SirWoodbury's California Recall Prediction

[Duke of York]

Newsom ends up being narrowly recalled, and Elder becomes the new governor.

I just don't see San Diego county voting for the recall. Due to your miscalculation here and some other large metros in the state, Newsom retains his office. Let's consider for a moment Elder won, what would be his strategy for winning next November? Even if he became governor this year, he'd be gone 15 months later.

Larry Elder could narrowly get re-elected next year due to the fact that it will be a Biden midterm. Still, he would be screwed in 2026 and would easily lose to Tom Steyer.

Nah. I don't see Elder getting re-elected in a general election.