France : Who has the best chance of beating Marine Le Pen in the second round?

[DavidB.]

Fillon, of course. 2002 all over again; with a much stronger Le Pen and a much weaker "mainstream" right-wing candidate, but still. It is Macron-Le Pen that could absolutely turn into a Hillary-Trump thing, with Le Pen being able to position herself on his left economically against "globalism" and the like.

[DavidB.]

Macron has all the negatives of Fillon and none of the positives. Le Pen will still be able to position herself to the "left" of Macron on economic issues, attracting working-class voters. Yet while Fillon is "tough on crime/Muslims", sufficiently so for right-wingers to vote for him instead of Le Pen, Macron is not like that at all. And it's an illusion to think non-working-class left-wing voters would stay home in a Fillon-Le Pen runoff, handing Le Pen the victory; most of them would ultimately turn out for Fillon anyway, just like they turned out for Chirac in 2002.

[DavidB.]

Macron has all the negatives of Fillon and none of the positives. Le Pen will still be able to position herself to the "left" of Macron on economic issues, attracting working-class voters. Yet while Fillon is "tough on crime/Muslims", sufficiently so for right-wingers to vote for him instead of Le Pen, Macron is not like that at all. And it's an illusion to think non-working-class left-wing voters would stay home in a Fillon-Le Pen runoff, handing Le Pen the victory; most of them would ultimately turn out for Fillon anyway, just like they turned out for Chirac in 2002.

I'm a non-working-class left-wing voter, and if that's the choice I'll get in the runoff, I'm strongly considering casting a blank vote.

Sure, but you are hardly representative for that group of voters. Most people aren't nearly as politically engaged as people like us are. And I said "most of them", not "all of them."

And would you vote for Macron over Le Pen? (Reminds me I have to get back to that one thread about Hamon; I promise I will!)