🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[DavidB.]

This might be a silly question but what is stopping the various FVD splitters (JA21, BVNL, Otten) from working together? Is it actual policy differences or just egos?

Not a silly question at all. Otten is an unpleasant person and a bully and continues to rant not only about Baudet but also about Eerdmans on Twitter, partly because he blames him for staying too long with FVD. JA21 think the events in November 2020 (trying to formulate this as neutrally as possible...) already showed that FVD is "tainted" and are very reluctant in cooperating with anyone who stayed after that point (i.e. BVNL). So basically everybody thinks they got out at the right moment.

There are some policy differences as well  - Van Haga goes all in on Covid skepticism while this was one of the JA21 people's issues of conflict with Baudet - but this seems secondary.

[DavidB.]

The Dutch clearly have egos on par with the British in terms of self-importance, and yet they are the most sectarian nation in Europe. Each village and town, and in some case neighborhoods, views itself as superior to the savages outside it’s borders.

I'm so happy the true expert is weighing in.

[DavidB.]

I've asked this before, but give that PvdD now is getting relatively substantial seats is it starting the process of becoming a governing party, even if merely as external support?

Not yet, but you are right: things will get more interesting now that they continue to grow to almost 10% in some cities. I wouldn't completely rule out future constructions with PvdD providing external support to a left-wing administration. Among "true left-wingers" (but not within PvdD afaik) there was some excited talk about a PvdA-GL-PvdD-BIJ1-SP government in Amsterdam to exclude D66. This doesn't seem to be a serious option, as - aside from the PvdD - BIJ1 don't want to govern in general and the SP in general do, but want to sit this one out. But if PvdD were to support any type of coalition from the outside, I feel as if it would be a constellation like this. Can't see actual coalition participation including aldermen etc. though - at least not in the near future. But who knows...

[DavidB.]

I could be wrong, but isn't the student population in Maastricht a lot more international? I'd assume not many international students vote in local elections

This is correct. Maastricht's university is the most international of the Netherlands (58% of students and more than 40% of staff were non-Dutch in 2018) and even though the vast majority of them are from the EU (which means they can vote in local elections), this leads to lower turnout and a different political picture than in most other uni towns. Still, GL and D66 got more than 20% together, which is more than CDA and PvdA - unthinkable even 10 years ago.

Southern Limburg also suffers from young people migrating to other parts of the Netherlands: it is one of the regions with the oldest population. And in general, politics in Limburg is just different than elsewhere, with local personalities and issues dominating.

Maastricht is always one of the most fragmented cities in terms of election results, together with Gouda, Leeuwarden and Dordrecht (and in national elections also Rotterdam, but Leefbaar dominate there locally).

[DavidB.]

In Rotterdam, Leefbaar, VVD, D66 and Denk seem to move forward to having coalition negotiations. According to the Algemeen Dagblad, Leefbaar, VVD and Denk would already be willing to start with the talks. Only D66 remain on the fence. Cooperating with Leefbaar would be a bitter pill to swallow and their differences with all three parties on environmental issues are big (just like Leefbaar and - less so - VVD, Denk is very pro-car too, and the previous coalition had a rather strong anti-car policy), but on the other hand, a coalition including Leefbaar and Denk is not just “text book” woke diversity, but actually represents Rotterdam’s diversity, including “marginalized” groups from all backgrounds. D66 will have a difficult time rejecting cooperation with Leefbaar for “woke” reasons as long as Denk is still part of the negotiations.

[DavidB.]

In Rotterdam, Leefbaar, VVD, D66 and Denk seem to move forward to having coalition negotiations.

This is now happening. Talks have started.

[DavidB.]

Today, the most interesting debate since the installation of the new government took place. The subject: mask gate. At the beginning of the Covid pandemic, "opinion maker" Sywert van Lienden, who had very often been a guest in talkshows and had a big following on Twitter (and had been the leader of the leading interest group for school children when he was in school himself), announced he would import massive numbers of masks without making any money. Multiple high profile companies jumped on the bandwagon and provided staff for his initiative. A year later, it turned out he and his two compagnons had made tens of millions, while having people work for them for free. Oh, and the masks have been unused, as they were faulty. This is going to have legal repercussions, but the question also arose how this could have happened. Van Lienden, at the time a CDA member, had been pushing former Health Minister Hugo de Jonge (coincidentally also CDA...) to have the Health Ministry do business with him. Except De Jonge lied about this for a long time, until he was caught when he had to publicize certain information on grounds of transparency laws. Part of the story will likely always remain hidden because he also frequently used a private iCloud email address instead of his work email - against all guidelines for ministers. But De Jonge had messaged others that he rather had "Sywert pissing from inside out than from outside in" and right before the debate selected some information that he wanted to publicize (as if Article 68 of the Constitution doesn't rule that parliament has a right to all information). The gist is clear: Van Lienden made millions by selling faulty masks because of his political connections within the CDA/government. De Jonge helped him - for PR reasons, in the first place - and then lied about it. The fact that more than 5 billion euros "got lost" (seriously) at the Health Ministry within less than two years doesn't make things better.

Sufficient grounds for parliament to want a debate with De Jonge. Constitutionally interesting, because he is now minister of Public Housing, not Health Minister anymore, but it happened anyway.

The coalition continued to support De Jonge, which means he can stay on, but SP, PvdD, GL, PvdA, Volt, DENK, Omtzigt, BBB, BVNL, PVV, FVD and one JA21 MP (Eppink) just supported a motion of no confidence, with BIJ1 absent (would have voted for the no confidence motion) and only SGP and two JA21 MPs as opposition MPs opposing. The tone of the debate was incredibly negative, which has become the "new normal". As NOS reporter Ron Fresen put it: "Dutch politics is wounded, but there is no doctor in the room." The public has noticed: trust in most institutions has gone up over the last year, but the notable exception is the parliament and it's not difficult to understand why.

It obviously makes ideological sense for a party like Denk to be brought into that sort of coalition, but have their been any agitation from activists from either the party or VVD/Leefbaar against the two working together? Like, I could not imagine Denk forming a coalition on a national level for obvious reasons, but even at a local level there could be a lot of discomfort (I recall a mooted SP-PvdA-Gl association with Nida went down in flames, for example)

DENK have moderated substantially over the last, say, three years - they dumped their strategy to be essentially a "Turkish PVV", looking for polarization all the time, and instead embraced a more "positive" approach of doing politics. Much of this change can be attributed to Farid Azarkan taking over the leadership of the party.

I'm not enough of an insider in the world of Rotterdam politics, but as far as I know Leefbaar are already happy not to be excluded this time and the VVD are already happy that they don't have to govern with a ton of left-wing/progressive parties like last time. I think everyone realizes that the new Rotterdam coalition was always going to be a case of parties trying to find the least bad workable option - and ideally a bit of a reflection of the election result too.

Btw, as for the PvdD: turns out you were right. In Arnhem, coalition formation talks with D66, GroenLinks, PvdA, PvdD and local party Arnhem Centraal are now taking place. Will be very interesting to see what happens.

[DavidB.]

PvdA leader Lilianne Ploumen just resigned as party leader and as MP. She says she had answered the call to become leader right before the 2017 election after Asscher had resigned because she couldn't say no, but that she has discovered she does not have what it takes to lead the party. She published quite a self-critical statement, in which she says she wasn't good enough in debates and she wasn't able to develop new ideas on issues that weren't as close to her personally.

All true, but there is another real reason: she had been under pressure for quite some time - also by an increasingly large number of the PvdA parliamentary group - over her enthusiasm to deepen cooperation with GL to the point where a merger would be on the table. Ploumen supported this, but many high-profile PvdA members - such as former chairman Hans Spekman, a rather iconic socialist - are worried working-class and lower educated voters will be alienated even further by intensifying cooperation with a GL, a party with a very "bobo" image and electorate. The parliamentary group is split, with a more "internationalist", climate oriented faction consisting of MPs Thijssen, Piri, Kathmann and De Hoop (all elected in 2021 for the first time) and a faction that emphasizes the importance of maintaining the party's social democratic identity, with MPs Arib, Nijboer and Kuiken, who had all been in parliament before 2021 already.

I could see Arib or Nijboer become the new party leader. As for potential candidates not in parliament: every time people talk about big shots Aboutaleb or Timmermans, but no reason for them to give up their perfectly comfortable jobs. An Asscher comeback would probably be too soon. PvdA Amsterdam leader Marjolein Moorman seems overhyped to me, though she might have a shot in a couple years if the PvdA elect an interim leader first (but what happens with the party in the meantime? Important decisions on the party’s future need to be made.)

[DavidB.]

Volkskrant: Last chance approaching for the PvdA. Tough but realistic analysis of the (lack of) chances the PvdA still has to climb out of the electoral swamp and stand out on the Dutch political left. Google Translate should do the job.

[DavidB.]

New I&O poll. Conducted between Apr 8-11. Seats compared to last poll on Feb 14 (so before local elections); compared to parliamentary election 2021.

VVD 29 (+2; -5).
D66 18 (-1; -6)
JA21 13 (+1; +7)
PVV 13 (-4; -4)
GroenLinks 13 (+2; +5)
PvdA 11 (+1; +2)
BBB 8 (nc; +7)
PvdD 8 (0; +2)
CDA 7 (+1; -8)
SP 7 (nc; -1)
ChristenUnie 6 (nc; +1)
FVD 4 (nc; -4)
Volt 4 (-5; +1)
SGP 4 (nc; +1)
DENK 3 (+1; nc)
50Plus 2 (+1; +1)
BVNL 2 (+1; +2)
BIJ1 1 (nc; nc)

Hope I didn't miss one - I've reached the point where even I cannot keep up anymore. It's insane.

Coalition VVD-D66-CDA-CU 60 (+2; -18)

Big winners compared to GE2021: JA21 +7, BBB +7, GL +5
Big losers compared to GE2021: CDA -8, D66 -6, VVD -5, PVV -4, FVD -4

I&O also made a profile of why parties are winning and losing (without any statistics involved here):
- VVD are losing to JA21 and D66; VVD->JA21 voters think the VVD is too left-wing, VVD->D66 voters think the VVD is not sufficiently progressive and Rutte cannot be trusted.
- CDA are mostly losing to BBB and ChristenUnie, but also to "other party" (people who expect Omtzigt to start a party). De Jonge's mask affair and the Omtzigt affair still make the CDA untrustworthy to many.
- PVV are losing to BBB and JA21. PVV->BBB voters think BBB is more moderate on immigration and Islam, while PVV->JA21 voters think the latter party will have a real shot at exercising influence over policy.
- FVD are losing mainly to BBB and BVNL because people don't like Baudet's "behavior" (sic).
- JA21 are winning voters from across the right-wing spectrum: PVV, FVD, CDA and VVD are mentioned. The combination of right-wing views and moderate, constructive tone is appreciated.
- BBB are winning voters from the same parties and are considered "down to earth" and "no nonsense".
- GroenLinks are winning voters again; from Volt, which collapsed compared to the previous poll due to the Gundogan issue, but also from D66 (voters who are disillusioned with a perceived lack of progressive outlook in D66) and PvdD.

Government approval:

Disapprove 62% (+3)
Approve 32% (-1)
Don't know 6% (-2)

Trust in institutions:

EU 40%, government ("overheid", not "regering", as in: the general administrative institution running the country, not the current ruling parties/ministers deciding things) 37%, Members of Parliament 32%, Ministers 28%.

Trust in institutions has collapsed over the last year (compared to March 2021), when these figures were: government 53% (now -16%), Members of Parliament 49% (now -17%), Ministers 49% (now -21%) and EU 43 (now -3%).

[DavidB.]

According to unnamed "sources" (to be taken with some salt), Frans Timmermans would be interested in taking over the leadership of the PvdA after his term in the European Commission, which ends in the summer of 2024. Theoretically the next general election would take place in March 2025: ideal timing. But that "theoretically" part is the key here - the government is very much divided on a lot of issues and may well collapse before Timmermans' term has ended. In fact, the very possibility that Timmermans could take over the PvdA - combined with the fact that he was very successful in the EP election in 2019, in which the PvdA became the largest party - may in itself frighten D66 to the point where a "controlled collapse" of the government somewhere by the end of 2023 would be preferable to losing half of their seats to the PvdA. On the other hand, a Rutte-Timmermans two horse race could potentially be a perfect scenario for the VVD - this would essentially mean a 2012 redux.

This morning, Timmernans and PvdA Amsterdam leader Marjolein Moorman wrote an op-ed in de Volkskrant. They call for "further cooperation and even connection" with GroenLinks. The op-ed is titled "Fellow party members, don't remain stuck in nostalgia. We need a breakthrough on the left."

GL MP Laura Bromet agrees:
https://twitter.com/LauraBromet/status/1514857599379910657?s=20&t=jQC6hqGHfa...

[DavidB.]

According to NRC sources, Moorman and Timmermans wrote the op-ed partly because either Arib, Nijboer or Kuiken is very likely to become interim leader in parliament. the two authors want to prevent the party from getting too much of an "SP blush on its cheeks" (sic).

In GL, not everyone is happy with the idea either. Former Nijmegen council member Huub Bellemakers already tweeted that he disapproves of the statements by GL members (also including Klaver) welcoming Timmermans and Moorman's statement, saying this alludes to "disbanding the party on Twitter" without involvement of the membership.

https://twitter.com/HuubBellemakers/status/1514860435698331654?s=20&t=QdZ-Q4...

Bellemakers: "I want radical green pro-European politics. No wimpy-green faded-red "but we should also be able to drive our cars a little" adjustment" [of existing policy perceived as right-wing].

https://twitter.com/HuubBellemakers/status/1514870630256160769?s=20&t=QdZ-Q4...

And former GL youth organization DWARS chairwoman Sabine Scharwachter wrote an article against the idea. She thinks the parties should cooperate closely, but diverge ideologically to attract as many voters as possible - the PvdA as "good cop" within the system, GL as "bad cop".

In short, both parties have a segment within the party that opposes a merger. We'll see what happens...

[DavidB.]

Embarrassing for D66: its big #MeToo case has flared up again. In December 2020, an anonymous woman wrote an open letter ("When power is sex") about abuses of power by Frans van Drimmelen, former head of the "talent scouting commission" and a very important person within D66. Van Drimmelen is a professional lobbyist who, behind the scenes, launched several high-placed members' career (he even helped introducing Sigrid Kaag within D66) and helped selecting candidates for elected office:

It is commonly known that a number of Members of Parliament, former party leaders and important strategists behind these leaders have often bothered interns and young women with ambition within the party. I have had this experience with one strategist behind a party leader: Frans van Drimmelen. An important lobbyist with a firm that has a big reputation in The Hague and Brussels. But also has a big role within D66. Behind the scenes, he decides which (female) candidates have a shot at positions like party chairwoman, Member of Parliament and Member of the European Parliament. The current #3 of the candidate list, Hanneke van der Werf, party chairwoman Anne Marie Spierings and the former #5 of the EP list Emily van de Vijver have all been pushed forward and supported by Frans van Drimmelen. With one of these ladies, Mr. Van Drimmelen even had a relationship.

The author explains how Van Drimmelen is an important advisor to Sigrid Kaag, that Sigrid Kaag has to know about all of this and that the fact that Kaag selects such men to advise her makes her feel hopeless.

Van Drimmelen selecting candidates for public office is already questionable in terms of integrity when he is a lobbyist, but apparently he also misbehaved badly towards women. The anonymous author of the letter could say goodbye to her career within D66 when she declined his attempts to take the professional relationship a step further. And she mentions another case in which Van Drimmelen had stalked and intimidated the former chairwoman of the national party office. The national board would have known all of this.

All of this was leaked within four months before the general election, and at the time, Sigrid Kaag was quick to bury the story. Bing, an independent "integrity consulting office", was going to investigate the issue. On February 24th 2021, Bing concluded in the public version of the report that there had been no "structurally unsafe environment" - note the word "structurally". The election news quickly overshadowed the issue and D66 won 24 seats. Van Drimmelen returned to his position at his public affairs firm.

But on election day 7:37 PM, a bit more than an hour before the polls closed, one of Van Drimmelen's main victims was sent a confidential annex to the Bing report, in which it was concluded that there had indeed been behavior that crossed all boundaries. Indeed, there had been a conversation between the police and Van Drimmelen in which he was reprimanded and told not to harass women anymore. The police does not confirm the existence of this particular conversation, but does confirm that such conversations only take place when something is truly going wrong.

The victim is upset that D66 has not publicly confirmed that her account of the story is correct - the lasting public impression was that her complaint had been found unfounded in the Bing report. And so she went to De Volkskrant, which wrote it all down. More than 300 active D66 members, including elected officials (but no MPs), want D66 to take action. D66 now promised to respond to the results on Friday. The question remains: if the national board knew all of this, what did Sigrid Kaag know? And what did she do when she heard about this? Is this the progressive, feminist "new leadership" (her winning campaign phrase, likely to return as a boomerang every time something goes wrong) she promised? To be continued...

[DavidB.]

Henk Nijboer will be a candidate in the PvdA parliamentary group leadership election which should take place on Friday - remains to be seen whether he wants to take a shot at the party leadership too. Nijboer has said that the current level of cooperation with GL "tastes like more". Apparently, Attje Kuiken is also considering taking a shot at the group leadership. Several unnamed "party prominents" would prefer her over Nijboer, according to the Telegraaf (Kuiken would be a really bad choice, Nijboer a solid one imo...). Khadija Arib and Kati Piri are reportedly not interested.

Always very amusing as a Pole to be reminded that actually, Timmermans has politics of his own and isn't just the Emissary from Planet Brussels.

He himself seems to switch between these two modes as well...

[DavidB.]

Nijboer has said that the current level of cooperation with GL "tastes like more".

Is this a Dutch expression that doesn't translate well? I'm not really sure what it means.

Yeah it's my Dunglish translation. It means that something feels so good that you want more of it - meaning he wants to deepen cooperation with GL.

[DavidB.]

Ah, thank you. Did he offer any details? You made it sound earlier like he was relatively more hesitant about ever-closer union with GL.

Before this comment it was reported that Nijboer was among those more skeptical of an "ever closer union" with GL. However, this comment could still mean anything, because he didn't elaborate and didn't use the word merger.

Attje Kuiken presented herself as a candidate too, so the PvdA parliamentary group will have an actual choice. No idea what the difference between these candidates would be policy-wise. With someone like Kathmann or Piri declaring herself candidate it would be easier to tell.

One of Kuiken's more remarkable parliamentary contributions was when she used a "black" accent while pronouncing the word "waarom" ("why") in an anti-racism debate - see 0:34 in this video. She probably hadn't been thinking about it (and perhaps realized it was a mistake the moment she said it), but the result was massively cringeworthy and Zouhair El Yassini (VVD) criticized her for it rather relentlessly, and she apologized while claiming she had never intended to do this.

[DavidB.]

Indeed. An NRC article confirms that Kuiken and Nijboer don't really differ in terms of poiicy, but that Kuiken's win is viewed as a win for Timmermans and Moorman. Kuiken already said that she does not consider herself an "interim leader" even though she understands there are other contenders for the leadership. She says combatting inequality is her "priority one, two and three" and that any further cooperation with GL has to be discussed within the parliamentary group and with the PvdA members first.

Another consequence of Kuiken's election is that those who filed a complaint against Gijs van Dijk, who resigned as PvdA MP over #MeToo allegations earlier this year, now refuse to cooperate with the investigation into Van Dijk's alleged misconduct. This is because they have the impression that Kuiken and Van Dijk are close to each other and, rumor has it, even had a romantic relationship. This is politically relevant because of Ploumen's resignation not just as party leader but also as an MP, which means Van Dijk can actually take up the vacant seat (instead of Mohammed Mohandis, who was already invited to cast his vote for the parliamentary group leadership following Ploumen's resignation).

[DavidB.]

Some quick updates:

- Members of PvdA (76%) and GL (80%) voted in a referendum for a joint list for the Senate next year (but not for the Provincial elections).
- A majority of VVD members voted to oppose their own minister's plans to decrease nitrogens emissions. The party is falling in the polls over a new Rutte scandal wrt transparency and (more importantly) the rising costs of living; now, for the first time in 12 years, members start rebelling too. Looking to be a hot summer with a lot of new farmers' protests - angry farmers already showed up at Minister Van der Wal's house last week.
- D66 also fell to some 13 seats in the polls over Kaag's poor handling of the MeToo scandals within her party.
- For Crabcake: PvdD has become part of two coalitions, in Groningen (with GL, PvdA and CU) and Arnhem (GL, D66, Arnhem Centraal, PvdD, PvdA, Volt).

[DavidB.]

New I&O poll with VVD -4 and BBB +4. Latter are in pole position to pull a Forum 2019 at the PS election.

[snip]
27% are satisfied with the performance of the government (-4), 68% dissatisfied (+4).
According to I&O, the main reasons for dissatisfaction are the new nitrogens regulations, inaction against rising prices/costs of living, and a general lack of action. Right-wing voters often mention the role of D66 in government policy.

[DavidB.]

Today, Mark Rutte has become the longest incumbent Dutch Prime Minister in history. Now 4311 days in office, Rutte has taken the record from Ruud Lubbers (CDA), who was in office from 1982 until 1994.

[DavidB.]

Provincial elections take place in all 12 Dutch provinces next week. These are not just important because they decide the course of the provinces over the next 4 years, but also because the newly elected Provincial States will elect a new Senate in May. The new Senate will mirror the Provincial States very closely and may, depending on the result, make life for the Rutte-IV government (VVD-D66-CDA-ChristenUnie) more difficult.

1. What is the current configuration of the Senate?

The Senate has 75 seats; therefore, 38 seats are needed for a majority. In 2019, the Rutte-III government - which consisted of the same parties as the current government - lost its majority (32 seats, compared to 38 in 2015).  

After the Senate election in 2019, the configuration was as follows: Forum for Democracy 12, VVD 12, CDA 9, GroenLinks 8, D66 7, PvdA 6, PVV 5, SP 4, ChristenUnie 4, PvdD 3, 50Plus 2, SGP 2, Independent Senate Group 1.

The current configuration, however, looks different, as Forum for Democracy has disintegrated and its seats are scattered across four different political groups, the biggest of which is JA21 with 7 seats (Forum still has 1).

The government could strike deals with either of PvdA, GL or JA21 to reach 38 - one of them would suffice. In practice, they mostly struck deals with PvdA and/or GL - in 45 out of 60 cases, to be precise. Agreements with the left were mostly struck on issues regarding the environment, climate, and nitrogen emissions (more on that later). Agreements with the right were struck on issues related to combating terror and crime.

2. What is the current state of play?

- The government had a disastrous election in 2019, but will almost certainly do even worse this time. This is mostly because the CDA are projected to incur a catastrophic loss as no one in the country really knows what they stand for anymore + they essentially forced very popular MP Pieter Omtzigt out of the party + agricultural policies pursued by the government are seen as "anti-rural" and are particularly opposed by core CDA voters. However, D66 would also take a beating compared to the 2021 parliamentary election (but not compared to the 2019 Senate election). The only government party holding up well in all polls is Rutte's VVD.

- PvdA and GroenLinks are set to merge in the Senate and form one big parliamentary group. They explicitly campaign on this. They try to make the race into a 2012 redux, i.e. a clear right vs. left election, in which they end up as the biggest party. However, as happened in 2012, the likeliest outcome is that the left end up cooperating with the right. And a GL-PvdA group that is the biggest force in the Senate wouldn't be that spectacular: currently, if taken together, they are already the biggest. The question that remains: will the merger be more than the sum of its parts? Right now, this doesn't seem to be the case.

- In 2019, Forum for Democracy were the shock winner of the election. Four years later, the party has crumbled after several media storms and splitoffs. Many former FVD voters don't want to vote for a party that thinks COVID was a conspiracy and Putin is a hero. However, dissatisfaction with the government has only grown - except for the time of the pandemic period -, particularly regarding policy on agricultural and environmental matters. Enter BBB, or in English: the Farmer Citizen Movement. Caroline van der Plas entered parliament in 2021 with only one seat, but her movement is riding high in the polls. Van der Plas is charismatic, doesn't speak like a politician, and is a guest in talk show after talk show. Another new force to the right is Forum splitoff JA21, led by former Rotterdam alderman Joost Eerdmans and Annabel Nanninga, a Senator from Amsterdam, who mostly focus on immigration but aim to be more moderate and constructive than PVV/Forum. Notably, many (more?) other voters have returned to the original. Geert Wilders' PVV may double his seat count in the Senate election from 5 to 9 or 10 - basically back to his old level before there were any other parties to the right of the VVD.

Current projections for the Senate look as follows in the last EenVandaag/Ipsos poll and the Peil.nl prognosis

Government:
VVD: 15 (Ipsos) - 12 (Peil)
CDA: 5 - 5
D66: 6 - 7
ChristenUnie: 2 - 3
Government total: 28 - 27

Left-wing/"progressive" opposition:
GL-PvdA: 13 - 14
SP: 5 - 4
PvdD: 4 - 3
Volt: 1 - 1
Left-wing/"progressive" opposition total: 23 - 22

Right-wing opposition:
BBB: 9 - 10
PVV: 9 - 8
JA21: 3 - 3
Forum: 2 - 3
SGP: 1 - 1
Right-wing opposition total: 24 - 25.

Others: 0 - 1.

BBB are set to become the biggest party in the Northern provinces of Friesland, Groningen and Drenthe and the eastern province of Overijssel, which would be important from a symbolical perspective. Gelderland, Zeeland and Flevoland are supposedly a BBB/VVD tossup. The PVV will be the biggest party in Limburg. VVD are expected to win in Noord-Brabant, Noord-Holland, Zuid-Holland and Utrecht. Notice the center vs. periphery polarization here?

All of this is based on current projections, however; in a 2019 redux scenario in which BBB (like FVD back then) gain more at the expense of other right-wing parties (in this case primarily PVV/JA21), all bets are off.

3. What is the campaign about?

- First and foremost: nitrogen emissions. In 2019, the highest court of the Netherlands ruled that the system of granting permits for activities that emit nitrogens goes against European regulations. This caused a total shutdown of new permits being granted. A new nitrogen law was supposed to solve the problem, but these targets are too ambitious in the eyes of some and suicidal for farmers to others. The goal is to cut nitrogen emissions by 50% in 2035. D66 added fuel to the fire when it claimed to want 50% reduction in cattle, infuriating farmers and causing mass farmers' protests in 2019 and again last year.

Officially, the government line is now that nitrogen reduction targets are set in stone but the way to reach them is not. Left-wing opposition parties want to speed up the process further and reach the 50% target in 2030. This issue is also very relevant for the provinces, as they are responsible for much of the policy regarding spatial planning, climate, and the environment.

- Secondary: inflation/cost of living (I'd call this "secondary +"), housing shortages, the energy transition, and immigration (with asylum requests skyrocketing again).

4. What line do the parties take?

- VVD and GL-PvdA want this to be a right vs. left contest focused on the Senate. The VVD, who have been governing for 13 years, present us with the most populist takes about lower taxes and more security, as if they are not in government. GL-PvdA try to paint the VVD as the big villain, as if they haven't cooperated for years. The VVD hope to gain right-wing BBB/JA21 voters who are scared of the idea of GL-PvdA becoming the biggest party. GL-PvdA hope the prospect of a left-wing alliance as biggest party is attractive to D66 voters.

- By contrast, D66 wants this to be about the government vs. the conservative opposition in the Provincial States. Their slogan ("Stop standstill, vote forward") sounds as linguistically awkward in Dutch as it does in English, but it's quite clear.

- BBB and JA21 also want the campaign to be about the government vs. the conservative opposition both nationally and provincially. The idea: a good result for them forces Rutte to cooperate with the right in the Senate + VVD and CDA to cooperate with the right provincially. BBB are set to win over a large number of CDA+VVD voters, particularly in the North and the East.

5. Tl;dr?

- Provincial election will decide composition of Senate + determines important nitrogen policies with a big impact on the agricultural sector.

- The government already lacks a majority but is set to lose more seats. The question is whether they will have a majority together with GL+PvdA. Currently this looks like the most likely scenario and in the end they will strike deals, but it will make life harder for the government.

- Dutch politics now consists of three blocks of equal size: the left, the center-right, and the populist/nationalist right (or, alternatively: the left, the center and the right). The number of seats to the right of the VVD keeps growing, even if Forum has collapsed. Few voters shift between blocs; the most important cross-bloc shifts are GL/PvdA <--> D66 and VVD/CDA <--> BBB/JA21.

- After failed experiments in Noord-Brabant (VVD-FVD-CDA) and Limburg (in practice: CDA-FVD-PVV-VVD), FVD are uncoalitionable on the provincial level. BBB and JA21 should be considered coalitionable, but D66 excludes them; however, in rural provinces where VVD-CDA-BBB-JA21 have a majority, things might get very interesting. The PVV is somewhere in between - in Limburg, VVD and CDA have indicated interest in a coalition.

- I expect the D66 vs. BBB narrative to be more successful than the VVD vs. GL/PvdA narrative.

- The nitrogen issue has all the ingredients to be something over which the government could later collapse, particularly if deals with GL/PvdA get too difficult and pressure on CDA/VVD (the former moreso than the latter) from BBB/JA21 (the former moreso than the latter) keeps growing.

[DavidB.]

Some campaign videos:

VVD: "They will vote. Will you do so too?"
https://twitter.com/VVD/status/1634078631726321664

GroenLinks: "This election is unimportant. Let our generation do the voting. You can keep scrolling on Tiktok."
https://twitter.com/groenlinks/status/1634100594091728896

BBB: "We want there to be buses again. We want people to have doctors in their neighborhood. Good train connections, police officers back in the neighborhoods and the villages. Small local schools that can stay open."
https://twitter.com/BoerBurgerB/status/1633819364716601345

D66: "Stop standstill. Vote forward."
https://twitter.com/D66/status/1626960134504165376

[DavidB.]

A shock I&O poll - a firm without a right-wing bias by any means - shows BBB gaining momentum and the government not reaching a majority even together with GL/PvdA.

BBB would currently have 13 seats in the Senate, compared to 14 for GL/PvdA. However, BBB has more room to grow. FVD were polling on about 9 at this time in the campaign in 2019, while they eventually got 12.

The coalition is at only 20 seats, and 34 together with GL/PvdA. There are ways out if you also take Volt's 2 seats and the ever-constructive SGP's two seats, or even the SP's four seats, but let's be fair - a result like this could blow up the government.



Compared to the parliamentary election in 2021, BBB gain 22% of all PVV voters, 20% of CDA voters, 20% of JA21 voters, 17% of FVD voters, 17% of SP voters and 10% of VVD voters.

The poll per province looks as follows:



The political map in the North and East shifts dramatically. The North used to be the hotbed of socialism and gave below-average scores to populist parties in the 2000s and early 2010s. This shifted in the last years, however, when Rutte-II hollowed out more facilities in the countryside, when the asylum crisis mostly took a toll on the North (biggest intake per head of the population + biggest reception center located there), and particularly when environmental/climate/nitrogen issues started affecting farmers. Now, in Drenthe, BBB, PVV, FVD and JA21 are polling at 45% - yes, that is without VVD and CDA. BBB wouldn't do this, but it places them in a perfect position to demand the ultimate price of VVD and CDA. This poll also shows BBB is making inroads in the West.

In Limburg, PVV-VVD-CDA-JA21 have a majority (without FVD).

These are the polling results for most urban vs. most rural areas:


Polling results per region in the country (3 biggest cities, i.e. Amsterdam, Rotterdam, The Hague; rest West; North; East; South):


Polling result per education level (lower; middle; higher):

[DavidB.]

Is BBB likely to be flash in the pan? Are they merely single issue on this nitrogen thing? What coalitions could they form?

1. Difficult to say. The bigger they get, the more difficult it will get to keep the party united when hard decisions have to be made. In a province like Drenthe, I&O polls them at 15 (!) seats. It isn't hard to see how this could cause trouble. However, the ingredients are there to make them a lasting force too. Increasing distrust in "The Hague", a growing sentiment that rural areas are structurally put at a disadvantage, and a political establishment that increasingly looks alike. Van der Plas also seems to do a good job at keeping more extreme people out. And almost none of their candidates have a past in right-wing populist parties (a category which I don't think BBB is in), which have been very prone to infighting.

I guess the gist of the answer would be that the party is likely to land in trouble, but that the ingredients are also there to make them a structural force.

2. Nitrogen is their biggest issue, but I wouldn't call them a one-issue party, and they object to being called a "farmers party" only. They also care about issues like decentralization and more facilities in the countryside - I think they are most comparable to the Norwegian Center Party.

3. Their natural partner would be JA21, with whom they wrote proposals on tackling the nitrogen issue together. Another obvious partner is the SGP.

But then it gets more difficult. I believe they could cooperate with VVD and CDA, at least in more "rebellious" and more rural provinces, although this is likely to cause serious rifts between the national and the provincial VVD/CDA leadership and could cause the government to collapse. But I don't think it should be impossible, as BBB don't actually reject the premises of the government's nitrogen policy - they just want different terms.

I don't think BBB would reject cooperation with the PVV, but in most provinces (except Limburg) VVD and CDA do.

Other very difficult, but perhaps not 100% impossible options are ChristenUnie and PvdA, at least in the North/East. Quite far apart on nitrogen, but in all other regards there is quite some overlap and "cultural" proximity. Polar opposites D66, GL, and PvdD seem off-limits.

[DavidB.]

What are their alternative proposals to deal with the nitrogen issue?

- Keeping 2035 as target year for having 50% of Natura 2000 areas below "critical nitrogen deposition value" (instead of lowering the target year to 2030)
- No forced buyouts of farmers, only voluntarily
- Focus on improvement of nature instead of nitrogen targets as goal in and of itself
- Replacing nitrogen estimation models (which have been proven inaccurate in many cases) with actual measurements

See also this article in Binnenlands Bestuur: "With BBB in the provinces, there won't be a revolution"

Still, this means many farmers will be forced to quit, one way or another. Sooner or later, BBB risk becoming the target of protests themselves if they enter provincial governments carrying out this policy.