; -: not sure whether PvdA base will embrace him; man)

- Other, less likely potential options include PvdA parliamentary leader Attje Kuiken, PvdA Amsterdam leader Marjolein Moorman, former PvdA leader Lodewijk Asscher (but was killed off politically by GL over his involvement in the childcare benefits scandal...), and GL Senate leader Paul Rosenmöller.

CDA: In tatters. If they don't blow up the coalition, their voters will definitely flock to BBB. If they do blow up the coalition, their voters will probably still flock to BBB. After their big loss, it is quite incredible they are still one of the five biggest political forces in the Netherlands, which shows just how bad fragmentation is. Many parties here have a temporary problem, but the CDA faces an existential issue - they have governed for far too long without a profile. Wopke Hoekstra turns out to be a horrible leader: he looks like a consultant who could be in the VVD, or in D66, or even in JA21, but there is nothing "CDA" about him.

Part of this is about the inevitable trend of secularization and depillarization, but I believe it is too easy an excuse and in reality only a small part of the reason of the CDA's decline. Many Dutchmen could still vote for a CDA - just not this one, so devoid of ideas. Sybrand Buma's final attempt to salvage the party (by steering it into a more conservative direction) in 2017 was more notable and more successful than he received credit for.

I don't think the CDA will find the way up again. Too much infighting, too reliant on the wrong ideas. Their only chance (and it is a big one) is to beg Omtzigt to return and take over the leadership and cleanse the entire party from corrupted influences, but they are probably too stubborn to do so and will die off. Goodbye and good riddance, I am inclined to say.

D66: A party with a massive problem. Presenting Sigrid Kaag under the guise of "time for new leadership" (as opposed to Rutte's old leadership) in the 2021 election campaign was a massive success. Then, during the coalition negotiations that followed, she told Rutte: "our paths separate here". And then, she entered a coalition under his leadership. They extracted a very heavy price from the VVD and won the negotiations, which is now at the heart of the nitrogen reduction conflict: during the coalition talks, it already became clear that even 2035 would be a nearly unrealistic target, but still 2030 was agreed. I believe this can now be called a pyrrhic victory.

What to do now? Everybody knows that after the BBB win, 2030 is untenable. But will D66 accept this? If they do so, PvdA/GL will overtake them on the left and their voters will be inclined to follow. If D66 don't accept 2035, the coalition is likely to collapse, D66 are set to lose a lot because good luck with a new campaign based on "new leadership", and their voters may flock to PvdA/GL anyway. In the end, D66 were always going to be vulnerable on their left flank, being in government for six years without any other left-wing forces (counting out the ambiguous case of CU here).

PVV: I'm getting repetitive. But the PVV also has a serious problem. Losing once - to Forum, in 2019 - can be an accident. Losing twice - to BBB, this year - is a pattern. In the end, thinking the PVV would bounce back so easily (which I did) was too easy to think and this conclusion should have been drawn after the 2021 GE already, when the PVV lost too, despite Forum having (virtually) collapsed already.

The PVV's problems are quite clear. There is a big pool of voters who sympathize with them, but few people who are really loyal and stick to them. Wilders is also unable to receive any momentum during an election campaign, which is due to several factors: they have no membership, so no money (and no subsidies) for campaigning, which are crucial in an increasingly crowded field; Wilders boycotts most media; Wilders is excluded by most parties and therefore building a coalition with him is unrealistic, which is why a vote for him is seen as a lost vote.

The biggest problem, however, is the crowding on the right. Competing with Forum hurt the PVV; then, competing with Forum and JA21 hurt the PVV; now, competing with Forum, JA21, BBB and BVNL is hurting them even more. BBB have momentum on offer and are "the true protest vote", JA21 have coalitionability on offer, Forum have being the anti-system party ("the real alternative", in their words) on offer.

None of this will change - so then the PVV should. If Wilders doesn't change his tune, the PVV will turn from one of the biggest poles in the Dutch political spectrum into just another splinter, just another voice in the crowd. Is he able and willing to do so? Probably not.

PvdD: Finally a party without a problem. Under the leadership of Esther Ouwehand, the PvdD has become less of a generic pro-animal/anti-system party and more of a typical hard-left party (of the alternative variety) focused on animal justice and fighting climate change as radically as possible; probably best comparable to the Danish Alternative party. And this is a success. They keep growing. Last year, they also entered a coalition on the local level for the first time.

The question is: what will be the next step? Coalitions are always formed somewhere in the center. The maths simply don't add up for the left. This means actual government cooperation is unlikely. The PvdD's pitch is that they don't compromise - on a national level, I'm inclined to believe them. This means that at some point they will probably hit a ceiling. But with climate remaining a very salient issue, they still have room to grow. An interesting question: will good polls for GL/PvdA hurt the PvdD's numbers?

SP: Back to a party with a problem. The SP keeps declining and party leader Lilian Marijnissen isn't able to stop the bleeding. Her problem: the SP is proven "right" on many issues, with other parties moving toward the SP's positions on themes like neoliberalism, but no one will flock to the SP as a result.

With more "internationalist socialist" figures having left the party, Marijnissen is moving more and more into the "left-conservative" lane, but faces competition with (more centrist, but with a "social" face) BBB here. The SP has shifted back towards more criticism of immigration (but mostly labor immigration), but climate remains a more difficult issue to navigate.

If I were the SP, I'd pick either lane; unabashedly internationalist socialist, or full Danish Social Democrats style. It's clear where my preference is, but the first option would work too. The confusion doesn't. Doctrinally, their stance is probably "correct", but it doesn't win you any voters.

One last thing, which is less relevant electorally but still interesting to note: with the departure of the "internationalist socialist" types, the "activist" types who are more strictly socialist have left too, which has made the SP a lot more supportive of NATO and very outspokenly supportive of Ukraine. A couple of years ago, with Harry van Bommel and Sadet Karabulut in parliament, this would have been more difficult to imagine.

I discussed the ChristenUnie a few posts above and will stop here: the other parties are too small and their movement in any direction won't cause a substantial change in the Dutch political landscape. A potential exception would be a serious compromise by BBB on the theme of immigration, which could cause JA21 (who gained, but did much better in the polls and have become the "victim" of BBB's success) to grow further.

[DavidB.]

Following exploratory talks with all parties, Zuid-Holland coalition investigator Fred Teeven suggests the formation of a coalition with BBB, VVD, CDA, PvdA and GL in the most populous province of the country - without D66.

If this doesn't work, his second suggestion is a right-wing coalition with BBB, VVD, CDA, PVV and JA21. Apparently, as was noted by Teeven explicitly, this option isn't excluded by any of these parties. The fact that the option to govern with the PVV is even on the table would have been unthinkable four years ago.

[DavidB.]

Nope, no path to a government on these numbers - but after a nationwide campaign these numbers will look different anyway. But an Israel/Bulgaria scenario isn't far away.

As for polls - Kantar hasn't published any new ones for almost a year and was absent in the runup to the PS/Senate election, so I think we can assume they dropped out. Press F to pay respects. Over the last years, EenVandaag/Ipsos has had a pretty substantial pro-VVD bias and tends to underpoll "populist" parties. De Hond (Peil) has the most wild swings, but usually has the trends correct. He is an outspoken, controversial figure in the Netherlands, but he is good at his job and his polls aren't worse than the others, although his house effect is that he underpolls the VVD (and used to overpoll "populist" parties, but not anymore). Before the 2021 GE, I&O had a left-wing bias, but they seem to have fixed the problem. Their "balls to the wall" poll on the Sunday before the PS23 election looked extreme, but was completely correct; BBB momentum made the outcome even better for them, but that doesn't mean the poll was incorrect. So I'd say all three remaining pollsters are good, but I'd rate I&O and Peil above Ipsos.

That said, I'd normally expect the VVD to do a little better in a GE poll vis-a-vis the PS election because of higher turnout in a first-order election among low-propensity blue collar voters who either vote VVD or not at all, a demographic I mentioned earlier right before the election. In the general elections of 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2021, Rutte won 1.9 to 2.5 million voters every time (2.5 in 2012). In the PS elections of 2011, 2015, 2019 and 2023, this number was 860k to 1.3 million (1.3 in 2011). In local and European elections, the dropoff is even worse. Of course, turnout in second-order elections is lower in general, but the VVD's dropoff is highly disproportionally bad for them. All of this goes to show that the VVD cannot be underestimated based on second-order elections. But if the VVD is truly going to lose, we're in unchartered territory compared to the entire Rutte era and it's unsure what this demographic will do.

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A different subject: NRC had a highly fascinating article on the Senate election. All parties have their "mathematicians" lined up to think of striking deals with others to optimize their outcome. Bottom line: if the government plays its game well, it can win one and perhaps even two more seats in the Senate by tactical voting; this would require CDA and CU to receive votes from VVD and D66. Even one more seat would make a difference for the coalition, as they have a majority together with PvdA/GL in that case. BBB, PVV and SGP are at risk of losing their last virtual seat.

[DavidB.]

EU Commissioner for the Environment Virginijus Sinkevicius sent a letter to the Dutch government stating that the EU doesn't accept any delay in the Netherlands reaching its nitrogen targets. He did so on the day Nature & Nitrogen Minister Van der Wal (VVD) - the one who insisted on no delay on election night - visited Brussels. His letter was sent in Dutch (edit: apparently not). And EU regulation says nothing about specific nitrogen emission reduction targets, but only about the recovery of nature and the increase of biodiversity. 2030 or 2035 aren't EU targets.

Something smells very fishy here. You don't have to be a conspiracy theorist to think that maybe his letter wasn't even written in Brussels, but in The Hague. Independent MP Pieter Omtzigt already filed a transparency request to the EU regarding all information about the letter and the meeting between Sinkevicius and Van der Wal.

Even if Van der Wal only made suggestions with regard to the content of the letter, this is explosive - it would be the perfect alibi for the CDA to pull the plug.

[DavidB.]

Here we go. In Friesland, coalition "explorer" Chris Stoffer (SGP) calls on the national government to drop the proposed new 50% nitrogen reduction target in 2030, NRC reports. In a statement, Stoffer notes Friesland will become "ungovernable" if this target is pushed through, as "nearly all" parties refuse to abide by this target but also don't want to break the law. My expectation: we will see this in many more provinces.

For BBB, "2030" and forced buyouts of farmers are a red line in every province - and in Friesland it seems most other parties agree. BBB Friesland leader Abel Kooistra says he "didn't ask" Stoffer to add this call on the national government to his final advise, but that he completely agrees.

In Friesland, BBB is now set to form a government with PvdA, CDA and ChristenUnie. Different options were possible, but this combination was deemed the best due to its broad ideological scope and experience in the provincial government, which BBB itself lacks.

--

Peil.nl polled preferences for different nitrogen scenarios. Left above = speed up 50% reduction target to 2030, right above = keep 2035 as target year, left below = after 2035, right below = drop 50% reduction target entirely.

Overwhelming numbers of D66, GL, PvdD, Volt and PvdA voters support 2030 - interesting that D66 voters are more "extreme" on this than PvdD voters. But a plurality of VVD, CU (although particularly divided...) and a big majority of CDA voters want to keep 2035. A plurality of BBB voters want to drop the targets entirely, but it seems their base is quite divided - just like the public in general (allen = all voters). But all in all, 67% want to keep 2035 or are even more "lenient" when it comes to nitrogen emissions, while only 30% support the government target of 2030 which was in the coalition agreement and is still supposed to become the law.

[DavidB.]

Coalition finished crisis negotiations. CDA threatened to leave the government. Tensions are eased now. CDA demand renegotiations on nitrogens. D66 didn’t want government to collapse. Government agreed on a temporary “break” in adopting new nitrogen legislation, awaiting provincial government negotiations. Then renegotiations of the nitrogen section in the coalition agreement will follow. Which begs the confusing question: are provinces leading now? Or will they have to readjust their policy later again? The latter seems difficult to imagine. And then this is a CDA win.

In Zeeland, the coalition explorer recommends a right-wing coalition of BBB, SGP, VVD and CDA. Would be good news for nuclear energy: Borssele-II should be built here and all these parties are pro-nuclear.

[DavidB.]

D66 are a cucked party episode 754. They seem to be the big losers from this situation now, which is no mean feat given CDA are in a more existential crisis.

It's a bad look, but the remainder of the coalition agreement is still very much a document with D66's fingerprints most prominently on it, particularly the sections on climate. And as for nitrogens, even 2035 was deemed "too ambitious" before the negotiations of this government started. D66 just bit off more than they can chew, which produced this BBB victory. Now, they can spin their U-turn as "the responsible choice" to keep the government in office, as opposed to GL's "idealistic choices without any effect in the real world", which led then to never being part of any government. They can also say new elections probably wouldn't have led to a more "progressive" new government, looking at the probable Senate configuration. And they wouldn't be wrong.

The biggest argument for D66 telling CDA to shove it is that GL-PvdA aren't ready for elections, which provides D66 with the opportunity to push for Kaagmentum once more. But it's a big risk: their attempt to do this failed in the PS election too.

[DavidB.]

Peil.nl today. BBB 2 seats short of the entire coalition. Hard not to think De Hond is underpolling VVD by a lot here, though, and perhaps CDA too:


The government wants to reduce the VAT rate on fruits and vegetables from the high rate (21%) to the low rate (9%) but is unable to do so because the IT systems that the Tax Authority runs on hail from the 80s - according to independent auditors, the government is at risk of losing hundreds of millions in tax income if these systems aren't replaced as soon as possible. Weirdly, it does seem possible to increase VAT on soft drinks. Deputy Minister Maarten van Ooijen (ChristenUnie), who seems to live for sin taxes, will now levy the high VAT rate instead of the low VAT rate on soft drinks. Unlikely collateral damage: oat milk and other replacements for actual milk are considered soft drinks and will therefore be subject to a whopping 196% tax increase. Not that those buying oat milk can't afford it - but still interesting, to say the least.

[DavidB.]

In Flevoland, there will be an attempt to form a right-wing coalition consisting of BBB, VVD, PVV, ChristenUnie and SGP, potentially joined by JA21 who are not needed for a majority but could make the coalition stronger. A very interesting situation. Almost seems unthinkable that CU and PVV would cooperate.

BBB apparently preferred cooperation with VVD and PvdA. The PvdA only want to govern together with GL - but BBB and VVD don't want both PvdA and GL. BBB also prefer not to cooperate with FVD. CU claim cooperating with the PVV would be "difficult" - but will it be impossible? Let's see...

[DavidB.]

In Noord-Holland, coalition explorer Ankie Broekers-Knol (VVD) suggests the formation of a coalition of BBB, VVD, GroenLinks and PvdA.

In Gelderland, BBB leader Rik Loeters has stated he wants to form a coalition with VVD, CDA, SGP and JA21.

[DavidB.]

Debate about election result and nitrogen is taking place now. Constitutionally there is an unprecedented situation, because the government has to be unified (for this reason, CDA Deputy Minister Mona Keijzer was fired after criticizing the COVID QR code system) and it isn't, because the CDA want to negotiate a change in the coalition agreement somewhere in the future, and it is unclear when. They want this moment to depend on the progress in an agricultural pact between the government and agricultural organizations, and on the negotiations in the provinces. But the provinces don't know whether they have to abide by 2030 (coalition agreement target) or 2035 (current law) to receive money from the so-called Transition Fund, and all parties have to admit it is not completely clear. D66 and VVD can't rule out provinces receiving money even if they don't abide by 2030, but say they still have to "aim for" 2030. Guess what: BBB-led provincial governments won't.

I don't have a crystal ball, but I don't see how the government survives longer than a few more months. The debate shows D66 is too committed to 2030 to let it go; CDA is too committed to renegotiating it. The only possible compromise would be 2032 or 2033, but it would be a suicidal compromise for both D66 and CDA. I'd bet on a snap election in the autumn.

[DavidB.]

- Negotiations for an agricultural pact between the government and stakeholders have broken down.

- Coalition formation is still ongoing in all provinces. It seems BBB prefers "grand coalitions" including PvdA (and sometimes GL too) almost everywhere, including in provinces where they could govern with CDA, VVD and JA21 alone. In some provinces (Limburg, Groningen, Drenthe), the PvdA have let go of GL to form a coalition with BBB, which causes bad blood within GL. Meanwhile, D66 used to be part of the coalition in about half of the provinces but are now sidelined everywhere - while GL is still set to govern in a good number of provinces. This is Jetten's strategy of D66's repositioning as "climate nagger party", which has successfully taken issue ownership over environmental and climate issues from GL by placing it in the most extreme position besides PvdD, coming back as a boomerang for D66.

- Richard de Mos, leader of the biggest party in The Hague (Groep De Mos/Hart voor Den Haag), has been completely acquitted from all corruption charges in court today, and the judge did not hold back in rebuking the claims. De Mos' party became the biggest in 2018 and again in 2022. They entered the city government in 2018, but the coalition collapsed in 2019 when the public prosecutor had announced a criminal investigation against De Mos, after which a new coalition was formed without De Mos. In 2022, other parties excluded De Mos. The bitter conclusion is that the public prosecutor's wrong judgment call has had a major impact on policy in The Hague for two city government terms. Not holding my breath for Neelie Kroes (VVD) to be subject of a similar investigation after flouting the cooling-down rules and lobbying for Uber illegally. This country has one standard for one type of politicians and another standard for another type. Donations from small businesses, rooted in one's community, are "suspect" - but for big multinational oligarchs all doors are always open.

- I&O - the new gold standard, imo - had a poll on April 17, the first one since the PS election:
https://twitter.com/AukevanEijsden/status/1649057266220568577

I was skeptical about the VVD losing more support after the PS election but this confirms it. Really bad numbers for the government in general. The right-wing opposition is at an all-time high:

https://twitter.com/AukevanEijsden/status/1649058966436036610

[DavidB.]

Is there any reconsideration of the growing alignment between GL and PVDA? From the outside it seems odd that they would compete together for these elections and then not even form government together. The PVDA as an establishment, pragmatic party of the centre-left does seem an awkward fit for an idealistic, strongly progressive-left party like GL.

Some members in both parties are unhappy, and this sentiment has increased over the last weeks, but it is not (yet) the sort of wave that can prevent the merger. But maybe dissatisfaction will grow after these coalitions with PvdA without GL actually become reality.

Here a good infographic on the coalitions that are now formed:
https://twitter.com/ErikuutLoo/status/1649658616310276097?s=20

[DavidB.]

Finally: PS election results per polling station (although DENK and SGP are missing - apparently they only cared about the X biggest parties, which is sloppy). It was calculated that almost half of the BBB votes come from urban areas.

[DavidB.]

Finally: PS election results per polling station (although DENK and SGP are missing - apparently they only cared about the X biggest parties, which is sloppy). It was calculated that almost half of the BBB votes come from urban areas.

Better version, this time including SGP: https://www.volkskrant.nl/kijkverder/v/2023/wat-stemde-uw-wijk-bekijk-hier-de-uitslagen-van-de-provinciale-statenverkiezingen-in-uw-stembureau~v678958/.

[DavidB.]

Not a lot going on in the Netherlands. Could be calm before the storm. Biggest news item has been Caroline van der Plas (BBB) refusing to attend Zelensky's last-minute visit to Parliament on National Memorial Day since she found it inappropriate to conflate the war in Ukraine with it, even though she supports Ukraine. She's received quite a lot of backlash for that, but went down only by one seat in the Peil.nl poll which was conducted over the weekend. I don't think her voters will really care about this.

Meanwhile, BBB has been booted out of the negotiations in Utrecht. After BBB and GL had broken down negotiations, the explorer had suggested to form a coalition of BBB, VVD, CDA, CU, SGP, JA21 and Volt - without GL. But Utrecht is the most left-liberal province and Volt had no business in such a coalition, although it was CU that immediately struck down the idea too. Now, some combination of GL, PvdA, VVD and D66 will probably enter provincial government, meaning that there will at least be one province where D66 won't stand on the sideline.

[DavidB.]

Today, the election of the new Senate took place. The members of the twelve newly elected Provincial States, the electoral college Bonaire, Saba & St Eustatius and the new electoral college non-residents (for Dutch voters abroad) convened to do so. Results were announced on the spot and will be made official tomorrow:

Seats (compared to 2019):

BBB 16 (+16)
VVD 10 (-2)
GL 7 (-1)
PvdA 7 (+1)
CDA 6 (-3)
D66 5 (-2)
PVV 4 (-1)
SP 3 (-1)
PvdD 3 (nc)
JA21 3 (+3)
ChristenUnie 3 (-1)
Forum voor Democratie 2 (-10)
SGP 2 (nc)
Volt 2 (+2)
50Plus 1 (-1)
Independent 1 (nc)

Government 24 (-8)

Compared to the prognosis after the March election, BBB, PVV and GL lost one seat; CDA, CU and Volt won one. This leaves the government with 24 seats, 2 more than in the prognosis, which is relevant as they now have a majority together with the combined GL-PvdA parliamentary group (they ran two different slates but will form one group): 38 seats, the bare minimum. This means they can use both a "left-wing road" and a "right-wing road" (with BBB) to a majority.

It was already expected that D66 and VVD members would vote CDA and CU to maximize the government's seat number. They did so at least in Overijssel, where 2 VVD members voted CDA and one D66 member for CU. In Zeeland, on the other hand, a CU member voted for the SGP to secure them their second seat.

Unplanned, on the other hand, was GroenLinks Member of the PS Debora Fernald voting for Volt in Zuid-Holland. This cost GL its eight seat and handed Volt its second one (and she was immediately kicked out of GL in Zuid-Holland; their group leader Sinan Özkaya stormed out of the session in emotion and shock). As a result, GL and PvdA will be exactly as big as they were in the previous term: together they have 14 seats. Kind of a PR bummer for merger supporters, but because of the government's two additional seats, the left-wing road to a Senate majority remains open.

A Senate election with no drama is no fun anyway. The best example remains the D66 member who, in 2011, voted with his ballpoint pen in blue instead of with the red pencil provided by the Provincial States, rendering his vote invalid and costing D66 a seat (which went to the SP). Last time, in 2019, an FVD member voted for the SGP to secure them their second seat. And in 2007, GL member Cheryl Braam was so over the moon she could vote for the Senate that she voted for all GL candidates when she should have voted for one candidate only - result: an invalid vote and a Senate seat changing hands. The complicated electoral system (with different vote weights for different provinces, based on their population) in which individual Members of the Provincial States hold an unusual amount of power always leads to surprising outcomes.

https://twitter.com/CrazyDutchPol/status/1663583230237319168

[DavidB.]

- MEP Sophie in 't Veld, the European Parliament delegation leader for D66 since 2004 (!), has left her party and has become a Volt member. In an open letter to D66 members this morning, she decries the decreased focus on Europe within the party, the lack of innovative, radical thinking on Europe, and the way the party has dealt with (sexual) harassment cases in the past years. The latter point implicitly refers to the Frans van Drimmelen case, a prominent consultant and high-level D66 member who harassed women, who felt they weren't being heard; it also refers to In 't Veld's only D66 colleague in the European Parliament, Samira Rafaela, with whom she is not on speaking terms and who was the subject of an investigation into harassment. Reading between the lines, it seems In 't Veld had been sidelined by the D66 leadership (Kaag, who was parachuted to the leadership and is not a D66 insider, and the people surrounding her) for a while. Being in Brussels for so long apparently creates a kind of distance, even in a pro-EU party like D66 and even when Brussels is geographically so close to the Netherlands. In 't Veld states that her future is in Europe, and it seems obvious she will be the #1 candidate for Volt. She would then be re-elected for sure.

- Coalition formation in the provinces is finally coming to an end - at least in some places. In Gelderland, where 60% of "peak polluters" in the agricultural sector reside (i.e. the ones the government wants to buy out), BBB, VVD, CDA, SGP and ChristenUnie formed a coalition. They agreed that 2035 will be the target year for nitrogen reduction and there will be no forced buyouts; a BBB win, and both a massive middle finger and a massive problem for the national government. Overijssel and Drenthe are to follow along these lines.

In Flevoland, meanwhile, a coalition with BBB, VVD, PVV, ChristenUnie and SGP was formed, which means the de-facto cordon sanitaire against the PVV post-2012 has been broken - not unexpectedly so, but I'd have placed my bets on Limburg being the place where it would happen, and certainly not on the ChristenUnie being part of it.

Things are more difficult in the big provinces of Zuid-Holland, where a BBB-VVD-GL-PvdA coalition is still investigated, and Noord-Brabant, where talks between these same parties have just collapsed.

- The new Senate has assumed office. The name of the combined GroenLinks and PvdA parliamentary group will be... GroenLinks-PvdA. Green first, red second; a fitting description of their course.

[DavidB.]

Negotiations for an agricultural pact between the government and organisations representing the agricultural sector have broken down. A big defeat for the government, first of all for Agriculture Minister Piet Adema (CU). Meanwhile, coalition after coalition is being formed on the provincial level, with BBB's demands - no forced buyouts, 2035 as target year instead of 2030 - honored everywhere, even in Zuid-Holland, where PvdA and GL are also in the coalition.

Now, the ball is in the CDA's court. They wanted to await the provincial coalition agreements and the agricultural pact before entering new negotiations with VVD, D66 and CU over the content of the coalition agreement regarding nitrogen and agriculture. This is the moment. It could be a hot summer for the govenrment.

Meanwhile, the government has failed to find a blocking minority for EU Commissioners Timmermans and Sinkevicius' Nature Restoration Law in the Council (no veto power on this theme). It cannot be understated how massive the effect of this EU regulation will be on the Netherlands. If the European Parliament does not vote it off the table in plenary, the nitrogen crisis will be dwarved by this. To be continued too...

[DavidB.]

Because we don't have any real problems like compensating victims of the Groningen earthquake scandal, or compensating the victims of the childcare benefit scandal, or fixing the nitrogen crisis, or record inflation, or asylum immigration being out of control and people sleeping outside again this summer, or a massive housing crisis, the government is focusing on what's really needed.

According to them, that means increasing the excise tax on car fuels per July 1 and introducing - per 2030 - a new way of pricing car usage which will make driving more expensive for people who drive a lot, including for commuters who work essential jobs - incredibly enough, people will also have to pay for kilometers driven abroad.

But the worst thought-out plan was presented by Healthcare Deputy Minister Maarten van Ooijen (ChristenUnie), who wants to ban wine (and all alcoholic drinks with an alcohol percentage over 6%) from supermarkets, all alcohol from canteens at sports clubs (so no beer after a football game at your local amateur club; RIP these clubs), and no alcohol sales after 10 PM anymore. Apparently the Taliban has not just taken power in Afghanistan but also in the Netherlands. I expect VVD and D66 to strike down some of the worst components in here, and undoubtedly some of these idiotic ideas are only in the plan to make sure the slightly less bad ones pass, but the way things are moving I don't intend to ever move back to this Godforsaken country anymore.

/rant

[DavidB.]

Don't forget you can still buy a big, fat blunt until well after midnight though, because CU won't be able to take away this crown jewel from D66. Good business opportunity.

[DavidB.]

Has Pieter Omtzigt made any indication of his future political intentions?

Whilst on the surface he seems BBB-compatible he may be better off running on his own list.

It is not clear yet. Van der Plas is evidently courting him and he is 100% BBB compatible. The question seems to be whether his ego can accept joining a party in which someone else is already a superstar (too) and won an election. But if they run together, it would have the potential for a political earthquake (50+ seats) that would break our party system and attract voters from all sides. If they run separately, either BBB's flame or Omtzigt's flame will extinguish.

[DavidB.]

Don't forget you can still buy a big, fat blunt until well after midnight though, because CU won't be able to take away this crown jewel from D66. Good business opportunity.

Hmm I would say there is a perverse logic to this : the people in central Amsterdam causing mayhem are the public "lads on tour"-style drinkers, not the stoners. Those are just annoying.

Anyway its important to not blame the substance, but rather the type of people we're bringing up in the world.

That would actually be a logical reasoning (well, a reasoning for a local ban within central Amsterdam which wouldn't affect the other 99% of the Dutch population), but Deputy Minister Van Ooijen himself does not refer to Amsterdam, nor have I seen anything from him indicating his concern about alcohol consumption is a public order concern, which is not his portfolio anyway. For him, this is about public health.

And just as I dislike the hypocrisy of the countless number of countries that embrace alcohol collectively but have North Korean style sentences for peaceful weed smokers, I also dislike the Western tendency to ban smoking and drinking as much as possible but, at the same time, open up policy for weed more and more. This may be a very liberal Dutch opinion, but my opinion is: let people decide for themselves and let them live a little.

[DavidB.]

Four more provincial coalitions were formed. In Utrecht: GL-VVD-D66-CDA-PvdA. In Zuid-Holland: BBB-VVD-GroenLinks-CDA-PvdA. In Zeeland: BBB-SGP-CDA-VVD. And in Groningen: BBB-PvdA-CU-Groninger Belang.

Earlier on, coalitions were formed in Limburg (BBB-VVD-CDA-PvdA-SP), Gelderland (BBB-VVD-CDA-CU-SG) and Flevoland (BBB-VVD-CU-SGP-PVV).

On its way before the summer: Drenthe (BBB-VVD-PvdA-CDA).

Noord-Holland and Overijssel will take a bit longer; in Noord-Brabant and Friesland, negotiations have collapsed, with BBB (Noord-Brabant) and PvdA (Friesland) leaving the table.

[DavidB.]

Renske Leijten (SP) has announced she will resign as an MP coming Tuesday. In parliament since 2006, Leijten was one of the leading voices on healthcare and one of the three MPs (together with Pieter Omtzigt, formerly CDA, and Farid Azarkan, DENK) that worked tirelessly to uncover the childcare benefit scandal and its magnitude, over which the previous government resigned. She is leaving on good terms with the SP and has always remained loyal to the leadership - even if she is arguably more important than party leader Lilian Marijnissen - but her departure will massively contribute to the SP's descent into further irrelevancy and invisibility.