Young people in Europe and the centre-right's existential crisis (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 09, 2024, 04:24:52 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  International General Discussion (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Young people in Europe and the centre-right's existential crisis (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Young people in Europe and the centre-right's existential crisis  (Read 4755 times)
DavidB.
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,639
Israel


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: 4.26


« on: May 19, 2018, 07:22:23 AM »
« edited: May 19, 2018, 07:31:37 AM by DavidB. »

In some countries, like Germany, the share of the vote for the main center-right party declines over time, but the total share of the right clearly doesn't if you add FDP and AfD. (A similar pattern exists on the left, with SocDems performing badly among youth in many countries, such as the Netherlands and Finland, but Greens performing well.)

I also suspect young voters used to be a lot more on the left in the past than nowadays. If this is something that has always existed, perhaps even more so than is now the case, it's not an "existential crisis".

Apart from that, the center-right by definition represents the economic status-quo. It makes sense that people would only start voting for them when they are "settled" with a career, a steady relationship, a house (often with mortgage), etc.

According to the National Voters' Study (very reliable), the youth vote (18-24) was as follows in the Netherlands in 2017. The yellow thing is the percentage of the vote a party received among young voters, but because of the low N for young voters the margin of error is relatively high, reflected by the long bars. The black thing is the percentage these parties received in total.

Important to take into account the turnout gap here: with a national turnout percentage of 82%, turnout among lower educated youth (18-24) was 59%, while turnout among higher educated youth (18-24) was 85% (see here). This means that highly educated, middle-class (and higher) people are much more overrepresented among the 18-24 electorate than among any other age group. If turnout among lower educated young people were higher, the "populist right" share of the vote among young people would surpass the national percentage of 15%.

Any numbers for former Eastern bloc countries? I'd guess the centre right is doing better with young people there. Socialism is considered old man politics there, no?
I remember reading that 80% of young people (not sure about the exact age category) in Hungary had voted Fidesz or Jobbik (70% nationally).
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.02 seconds with 11 queries.