Isn't Youngkin running a quasi-single-issue campaign on anxieties/prejudices/whatever you want to call them related to education policy ("CRT", the Bathroom Question, etc.)? If so, and if he wins, I'll take it as confirmation of my sinking feeling that the "cultural left" has badly misjudged where the country is on this stuff and most American parents are, in the end, just not very punk rock when it comes to what they mean when they ask the question "is our children learning?".
He's running a Gillespie 2.0 campaign. Yes it's 100% based on racism, xenophobia, homophobia, poor rural white people who are mad at the UMC, etc. etc. A campaign of rage. Essentially the Trump/MS-13 playbook of 2017 with new racist/homophobic issues inserted. But he's also trying to pretend he's a moderate who will cut your taxes. He's going to "cut taxes" and also "increase spending for law enforcement." He's going to "unite all Virginians" while running a campaign dividing them on CRT. He's trying to get out his army of deplorable while appealing to NOVA moderates. It won't work. He's acting like the state is full of low income, low information resentful voters from Montana not like he's running in a diverse state that doesn't want this level of divisiveness.
I very much hope your correct.