German Federal Election - Sept. 24 - Results Thread

[DavidB.]

Even if it does prove to be true that the turnout surge is only urban, cities -- German cities in particular -- are not only inhabited by students and bobos, but also by a whole lot of workers and former workers who may not necessarily vote for the left (anymore).

[DavidB.]

Germany (Sachsen-Anhalt): Turnout 1400 CEST:
2013: 36.2%
2017: 42.5%

Germany (Mecklenburg-Vorpommern): Turnout 1400 CEST:
2013: 37.2%
2017: 37.3%

Germany (Hamburg): Turnout 1400 CEST:
2013: 48.9%
2017: 50.8%

Germany (Thuringia): Turnout 1400 CEST:
2013: 55.6%
2017: 50.9%

Germany (Bremen): Turnout 1400 CEST:
2013: 40.5%
2017: 42.5%

Germany (Hesse): Turnout 1400 CEST:
2013: 40.0%
2017: 45.9%

[DavidB.]

There are rumors going around in Social Democratic circles that the SPD is at 18 - 22% in the post-voting forecasts

Not surprising, there is just no reason to vote SPD this election. It's probably actually better for them to be at a disastrous 19% than to be at 22% and under pressure for a next grand coalition.

[DavidB.]

EuropeElects has a turnout prognosis of 80%, but not clear whose made it and what it is based on.

[DavidB.]

EuropeElects has a turnout prognosis of 80%, but not clear whose made it and what it is based on.

Is that a legitimate thing or is it just someone with Twitter?

Usually very informed. But I don't know if this is reliable or not.

[DavidB.]

Germany (Mecklenburg-Vorpommern): Turnout 1600 CEST:

2013: 51%
2017: 61%

[DavidB.]

Turnout is still relatively low in Niedersachsen.

Germany (Lower Saxony): Turnout 1600 CEST:

2013: 65%
2017: 63.3%

[DavidB.]

I just came home. Is there a map of results by municipality or region? I'm sorry if this was posted already.

[DavidB.]

Thank you, Hades and Oryxslayer! Just had a watchparty with quite some Germans, who weren't too pleased with the results... unlike me. Merkel punished, SPD punished, AfD strengthened even more than expected, FDP back. Just a pity that Die Linke didn't perform a bit better and the Greens a bit worse.

I also find the denunciation of Gauland and his antics quite heartening. The way Göring-Eckardt responded to his BS in the party leaders' debate... that's really the way to go. Meuthen did a good job though.

[DavidB.]

Bloomberg says.  ARD indicates that AfD might come in first in Saxony.   Not sure if they mean Saxon or Saxony-Anhalt

They mean Saxony, but the results skew rural at the moment, because in Saxony we just know about muncipalities that are fully counted.

AfD is ten points behind CDU in Sachsen-Anhalt.

Where do you get this from?

[DavidB.]

Thanks!

[DavidB.]

Jewish Groups Worldwide Alarmed by Far-right AfD Breakthrough in German Election

http://www.haaretz.com/world-news/europe/1.813942

[DavidB.]

Jewish Groups Worldwide Alarmed by Far-right AfD Breakthrough in German Election

http://www.haaretz.com/world-news/europe/1.813942

I have quite a number of Jewish friends who are really upset about the election results.

Well, I, too, am upset about d**khead Gauland being in the position in which he is today, and there is no doubt about the fact that many Nazis have been crawling out of their holes to rejoice today, which is a bad thing. That said, Jewish left-wing groups' hysterical Pavlov always really only makes things worse, and not everyone in AfD is like Gauland (and they would have responded the same way under someone as inoffensive as Lucke anyway).

[DavidB.]

Wow, great, Al!

Does anybody know whether Nazi Bernd was elected?

[DavidB.]

But why does Petry do this? Because her ego was hurt?

[DavidB.]

But why does Petry do this? Because her ego was hurt?

Despite moving AfD more to the right after deposing Lucke she felt AfD was way too right wing this year and said she wanted to make AfD more palpable towards being allowed into coalitions by moderating a little back. But her party disagreed and stuck to its course.  Im guessing she waited until after the election to announce she was sitting as an independent because the leader leaving during the election campaign would of made the party lose support due to inner fighting.

Well, that's obviously what she says, but I'm wondering about the real reason. Petry herself had made AfD much more extreme and thereby completely uncoalitionable already.

[DavidB.]

Here you go:

[DavidB.]

Have you got the swing for Offenbach?

AfD 11.8% this time, 5.8% last time around, swing of 6%. One of the places where they overperformed in 2013 and underperformed this time.

https://www.welt.de/politik/bundestagswahl/article168296686/Ergebnis-und-Wahlsieger-im-Wahlkreis-185.html

[DavidB.]

No.

David's bonus map is the 2013 map, not a 2013/2017 swing map.

Oh, sorry!

[DavidB.]

Turnout at 10 am in Lower Saxony at 8.21% (5.37% in 2013).

I don't think this is the right thread for that.