Early Voting thread.

[Duke of York]

NYC Zeldin surge?

https://twitter.com/brigidbergin/status/1587172770772910082?s=20&t=QjprSjSFK...

I’m not sure NYC is exactly where Zeldin would want higher turnout.

It isn't. The higher the turnout there the better for Hochul.

[Duke of York]

NYC Zeldin surge?

https://twitter.com/brigidbergin/status/1587172770772910082?s=20&t=QjprSjSFK...

I’m not sure NYC is exactly where Zeldin would want higher turnout.

I know NY turnout is always god awful but those early vote numbers are not very impressive.

New York did not have early voting until 2019 so there is not much data to compare. 50 percent of 2020 is not bad at all.

[Duke of York]

Not sure if it's prudent, but day 4 of early voting in NYC is done, so I wanted to see how it compared to 2020's first 4 days of EV

after 4 days in 2022 / after 4 days in 2020 / 2022 share of 2020

Manhattan - 55,799/100,533 (55.5%)
Bronx - 16,089/66,393 (24.2%)
Brooklyn - 49,045/149,368 (32.8%)
Queens - 35,246/95,899 (36.8%)
Staten Island - 15,598/45,542 (34.2%)

Manhattan truly blowing it out of the water, so clearly the white liberals in NYC are energized. Turnout looking similar among Brooklyn, Queens, Staten Island, where they've amassed around 1/3 of the 2020 EV so far. Bronx is the only one off,

Overall, early vote turnout through 4 days is 38% of 2020 EV. Obviously not a great comparison since it's also a prez year, but thought it was still interesting.

Given Staten Island is one place where you'd expect a ~Zeldin surge~, it doesn't seem to be appearing just yet, at least in EV.

If these numbers hold Hochul may have NYC to thank for getting a full term.

[Duke of York]

Hate to say I told you so… but it’s not surprising that one of the country’s best Democratic turnout operations immediately collapsed after the state party was hijacked by a bunch of communist LARPers.

What a self own by them.

[Duke of York]

Let me go on a limb here and say that Independent voters aren't going to vote for Dems in this environment.

I think you're missing what people are saying - In Nevada in particular, most new/younger voters are automatically registered as Other since 2020. So it's possible that a lot of those "other" voters are younger voters, which could tilt the "Independent" margins.

Younger. Voters. Aren't. Voting.

Unaffiliated voters in Nevada who have cast votes so far are 18% under 40. At this point in 2020, this number was 33%.

Its always amazing to me how much they complain yet they can't get off Reddit or TikTok to be bothered to register or vote.