Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[DavidB.]

Following the rather grave mistakes that were made in the process of coming up with the final result of the GE earlier this year, the government plans on revising the Electoral Law and giving the Central Election Commission more time to publicize the final result. The revised Election Law will also force municipalities to publish election results by precinct, because it would currently be too difficult for voters to track whether any mistakes had been made in the counting process. Great news!

[DavidB.]

The Dutch version of The Onion:

Lilian Marijnissen: "I want a Netherlands where your surname isn't decisive for your opportunities in society."

Apparently, Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Sadet Karabulut had also declared herself a candidate, but the parliamentary group decided "in harmony" that Marijnissen would be the best successor...

Not a great decision in my opinion. The problem in the previous campaign -- and during the parliamentary term -- was not Roemer, who actually did a decent job during the debates, but the fact that the party's focus was not broad enough (healthcare, healthcare, healthcare) and, in the view of the public, did not seem to propose any ideas on other issues, even if they do have these ideas. However, this was not Roemer's decision but the real leadership's (Meyer, Janzerdaddy), and under Marijnissen they will doubtlessly continue to do this (whereas Karabulut would have been more of an "intersectional" party leader, not to BIJ1/GL degrees, but she would talk about discrimination etc. as well).

[DavidB.]

The Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management today announced that the Netherlands will join Austria in taking Germany to the European Court of Justice over its contentious motorway toll plans. Under the proposed system, Germans will get a full refund for this toll through the motor vehicle tax whereas foreigners have to pay full price. According to the Dutch Infrastructure Ministry, this amounts to discrimination and "goes against the principles of free movement [within the EU]." In total, Dutch motorists are expected to spend 60 to 100 million on tolls in Germany, 40% of which will be paid by individuals and companies in the border area.

[DavidB.]

The SP's focus on healthcare is the sort of thing that looks great on paper but just didn't work in reality. I'm not saying they should have spoken out more loudly on immigration and identity issues, but a less "ideologically rigid" and therefore narrow focus on bread and butter stuff would have helped, I think. For instance, a left-wing communitarian approach to identity issues (without actually letting go of their left-wing stances on immigration etc., which they are clearly unwilling to do) could have worked greatly and could actually be one of their strengths. Instead, they chose just to ignore the theme altogether. Roemer not appealing to non-working class people would have remained a problem, which is why replacing him is not a bad idea in itself, but they will not broaden their appeal without a different electoral strategy, and I doubt they understand it.

Meanwhile, I saw that Mark Lievisse Adriaanse, NRC Handelsblad reporter and an SP member himself (at least in the past, a quick Google search shows), wrote an article on Lilian Marijnissen that might as well have been published by the SP... Like you, I am not as convinced. Bad optics, as you said.

[DavidB.]

Lmao: in the groupthink world of the SP leadership, the party's problem is that it had become "too elitist, almost like GL". They blame Sharon Gesthuizen, the former MP and rebel who challenged Ron Meyer for the position of chairman and afterwards wrote a book on the culture of fear within the party, because of her plea for a more open/"humane" refugee policy. Roemer also mentioned this more than he probably should have during one of the television debates in the runup to the election.

While I would of course love the SP to take a more restrictive approach on immigration (though it's more likely that they keep their position but stop talking about it), I don't think this was one of their main electoral problems at all (their positions are not even different from those in 2006), and it is frankly delusional and reeks of groupthink to blame it on Gesthuizen -- as if the average voter even knows who she is.

Reporters also found that Lilian Marijnissen knew 1.5 months in advance that Roemer would resign, whereas Karabulut learned this one day in advance. Never change, SP.

[DavidB.]

My understanding of Dutch politics is comparatively poor so I'll try not to clog up this thread too much, but would you be kind enough to explain why the Socialist Party is such a joke?

Formely Maoist cult/sect with charismatic leader (who is paranoid and likes to keep decisionmaking power within his inner circle, because of course) who is "a man of the people" moderates politically and becomes electorally successful, but remains the same old cult/sect internally. To most voters this doesn't matter in itself, but of course the consequences of this structure lead to poor decisionmaking and turn off talented potential candidates and people with good ideas who happen to be too critical.

[DavidB.]

DENK have decided to stand in the Rotterdam local election. This will mainly hurt NIDA, who won two seats in 2014 and are more explicitly Islamist than DENK. NIDA were unwilling to cooperate with DENK because they considered DENK to be too polarizing and not sufficiently constructive. It will be interesting to see how this affects both parties. "Moroccans to NIDA, Turks to DENK" would be my first guess (NIDA is led by a Moroccan Dutch guy), but if a Moroccan Dutch person will be selected as political leader of DENK Rotterdam this dynamic may be different.

The parallel between DENK and the PVV, who will be standing in Rotterdam to the detriment of Leefbaar, who are more constructive, continues to hold up very well.

[DavidB.]

#tbt: Jan and little Lilian Marijnissen in the GE 1989 campaign.

[DavidB.]

The first scandal with a PVV candidate for the municipal election is in. PVV Rotterdam candidate #1 Géza Hegedüs paid his respects to well-known Shoah denier David Irving. In 2014, he wrote on Irving's Facebook page: "Happy birthday and many more healthy and productive years! You really have my respect!" Would be surprised if he isn't sacked right away, but that the PVV hadn't found out about this in advance is truly unbelievable given all the past scandals.

Edit: There is apparently a podcast by Neonazi group Erkenbrand in which Hegedüs, who is of Hungarian descent, voices his support for Jobbik but decries the party's "moderation" and laments that the party does not talk about Jews and Roma anymore. He also called for the deportation of Surinamese Dutch people. Holy sh**t.

Edit 2: Aaaand he's gone. PVV press statement: 'To our deepest regret, we have taken notice of new information about #1 candidate Geza Hegedüs, which was unbeknownst to us. This information is unacceptable and does not suit a PVV politician. The candidate has immediately been removed from the list. Wilders: "I deeply regret this. Had we known about this beforehand, Mr. Hegedüs would never have been accepted as a candidate on the list. The PVV will announce the next #1 candidate next week."' Leefbaar Rotterdam will be delighted.

[DavidB.]

I wonder what FvD would score if they participated in all municipalities while Wilders stays home. FvD's party structure probably makes it easier to find good candidates for local elections.

FvD would also have suffered from tons of scandals like this one. Most people with Nazi sympathies and ideas like the ones Hegedüs espoused despise the PVV for being Zionist (and funded by Jews), but have no problem with FvD. While FvD are pro-Israel too, evidenced by their voting record in parliament as well as Baudet's social media statements, they have also won the support of a lot of people who are not kosher (see Erkenbrand, who adore him), which is unfortunately related to Baudet's alt-right dogwhistling (e.g. the homeopathic dilution comment, the Russia/MH17 stuff, De Haze Winkelman peddling the Coudenhove-Kalergi conspiracy theory, the memes). These people would love to run for their local councils at the FvD slate and could damage the party immensely.

What on earth was the PVV even thinking when they signed up for 60 municipalities?

Don't think they will end up running in 60 municipalities at all. There would have been more news by now if that were the case.

[DavidB.]

I don't think anybody should be impressed by the intellectual capacities of the hbo "students" of Erkenbrand who think they are original for "discovering" Spengler (just like far-right manchild Sid Lukkassen, who can weirdly still remain a VVD local council member somewhere on the border with Germany; wonder if he will be deselected?). Though yes, as almost always, I of course agree with your main point.

[DavidB.]

FvD third largest party and bigger than the PVV (though all within MoE) in today's Peil.nl poll.

[DavidB.]

Would parties like VVD and CDA be open to working with FvD?

Perhaps not impossible, but it would be difficult. Baudet's worldview and policy positions (most notably leaving the EU and introducing Switzerland-style direct democracy) are simply rather far away from those of VVD and CDA. His hyperbolic statements, trolling and dogwhistling do not help either.

Of course, the issues with cooperation with the PVV were somewhat similar in 2010, and both VVD and CDA may come around (never underestimate the "flexibility" of the VVD in particular), and a lot may change in the coming years, but for now it seems difficult to me.

A complication for FvD would be that they are very vulnerable to the criticism of selling out to the "party cartel" -- just like they accuse D66 of doing. The PVV never had this problem.

[DavidB.]

De Correspondent today revealed that last October Thierry Baudet had a meeting with American white nationalist Jared Taylor, fouder of American Renaissance. They met for five hours and left deep in the night. Not great optics.

[DavidB.]

A scandal in the category "holy sh**t": sheltered employment facility Alescon hired disabled people through a temporary employment agency in order not to have to pay their employers as much as they would under the law. Under the construction, employees did not only get paid less, but they also did not have a right to a full wage if they fell ill. Judges have now considered this construction to be illegal, as it is a flagrant violation of the main principle behind sheltered employment facilities: paying disabled employees a fair wage within a position of legal certainty.

And here comes the shocker: until October, William Moorlag was the CEO of Alescon. Now, Moorlag is an MP. For the PvdA.

(...)

A social democrat using illegal constructions to pay his disabled employees a lower wage. Wow. And the PvdA will not punish him for it, saying Moorlag had "good intentions" and accepts the verdict of the court (well, duh). Even though the PvdA have always vocally opposed this type of legal construction. Moorlag's "good intentions" were that "this construction enabled us to hire more people" -- spoken like a true capitalist. Domela Nieuwenhuis just turned in his grave.

[DavidB.]

The PVV today announced the 30 municipalities where they will stand in the local elections. In GE17 they did better than the national average (13.1%) in all of these except for Urk (11%), Arnhem (12%), Utrecht (7.4%), and Stichtse Vecht (12.7%).

[DavidB.]

Pressure on Moorlag to resign is increasing. Following the campaign by the PvdA's youth wing, the executive board of the PvdA now wants Moorlag, who succeeded former Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem in October, to step down as well. De Volkskrant reports that there is a risk that Moorlag may refuse to resign. In that case, the PvdA would be left with only eight seats, one of them occupied by the Speaker. I don't really expect this to happen in his case, but you never know.

[DavidB.]

There have been problems with fireworks all over the country. Even as a right-winger raised in a relatively rural place I must say that I'm tired of it by now, maybe the call for banning or more strictly regulating it will grow now. Yesterday a man died in front of his children because he f**ed up with fireworks, but most of the victims are bystanders.

Also wanted to shamelessly abuse this thread for announcing that this will be my last post of 2017 on atlas, I have to get back to my parents and the oliebollen now .

Happy New Year!

Polls indicate that there has been a silent majority that is highly critical of consumer fireworks for years. According to a TNS NIPO poll (2017), 69% of the Dutch never buy any fireworks. And then look at the victims and the costs. Proponents always say that the problems stem from illegal fireworks, but apparently approximately 20% of legal consumer fireworks are defective. Fireworks, not Zwarte Piet, should be the most controversial Dutch "tradition". I have always supported a ban, but it seems things are finally going to change now, though I expect it to take a few more years and a lot more hands, eyes and lives.

This is an issue I definitely take into account when deciding whom to vote for in the local election.

[DavidB.]

The Islamic party NIDA, currently represented on the Rotterdam local council with three seats, will establish a branch in The Hague and stand in the municipal election in March. This will undoubtedly hurt the two existing Islamic parties on the local council in The Hague, the Islam Democrats and the more radical Unity Party (PvdE). NIDA have managed to fence off scandals in Rotterdam and operate in a professional way, which cannot be said about the crooks of the Islam Democrats and the salafis of the PvdE. It still remains to be seen whether DENK will also stand in The Hague.

[DavidB.]

Wait, how bad is it? I find it mildly annoying on New Year's because I can't go to bed for a little while after midnight due to the noise, but it isn't that bad.

I don't mind the beautiful fireworks on the night itself, but on December 31st the streets just become a warzone, particularly in the cities but also to a smaller extent in suburban and rural areas. I currently live abroad, but last year I could not even ride my bike to the nearest supermarket without being bombarded with firecrackers, which is a scary experience. And I'm a young guy. Elderly people are particularly terrified of the annual sh**tfest, lots of pets escape every year out of anxiety, and it isn't exactly good for the air quality either. For most people, the "tradition" of fireworks is just no fun anymore. It's become an excuse for young guys to make as much noise as possible and scare people.

The timeslot to set off fireworks legally was reduced from 10:00-2:00 to 18:00-2:00 a few years ago, but it is simply impossible for the police to prevent people from doing it anyway. A lot of people from the Netherlands tell me that they changed their minds on a ban on consumer fireworks this year, so I assume that the situation didn't improve this year.

[DavidB.]

I think Gretta "antisemite has almost become a badge of honor" Duisenberg is still the most famous pro-Palestine activist in the Netherlands, but yeah, Meulenbelt should be about as well-known and about as nuts. The pro-Israel cause needs more people like them.

The BIJ1 candidates introduce themselves here and, as mvd10 said, it is truly a goldmine, so check it out. Google Translate should work fine for the descriptions. The best ones: vreer (no capital letter, pronouns them/that, "gender wanderer") and former Lolberlin professor Gloria Wekker, who thinks objectivity in science does not exist and should not exist and who wrote a book called "White Innocence" to blame all Dutch ypipo for colonialism, capitalism and everything bad in the world.

I personally don't know about their fate. You need to be insanely woke to vote for BIJ1, and with GL leading the opposition to the national government from the left this is a much safer option for most lefties in Amsterdam. One seat (or maybe two seats if they have a good day) would be the likeliest option, but zero seats isn't completely impossible either, as turnout in the Bijlmer, where they did best in the GE, isn't the highest in local elections. They got 10,197 votes in the GE in Amsterdam with 78% turnout. With an expected 50% turnout in the local election (but this may be much higher, in line with the GE) and a much larger electorate (all EU citizens can vote) of about 700k, you need at least 7,500 votes or so for 1 seat. Simons should be able to make it in, but I doubt their second candidate will.

[DavidB.]

Of course it was hyperbole, but Wekker's opinion of objectivity in science is something I completely unhyperbolically oppose. In "White Innocence" she literally states that she rejects the "untenable positivist position, with its requirements of neutrality, objectivity and replacability" according to which it should not matter who the person behind the scientist is and that someone's work should be duplicable. I do not have a PhD, but I have a decent scientific background and I find this to be an incredibly dangerous argument to make, potentially undermining any and all scientific findings; this truly plays into the hands of those who question universities and research in general (be prepared for those who think scientific findings on vaccines are "just based on the scientist's personal background"!). Perhaps this makes one a "decently well known anthropologist" in Lolberlin and on various other U.S. campuses, and I am prepared to take anyone's argument seriously regardless of their position, but according to me it makes her an activist more than a scientist.

[DavidB.]

I am not saying there are no legitimate criticisms of positivism, and I am not saying any science that is not based on positivism is inherently bad or problematic. However, I do think that if one is as prominent in activist circles as Wekker is and one combines this activism with one's non-positivist academic work within the field of anthropology, rejecting the traditional position regarding objectivity in science, then one could raise questions about the value of this person's work. I am not an anthropologist and it could well be that her anthropological work is decent, but if her analysis of Dutch society just consists of personal opinions (formulated in academic language) connected to non-positivist theories rooted in black activism and invented by other activist scientists who want to "deconstruct colonialism" or something similar, with the aim of accusing Dutch people of bad things and ultimately transforming Dutch society rather than producing objective knowledge to the benefit of everyone, then I will not exactly be inclined to take the argument as seriously as an article in a medical journal on the effectiveness of vaccines.

Edit as response to your edit: It goes without saying that the demands of Dutch politicians regarding the integration of minority groups have shifted over time and that integration policies have changed accordingly, and that migrant groups are not to blame for this (though neither are ethnic Dutch people). I doubt that this is fuelled by "racial" considerations, but apart from the last sentence I think Wekker is not necessarily wrong here.

[DavidB.]

The new party Ubuntu Connected Front (UCF) will stand in the local elections of both Amsterdam and Rotterdam, focusing on voters with an African and Caribbean background. It should be similar to BIJ1, but less intersectionalist and more exclusively focused on black interests. It has the potential to be a huge spoiler to BIJ1 in Amsterdam and hurt the PvdA in Rotterdam.

The Amsterdam branch will be led by Iwan Leeuwin, an activist and former member of the Amsterdam Southeast district council on behalf of GroenLinks. Leeuwin was basically kicked out of the party by GL Amsterdam leader Rutger Groot Wassink for saying an effigy of Nelson Mandela looked like Black Pete (hilarious story; can't really blame Leeuwin). The effigy was later burned down, which ruined the opening ceremony of the Nelson Mandela Park. Strikingly, Leeuwin is the cousin of BIJ1 leader Sylvana Simons.

[DavidB.]

I was a little surprised about the attention this received. Van Agt pretty much made it clear that he voted for GL already when the election took place. On March 10, he said in De Volkskrant that he would not publicize for whom he would vote, but that he had "great sympathy, yes, admiration even" for GL (really makes you think). Perhaps some people had been sleeping. Van Agt was a vocal opponent of the cooperation with the PVV in 2010 and solely seems to care about opposing Israel these days, so the announcement was not too surprising in the first place.

A more interesting aspect of the interview, in my opinion, was Van Agt's open criticism of the late Queen Juliana. According to Van Agt, Queen Juliana's "process of wear had started. There was little systematics, logic and method in [her thinking on] the subjects that were discussed" by the time that he had become Prime Minister (1977 until her abdication in 1980). This remark, in turn, was criticized by the former Speaker of Parliament Gerdi Verbeet (PvdA), as Queen Juliana cannot defend herself from Van Agt's accusations. Van Agt never had a good relationship with the royal family; Jan-Peter Balkenende and he are the only former Prime Ministers who are currently alive and did not receive the honorary title of Minister of State. Apparently Queen Beatrix and Van Agt did not like each other either: they have very different characters, Van Agt screwed up Queen Beatrix' first formation in 1981, and he had a rocky relationship with his successor Ruud Lubbers, who is liked by the royal family.