Israel general discussion

[DavidB.]

Rivlin is only "to the right of Netanyahu" if you view a one-state solution as inherently more right-wing than a two-state solution, which is pretty far-fetched. Surely someone "to the fringe of the right" would not cancel a concert because the artist had triggered people on the left by dropping a truth bomb, and surely someone "to the fringe of the right" would pardon Elor Azaria. Rivlin can hardly be considered to be right-wing at all. I also have no idea how Ya'alon could be considered to be to the right of Netanyahu. But yes, it is undoubtedly true that political alliances in Israel (much like in many other countries), and within the Likud in particular, are based more on personal strategic alliances than on ideological grounds.

[DavidB.]

It would be good for the ideological direction of Likud to be out of the government for a while, but it would probably not be good for Israel to have another party take over control, even if I'm obviously very critical of Likud's record on many issues (most importantly the economy/oligopolies/costs of living/poverty). I also don't believe Lapid will truly win an election. People will eventually turn out for Netanyahu; 2015 all over again.

[DavidB.]

At this point Likud are actually surprisingly comparable to a number of leading "conservative" parties in Central and Eastern Europe. The populist tone, the stirring up of meaningless controversies that make ordinary people outraged yet have no ramifications for policy and distract from real problems, the status-quo oriented policies mainly or solely aimed at keeping the party leader(s) in power, the blatant corruption. Likud, PiS, GERB, HDZ... there are differences, but also a lot of similarities. It reflects poor on Israeli politics that this party remains the least bad option to lead a government, though if YA could work together with the religious right without Likud that would be an interesting option too (but unrealistic).

[DavidB.]

The BY primary takes place today. Party leader Naftali Bennett should be safe. Voting started at 2PM at various polling stations across the country and will go on until 10. Results are supposed to come in at about 11, since voting takes place electronically. Turnout is over 25% already. Two candidates are trying to take on Bennett: Rabbi Yitzhak Zagha and Yonatan Branski, the former head of the religious army unit Nahal Haredi; both appear to be to Bennett's right.

[DavidB.]

Bennett allegedly won it, 80.3% with over 50% turnout. Branski got 12.2%.

[DavidB.]

Knessetjeremy's polling average for March+April (change compared to Jan+Feb) in seats:
Yesh Atid 25.8 (-0.6)
Likud 25.6 (+2.6)
Joint Arab List 12.7 (+0.1)
Bayit Yehudi 12.1 (-0.1)
Zionist Union 10.7 (-0.3)
UTJ 7.3 (-0.3)
Kulanu 6.7 (+0.5)
Yisrael Beiteinu 6.6 (-1.2)
Shas 6.3 (-0.5)
Meretz 6.2 (-0.2)

Right-religious coalition 64.6 (+1)
Center-left-Arab opposition 55.4 (-1)

Secular center-right YA-Likud-Kulanu-YB currently numerically possible, but of course unlikely to happen, especially if another two-horse race with YA instead of ZU takes place. Lapid will also want to be PM.

Will Labour use the Zionist Union label again next time? What's the deal with Livni?

[DavidB.]

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/228988

It's really well past time for Israel to get tough with UNESCO. Stop acknowledging them as a legitimate branch of the UN and treat them as the enemy entity they are. Deny anyone with UNESCO credentials the authority to do any work in Israel.

Either the UN can rein in their rogue branch, or they can double down. If that's the case, then the UN is the enemy as well and should be treated as such.

The joke's on them -- at this point resolutions like these hurt the legitimacy of UNESCO and the UN more than Israel's claim to Jerusalem... But I obviously agree with your proposed policy.

[DavidB.]

Willing to take a bet that Israel is not actually withdrawing from Eurovision.

[DavidB.]

Willing to take a bet that Israel is not actually withdrawing from Eurovision.

It's not, the European media just misunderstood. Hopefully the new broadcasting corporation will be able to get us back in.

They didn't misunderstand, Ofer Nachshon literally said that because he wanted to take a political jab at the government for shutting down the IBA.

[DavidB.]

Partisan breakdown of the Czech vote here. All parties voted for except for the Social Democrats (most abstained, 8 yea, 4 nay) and Communists (most opposed it). Czechia is pretty pro-Israel.

[DavidB.]

do you know anything about this?

seems to be more the exception than the rule in the region.

Czech-Jewish relations in the 20th century were less strained than Hungarian-Jewish or Polish-Jewish relations and antisemitism wasn't as widespread. Part of it is that Czechs don't have their national identity tied to a religion. While being Polish is heavily tied to being Catholic and being Hungarian is at least tied to being Christian, the Czechs were nominally Catholic but this was a religion imposed on them by the Austrian Empire (see also the Wiki article on the defenestrations of Prague). Once the Austrians left, a Maria Pillar was even torn down in the Old City of Prague because as a Catholic symbol it represented Austrian rule to the Czechs. So Jews didn't pose a religious threat to Czechs' national identity. After the war there were essentially no Jews in Czechia anymore and the country forcefully became secular. After Communism secularization continued because as opposed to other countries in the region, the Czechs' religion wasn't tied to their national identity.

For obvious reasons, Nazism/Nazi Germany is typically despised by nationalists too (as opposed to some nationalists in countries that were allied with the Germans), so both from a historical and from a religious or national perspective there is very little that makes Czechs dislike Jews.

Of course, countries like Hungary and Poland aren't nearly as antisemitic as they were before, and in terms of international politics they are more pro-Israel than most Western European countries... but the level of antisemitism in Czechia is definitely lower than in other Eastern European countries for the aforementioned reasons. Sorry for rambling, hope this is a bit coherent.

[DavidB.]

i would still argue that hungary and poland are - on the personal/single citizen level - more antisemitic than, let's say, austria/netherlands, but on a foreign policy level i think you are correct.

Absolutely true. I experienced this myself on the subway in Budapest where I was cursed at (there was some research and Budapest is apparently the *most* antisemitic place in Hungary -- you'd expect it to be the least antisemitic place, right?). Wouldn't compare Austria to the Netherlands though: Austria is quite a bit more antisemitic than the Netherlands, at least when it comes to the prevalence of classic antisemitic stereotypes (see the annual ADL survey).

[DavidB.]

Shas, Deri is again under criminal investigation, what will happen if he is indicted is a mystery.

More emotional meetups with lots of supporters + his children crying?

[DavidB.]

When do we get the result of this? Feels like this has been taking longer than the Democratic primary did.

[DavidB.]

I'm getting more and more convinced that economic injustice is the most urgent problem in Israel and that it has to be solved. Corruption, oligarchy and extreme capitalism affect the nation negatively in all sorts of ways. Many people are almost enslaved by their employer.

Who should I support if I want a Labour Party that is focused on the dire employment situation millions of Israelis face and wants to change the complete system, but isn't interested in embracing the far-left NGOs and anti-Zionists, has a sense of responsibility when it comes to national security and cares about Israel's Jewish future?

[DavidB.]

nooo, you joining the dark side

I'd never actually vote for them. Despite my left-wing economic views in Israel, my Zionism is still the right-wing type. But I'd prefer to have a Labour leader who is closer to me ideologically than one who stands further away from me.

[DavidB.]

Turnout 33.3% now.

[DavidB.]

And David, I do not believe in this great social injustice (data clearly points the other way), but I guess Ben Zaken is closest to what you're looking for (in Labour)

I'm not into the toxic idpol stuff that will only divide people. When I talk about economic injustice I mean poverty, not racism. We need to live that tribal galut stuff behind us instead of framing it in 21st century SJW terms. '

After reading up on it, it seems that Gabay and Herzog are the least bad ones to me.

[DavidB.]

He's a big supporter of increased funds going to the Jewish periphery, he's also light on the idpol (those lot actually found themselves all over the place this time around).

Ah, I thought he was very much into that. That doesn't sound bad.

Maybe they talk about racism and Yemenite babies because intense poverty isn't really an issue and they know it (and Likud knows it...)

You may be right, but surely there is a rather large gap between the rich and the poor (though this figure is also affected by the life choices of Haredim and Arabs...) and there are many people who very much struggle to get by, are piling up debt, earn barely more than minimum wage (4630 NIS is barely a living wage in Israel, and that already implies someone gets to work full time) etc. I'm not saying Israel is like Turkey or Russia, but there are people who are poor and have a very tough time, and a party like Labour should first and foremost be there to improve living conditions for these people, as well as for the people who earn slightly more but can be helped to live a better life.

[DavidB.]

In all honesty Margalit was the candidate I was most afraid of in terms of potential electoral success, so I'm glad he didn't qualify for the runoff...

[DavidB.]

Who will you guys be voting for?

[DavidB.]

Ah, for some reason I thought you were a Labour member too, but I should have known. How did Gabay leave Kulanu again? Will cooperation with Kulanu be easier or more difficult with Gabay at the helm of Labour?

As for Peretz, if he wins, Lapid should just make ads with this...


A May 26 Migron poll showed that all parties are still at roughly the same level as in the 2015 election, except that YA have taken about half of ZU's voters. GE15 in brackets.

30 [30] Likud
22 [11] Yesh Atid
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [24] Zionist Union
09 [08] Bayit Yehudi
07 [10] Kulanu
07 [07] Shas
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
06 [05] Meretz
00 [–] Yaalon Party

[DavidB.]

Quite some non-Haredi Mizrahim vote for Shas; people who are "traditional" (i.e. who don't keep all the Jewish laws but who nonetheless find a certain level of observance to be important) and were inspired by the late Sephardic Chief Rabbi Ovadia Yosef have continued to vote for Shas too.

That said, yes, one would perhaps expect a more left-wing party economically competing for the votes of "hawkish", nationalist voters that are less well-off (which would mainly, but not exclusively, be Mizrahim, Russians and Ethiopians). I think there are a few explanations. The most important one, I think, is that much of the political debate on economic issues is overshadowed by a) the Arab-Israeli conflict and disagreement on the status and future of the areas that were taken over in 1967 and b) religion-state issues; ethnic and religious identity politics. This causes people who are strongly right-wing nationalists to vote for the right regardless of their economic program. Another explanation is that many of the abovementioned people feel highly emotionally attached to the Likud, as a family tradition. What's more, the political debate on economics in Israel in general takes place much less orderly and ideologically than in Western Europe, which a lot of populism, many soundbites and little ideological direction. This is not an explanation in itself, but it makes for an atmosphere in which politicians are more often distrusted and it is perhaps less clear how voting for a certain party will affect you financially (parties often lack manifestos too). Yet another explanation would be that the Israeli economy has been growing steadily for the last 30 years or so, with improving living conditions for most of the people in the abovementioned categories.

Arguably Labour and its predecessors had the profile you described for a long time in their history, at least before the First Intifada, though they lost most of the electorate you mentioned in the 70s already.

[DavidB.]

The vast majority of Labour members are Ashkenazim and the fact that both candidates are Mizrahim is very unlikely to affect turnout since it just doesn't work like that, and plenty of Ashkenazi Labour members will be voting for Peretz too. What may affect turnout, however, is the fact that both candidates have their flaws and that there may be many Labour voters who aren't inspired by either of them.

[DavidB.]

I'm just glad Herzog lost.

Why? He was one of the better ones ideologically, and one of the worse ones electorally. Win-win.