Stormy Daniels and the 2016 Election

[Duke of York]

It seems like a relevant time to ask this question since the assumption that this would harm Trump cost $130,000 and might yield worse consequences for Trump (if we're so fortunate).

I personally say no. If he could get away with the Access Hollywood this wouldn't have affected much if all else remained the same. So, to me, this was all for nothing.

On the other hand, maybe if Comeygate never happened and this was the most widely discussed story going into November, maybe it could have swung the big three a percentage or two to Clinton.

What do you all think?

If Comey had kept his mouth shut Clinton would have won.

[Duke of York]

If it comes out after the Access Hollywood tape OR news of Comey re-opening the Clinton investigation then I think it definitely swings.  Trump was floundering post-Access tape and what got the narrative changed was Comey re-opening the Clinton investigation, which pushed the Access tape to the margins again and gave Trump's last few weeks some breathing space.

If the Daniels issue comes up, I definitely think it depresses some of the social conservative vote for Trump just enough.  After all, we're talking about less than 100k votes across three states here to give Clinton a win.

If Comey had kept his mouth shut Clinton would have won.