Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[DavidB.]

I... am happy with something Rutte does?

https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1516393082148773892?s=20

[DavidB.]

Heart-breaking article focusing on children who had to flee Ukraine - together with their favorite toys - and their stories. Thought I'd share - Google Translate should work well.

[DavidB.]

Yes, but the point is its still not a blanket rejection of everything "Russian".

Tbf supporting a ban on Tolstoy & co. is just plain russophobia, full stop.

The Jews went through a lot worse, but I don't really remember them being up in arms about blanket banning/removing "German literature".

No blanket ban, but playing Wagner in Israel is still controversial, and that's 80 years afterwards.

I would have expected these figures to be much more "anti-Russian" - and I would completely understand that. I don't like the witchhunt against everything and everyone loosely associated to Russia in the West (of course it's a very different matter for those who actually support the war - absolutely, ban them), but I fully understand why Ukrainians want to ban all that from their lives right now.

[DavidB.]

So jaichind has gone from spamming the board articles that give a inaccurate view of the Russian economy to give the impression that the sanctions aren’t hurting them to just flat out repeating their talking points about Ukraine being Nazis. Cool stuff

That's not what he's saying. What he's saying is that it's weird to see LGBT flags connected to the Ukraine issue, particularly when thinking about the ideology of the Azov Batallion, and that many people outside the West will find the connection of LGBT and pro-Ukraine to be so off-putting that it will make them more inclined to take Russia's side.

[DavidB.]

Had missed this. Always that sanctimonious face as well. He looks like a harmless fool, but he was the leader of the Labour Party in the last general election. Just take a second to imagine the disaster if this man were the Prime Minister of the UK right now.

https://twitter.com/brianklaas/status/1554360196935335936

[DavidB.]

Billion-dollar aid package with most of it devoted merely to replenishing ammo stocks for existing weapons is a testament to how materiel-hungry war is, especially given that they just had a 550 million aid package a week ago or so and basically all of it was just artillery and HIMARS ammunition.

https://twitter.com/OstapYarysh/status/1556684181270298624

Very sad that this is needed but very good that the Biden admin is doing it. Credit where it's due.

[DavidB.]

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1557621932429819907

[DavidB.]

Old Europe's broad map makes the previous page of this thread almost unreadable... maybe just put the link there?

Anyway, this is getting more depressing by the day. Ukraine advancing is obviously extremely positive, but I don't really see a good way out anymore now that Russia has formally annexed these four regions. It seems like a fiction they would ever stop fighting for land they now officially consider to be just as much part of Russia as Moscow. I actually think it is now more likely than not that nukes will be used in this war, particularly if Ukraine keep advancing and Russia cannot win conventionally. I generally don't like Godwins, but Putin seems to be going full Hitler: Russia's very existence would be on the line and if Russia doesn't win, they don't get to live on anyway. An extremely dangerous fantasy that could plunge Europe and the world into a nuclear winter. A unified Western response is more necessary than ever, and within the Western bloc Europe should be more united and more autonomous from the U.S. at the same time.

[DavidB.]

Well well well...
https://twitter.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1592583028362342403

[DavidB.]

The Kremlin coping and spinning has started. Really interesting how they spread this "Nazi" narrative about Poland too.

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1592603091274149888

[DavidB.]

There needs to be some weighting of the EU vote by economic size, and to get rid of unanimous consent. It is one thing for something to go down if Germany or France opposes it, another for Poland to do so, and ludicrous when you have a place as far down the economic food chain as Hungary nixing something. Next thing you know it will be Andorra.

This "food chain" line of thinking is exactly why smaller countries wouldn't want to abolish the veto. It's essentially the same argument as for abolishing the U.S. Senate or redistributing its seats according to population. The EU isn't just supposed to represent 450 million people; the 27 Member States represent the peoples of these states and the European Council - although often overlooked publicly - is the most powerful institution for a reason (although the Commission has quite boldly taken the lead when it comes to Ukraine and, I have to say, hasn't done it in a bad way).

Regardless of all of this, Germany has been the primary nuisance in forming a unified block to support Ukraine. But they are powerful enough to block things before they are on the table and thereby avoid Hungary's optics issue.

[DavidB.]

Oh, I fully understand that the smaller fry would not like it. However, Malta vetoing something would be akin to the Senator from Wyoming vetoing something. If one had a system where either a two thirds vote of the member states weighted by GDP or two thirds of the member states, with each state having one vote, could veto something, or pass something, that would make more sense.

Most issues (about 80%) are already decided by QMV (qualified majority voting): 55% of the member states representing 65% of the population, and at least four countries have to vote no to block something. Only some extremely sensitive areas - mostly regarding foreign policy, defense, EU enlargement, taxation and finances - require unanimity. Giving up a veto on that would essentially be akin to ceding to be sovereign countries.

[DavidB.]

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-ukraine-summit-trip-dress-code-brussels-military-volodymyr-zelenskyy-russian-invasion-solidarity-kyiv/

"The EU’s Ukraine trip dress code: Wear a suit, not green like Zelenskyy"

It seems for the EU-Ukraine Summit the EU had a dress code where no one from the EU side is allowed to dress like Zelensky to ensure that no attention is taken away from Zelensky.

What's the problem here? Zelensky is the leader of a country at war, Scholz and Macron are not.

I just find it funny that the EU would
a) Focus so much on optics
b) Think the way Zelensky dresses is such a key fact of his image

As for the first part, almost every informal party with nobodies even has a dress code these days. And every organization focuses on basic optics. Plus, if EU people would wear green, vatniks would complain about EuRoPe waGiNG WaR aGaiNSt RuSsIa.

[DavidB.]

The idea that there will be pressure in Poland or the Czech Republic to reduce funding for Ukraine because they are against 'LGBT ideology' is off the scale stupidity.

I was more thinking about the USA.  There is already growing opposition from the GOP base toward more aid to Ukraine not because of any pro-Russian feelings but more of resource allocation prioritization.  Putin cannot do harm by sending the message to the GOP base "hey, I am on your side on the culture wars too" especially when he can do it on the cheap, like giving a speech.

Yup. In Western conservative circles, "Putin never called me transphobic/racist/privileged" remains the strongest argument for Russia. And to non-Western audiences, the descent of U.S. society in a perpetual state of identity war with crazier "progressive" excesses every week also stands in stark contract to Russia's embrace of traditional values, even if one can question the latter in all sorts of ways. I know people here don't like reading it. And I am pro-Ukrainian. But I think this is the objective truth and definitely part of why much of the world hasn't joined the West.

And not all of Central and Eastern Europe are as anti-Russian as the Baltics and Poland. Icc mentions Czechia - which is actually not as anti-Russia as Poland; there have been pro-Russian protests in Prague already. I definitely think the culture war/LGBT argument works in a fair number of Eastern European countries.

[DavidB.]

Putin visiting Mariupol, inspecting the reconstruction:
https://twitter.com/Trollstoy88/status/1637365838314364929

You're now posting stuff by Nazi accounts I see?

[DavidB.]

Last night, Ukrainian president Zelensky flew to the Netherlands with the Dutch government airplane for a trip that had been carefully kept secret until the moment he was on his way. He spoke in a closed-off joint session to both Houses of Parliament this morning and afterwards visited the International Court of Justice. I am not sure what the remainder of his program looks like, but a meeting with Prime Minister Rutte (VVD), Foreign Minister Hoekstra (CDA) and Defense Minister Ollongren (D66) - likely with a shopping list - is most definitely part of it.

Today is also the Dutch National Day of Remembrance, dedicated to WWII victims and Dutch military that died in WWII and other wars to protect freedom. Zelensky's timing has been criticized; the subject is the appropriateness of mixing up National Remembrance Day with the Ukraine war. Proponents say Zelensky is fighting for the freedom we cherish in our own country and so the subjects are intrinsically linked; opponents say this is not the right timing. There was also speculation about Zelensky delivering a speech during the main Remembrance Day ceremony at 8 PM at Dam Square in Amsterdam, which would probably be the most "controversial" in this regard.

BBB leader Caroline van der Plas (whose party is pro-Ukrainian) and PVV leader Geert Wilders decided not to attend the parliamentary session with Zelensky this morning.

[DavidB.]

It looks like we're in a new phase indeed, mostly because of the Polish U-turn and increasing GOP opposition to supporting Ukraine, but also because of general fatigue in the West. So far, Ukraine has not succeeded in making any significant advances this year, and while there are all sorts of outside reasons for that (perhaps most importantly the slow materiel deliveries from the West, which does not live up to its promises) it will cost them dearly. The West has "geopolitical ADHD" and its attention span for Ukraine is running out. In Afghanistan, the Taliban said "the Americans have watches, but we've got the time"; the same goes for Russia. I find this to be very unfortunate because I support Ukraine in taking back control over its entire territory, but it feels like the mood is shifting quite rapidly. I expect the West to force Ukraine to the negotiating table in 2024.

[DavidB.]

Looks like there's been a terrorist attack in Crocus City Hall, Moscow. I'm aware this is not a Russia megathread and there may not necessarily be a link to the war.

Warning: disturbing footage.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1771234508584427987?s=20

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1771235186602086749?s=20

https://twitter.com/narrative_hole/status/1771230014010241215?s=48

[DavidB.]

tweet

This is tangential, but that "What the Media Hides" account has been all over my Twitter feed lately reposting fake news direct from Hamas.  Like literally just fake news.  As if the notion that the media is going to "hide" this terrorist attack isn't fake enough already.  Would recommend not following it if you were.  Of course I wasn't following it either but Musk's algorithm pushes this kind of content constantly in his grand effort to make the world a worse place.

Yes, good that you mention it - I already assumed it was a bad account and am definitely not following it. Just posted this specific tweet because of the videos.