Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018

[DavidB.]

Not surprised at all by the comments here. God willing, Bolsonaro will have a speedy recovery and receive a sympathy boost because of this, helping him to win the election and crack down mercilessly on groups inspired by the same ideas as the perpetrator of the attack.

[DavidB.]

All the violent far-left keyboard warriors will be less happy when Bolsonaro inevitably becomes president and treats the far-left in the exact same way that they would treat him if they ever came to power, which they fortunately won't. I'll have a lechaim for Bolsonaro's speedy recovery and electoral success. Great poll.

[DavidB.]

Go Bolsonaro !!!  Hope he wins on the first round even if that seems unlikely.

Why anyone who is not Brasilian would like to suport that human garbage? Because I understand that many Brazilians have some resentiment towards PT, they feel that they need change etc. and they have some particular interest like big farms owners or protestants. But foreigners?

Because not everyone has the same values as you? Rooting for Bolsonaro too.

[DavidB.]

Any exit polls for the presidential race?

I voted Bolsonaro (would have voted Amoêdo but he doesn't have a chance) for president, Romeu Zema for governor, Rodrigo Paiva and Rodrigo Pacheco for senate, Tiago Mitraud for federal deputy and Bernardo Bartolomeu for state deputy.

The polls will close in some minutes and exit polls wil come soon.

Nice!

[DavidB.]

Guys, what are your predictions for the pres exit polls for the main candidates, and then your predictions for the second round?

Guess Bolsonaro is in the low to mid 40s now and will win the runoff with a decent margin.

[DavidB.]

Yesterday a Brazilian guy who appears to be a Bolsonaro supporter requested my friendship in Facebook. He has a shirt of the Brazilian football team with the number 17 (Ronaldinho endorses that trash, apparently). I would spit that guy in the eye instead. It's crazy.

It seems that Brazilian elite and a good chunk of the middle class are very happy with the fascist. Highway to Hell

I don't know, man, but if you would spit this guy in the eye for his political preferences when he did nothing bad to you, it may be you who behaves like a fascist, not him.

The overblown rhetoric about Bolsonaro's "fascism" (I even saw an article in Foreign Policy comparing him to Goebbels) has only led to a far-left attack on him. In the Netherlands we've seen what happened to Pim Fortuyn. I wonder if this is a deliberate tactic and if the supposedly "respectable" leftists just want Bolsonaro to be "taken out".

[DavidB.]

Bolsonaro at 49% in the count, Haddad at 26% with 53% in.

[DavidB.]

Absolutely solid result for Bolsonaro if the exit polls turn out to be true. Runoff campaign will still be exciting but he should definitely be able to pull this off. Good news.

[DavidB.]

Looks like the count has been stuck at 68% counted for a while.  What is the holdup ?

To be honest I am surprised that they are counting so fast with such big amount of votes. In Poland we would have now maybe first conference of Electoral Commision and maybe no partial results still.

Brazil has electronic voting.

[DavidB.]

Bolsonaro is probably going to be over 46%, even outperforming the (accurate) exit poll. What a result. It keeps getting better after Pechtold's resignation and Kavanaugh's confirmation.

[DavidB.]

Bolsonaro just hit 49 million votes.

[DavidB.]

NOVO and PP won't officially endorse anyone.

What's the deal with NOVO? Bolsonaro is too "statist"?

[DavidB.]

An Ideia/Big Data poll has Bolsonaro at 54%, Haddad at 46% of valid votes (and 48% vs. 41% including invalid votes). The other polls were 58/42 and 59/41.

[DavidB.]

Rejection

Haddad 47%
Bolsonaro 35%

Wow.

[DavidB.]

Even if Bolsonaro does turn out to be very authoritarian, theocracy seems a misnomer here.

[DavidB.]

Valid votes

Bolsonaro 59%
Haddad 41%

Rejection

Haddad 54%
Bolsonaro 41%

95% of Bolsonaro said they are sure of their vote and 5 % said they might change their it.

89% of Haddad voters are sure of their vote and 10% said they might change their it.

67% of all voters think the debates are very important but 76% wouldn't change their vote because of them. 73% think Bolsonaro should attend the debates.

This race is over.

[DavidB.]

If there are no debates and no blow-back for Bolsonaro  then given these rejection rates for Haddad I find it hard to see how Haddad wins.  I still think the final result will be a lot closer than these polls suggest.

I think the result will be something like this if no major changes happen in the race. I don't think it will necessarily tighten. There are many non-Bolsonaro voters in the first round who will not vote for Haddad. They're not just in denial about their final choice, they really refuse to vote for him.

[DavidB.]

And quite possibly since Haddad established a clear lead over Gomes after receiving Lula's benediction.

You're probably right here.

[DavidB.]

Ibope has Bolsonaro 57 (-2), Haddad 43 (+2).

[DavidB.]

The race seems to have tightened from 59-41 to 56-44 territory, but definitely not as much as the Vox Populi poll suggests.

Prediction (valid votes): Bolsonaro 56.5%, Haddad 43.5%, turnout 76.5%.

[DavidB.]

55.6-44.4 with 92% in.

[DavidB.]

Good news for Brazil.