538 Model Megathread

[DavidB.]

Known fraud Nate is totally going to be discredited after his model proves to be waaaay too Republican-friendly. There is no way Trump has a 50% chance to win FL or NC, and there's also no way the GOP have more than a 50% chance to hold the Senate, as 538 currently predicts.

[DavidB.]

1. The adjusting/unskewing of the polls, often in one direction.
2. It's not so much the model itself (though it is too GOP-friendly even if Silver himself is not; by saying it's close you can't be too wrong in any event) as his sweaty statements on Twitter on how the race is really much closer than people make it out to be. It's not, and pushing the horse race frame is just a cheap way to make people click on your site. That's clickbait, not real journalism. He has done this all the time.