British Local Elections, May 2024

[Duke of York]

These elections are going to be brutal for the Conservatives. Sky News will be extremely fun to watch.

[Duke of York]

These elections are going to be brutal for the Conservatives. Sky News will be extremely fun to watch.

they dont have that much seats to begins with this time

Weren’t these seats last up in 2021 when they made gains?

[Duke of York]

First poll for London mayor since Feb:
https://twitter.com/Savanta_UK/status/1771103272201331148

This will be the first London mayoral election held via First Past the Post.

[Duke of York]

How do people think Labour will do Lincoln and Coventry? Labour lost one seat to the Green in Coventry last year and two to the Liberal Democrats in Lincoln.

 Could Lincoln go to no overall control?

[Duke of York]

How do people think Labour will do Lincoln and Coventry? Labour lost one seat to the Green in Coventry last year and two to the Liberal Democrats in Lincoln.

 Could Lincoln go to no overall control?

So you want a bit more info than what I provided above? Both don't really seem competitive, because remember - this is the 2021 Tory Wave class even in the Labour areas - but...

Coventry: The Greens took Holbrook ward in 2022 on a fairly large swing from Labour to get initial foot in the door. They targeted the ward again in 2023 and got a second seat, but this time by 2%. So it's no guarantee they can go 3/3 - Labour fought hard against them in 2023 and were disappointed they lost the seat. It's not a guaranteed loss. Maybe the Greens will come from nowhere in other wards, but that is their target.

On the Conservative side they hold the wards of Cheylesmore and Sherbourne here, wards Labour won in 2023. Those are targets. The four west wards seem safer for the Conservatives, even with the odd Labour councilor elected for Westwood ward in 2022, so them falling would be an improvement for Labour on 2023.

Lincoln: Look at the seats up. Labour only need to hold 2 of their 5 seats to retain control. 4 of the 5 up they hold every councilor in the three classes, and previously won by not-so-insignificant margins. Obviously a local wave can sweep them out, but barring that control is safe.

Even though local Labour have seemingly made a feew missteps, this again is a year they have more targets than defense. I found a quote of the local Conservative leader saying that they do not expect to outrun the national headwinds. Labour won the four Tory wards of Birchwood, Hartsholme, Minster, and Moorland in 2023, and 2 of those 4 in 2022.

The Lib-Dems have better prospects. The party has been gaining ground over the past few years in the eastern corner and that second Glebe ward they won in 2023 will probably flip. They however are starting below 10% everywhere else. If there is actually any noticeable local backlash, they will probably be gaining votes everywhere, but might only see flips in those same Tory wards from before.

Thanks for this.

I know there was a lot of backlash in Lincoln due to the canceling of the Christmas market.

[Duke of York]

The entire Labour group on Pendle council have left the party, a few days before nominations close for this year's election.

why did they leave?

[Duke of York]

Can Labour win back control of the Oxford city council despite several councilors going independent?

[Duke of York]

How do they make the estimate for when a council will be declared?

[Duke of York]

I understand why its being done but it seems many of the local by elections being held May 2nd are in councils where there isn't a regular election.

[Duke of York]

What are the chances the Greens get a majority in Bristol?

[Duke of York]

Is it possible BBC or Sky News will report results of local by elections in councils where there isn’t a scheduled election?

[Duke of York]

any chance Labour can gain Sheffield?

[Duke of York]

any chance Labour can gain Sheffield?

Theoretically possible but rather unlikely given the number of councillors who left their group this year. Even if that hadn't been the case it would have been touch and go.

can they gain the seats back this year?

[Duke of York]

Curious about Cambridge as well. Labour lost a seat in by election to the Conservatives possibly over opposition to congestion pricing plan.

Could the council go to NOC?

[Duke of York]

Curious about Cambridge as well. Labour lost a seat in by election to the Conservatives possibly over opposition to congestion pricing plan.

Could the council go to NOC?

Very unlikely but not impossible. Labour are not overrepresented in the seats up this year and a repeat of last year would certainly keep their majority. The Conservative success was in a by-election rather than regular election, and the congestion charge plan is dead. There could still be some lingering effect, but it would only really endanger Labour’s majority if there were a ton of Lab22-Con23-LD24 voters in key wards.

Thanks for the insight!. Cambridge seems to have become safe Labour at all levels in recent years. Are there any seats they could lose?

Could the by election loss have been a factor in the congestion charge plan being scrubbed.

[Duke of York]

British feminism moment

https://twitter.com/thelincolnite/status/1781070275443831241

Interesting platform. Going to be an uphill battle for her though. Labour won this ward with an increased majority in 2023.

[Duke of York]

I'm very dubious about polling these elections, but it's important to note that these are low-turnout affairs for posts that are, in all honesty, not very powerful or even especially high-profile.

A fun thing that just came to mind is that the demise of local Government & the complete powerless of elected council in the last decade (against a tide of cuts, changes etc) is that a lot of Westminster and the media has convinced themselves that these Metro Mayors must be powerful & influential- some of the old local government figures in the 70s and 80s (and long before) had much more influence than these mayors!

how are local councils powerless?

[Duke of York]

seems BBC is allowing international viewers again though I still prefer Sky News's coverage. BBC's last year was rather boring.

[Duke of York]

BBC Results Central Site. Their TV stream will not start till before Midnight.

https://www.bbc.com/news/election/2024/england/results

Seems Sky News will do the same.

[Duke of York]

Obviously plenty of salt needed...

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1786147033314717907

I have serious doubts. That would be a massive blow to Labour and would mean every single poll was completely off.  If i was a Labour MP I would call on Starmer to resign if that came to fruition.

[Duke of York]

Obviously plenty of salt needed...

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1786147033314717907

I seem to recall the exact same being said of Shaun Bailey’s chances in 2021, only for him to be beaten comfortably (although, in fairness, it wasn’t the utter curbstomping that was predicted by the polls either and I assume that will again be the case).

I think that was because the more Tory friendly boroughs counted first.

If it's true and I have serious doubts it is because it would mean a massive polling error Starmer should resign as leader because something has fundamentally changed and would mean possibly more unexpected loses for Labour.

[Duke of York]

I have serious doubts. That would be a massive blow to Labour and would mean every single poll was completely off.  If i was a Labour MP I would call on Starmer to resign if that came to fruition.

If Khan were to lose (which remains unlikely, though the general feeling within the Labour Party throughout has been that the result is likely to be closer than it 'ought' to be as much of Labour's local elections vote does not like Khan) then it would be on no one but himself.

why would it be on him?

[Duke of York]

There was also this direct reply for the CCHQ tweet

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1786150982579065118

who is this Theo Usherwood? Is he reputable?

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1786170866180424146?t=riagrlh4nheiSzo9a...

First council result.

By election hold. This council is not up this year.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1786171855604174930

big surprise for Reform there.