On another note, do you think that there is any chance of the Haredim and Jewish Home not being part of a functioning government? In my opinion, it can only happen 1. Without Bibi and 2. With one of the major parties (Likud and Labour or Likud and Yesh Atid) weaker than the winner's party but still strong enough to form a unity government with centrist parties. It seems to me, increasingly, that a majority of Israelis want the Rabbinate out of their lives, supports gay rights, etc. It's just not the main issue for people yet, but that train business got close.
The conflict between Bibi and Lapid made any government without the haredim very unlikely -- as long as Lapid sticks around, that is. The 2013-2014 experiment basically failed and I don't think Bibi or any other Likud leader would be willing to give it another shot, especially because this is not just a clash between parties but also a clash between the worldview of the electorates of Likud on the one hand and "centrist" parties on the other hand (Kulanu being an exceptional case because of Kahlon's appeal to Mizrahi voters -- just look at Kulanu's electoral map of 2015). Basically Likud voters hate "leftists" (whether they are actually leftists matters less than perception) more than haredim, and haredim hate leftists more than "traditional" people or hawks. Cooperating with the haredim is much less troublesome and inconvenient for Bibi than cooperating with centrists, and we all know he doesn't give a toss about the policy consequences.
As for JH, they like to bark, but they have been a loyal ally of Bibi and I don't expect that to change anytime soon, though some trouble could occur with Tekuma. But ultimately JH are natural allies and given Likud's pivotal position in Israeli politics, the impossibility of a non-Likud coalition, and Bibi's dislike of cooperating with centrist parties, a coalition without JH seems unlikely, though it could happen if a majority is reached with Likud, UTJ, Shas and Lieberman already. A coalition without JH is more likely than a coalition without the haredim.
As for the rabbinate: yes, a majority probably disagree with what's going on there, just as a majority of Israelis support gay marriage. But the status-quo is going to change on none of these issues because of the influence of the haredim (which partly stems from the electoral system), and most voters are ultimately swayed by other concerns and issues -- especially those who reluctantly support change but don't care that much and eventually end up voting Likud anyway, which is a big group. I don't think anything is going to change anytime soon on all of these issues, which means politics is out of sync with public opinion. This inflexibility is obviously something that makes politics deeply depressing to many Israelis, as you probably know better than I...
