NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[Duke of York]

This race can be one of the closest Gov race in NY History, I expect Hochul to win but it won't be a landslide, I would be shocked if Hochul does lose like we were all shocked I'm an R wave Quinn lost but in an R plus 5 Environment IL, NY or Cali can flip Newsom had such high Approvals during Recall now they are 47%

If the recall were held today Newsom would not have 51 to avoid defeat

Neither Hochul or Newsom is losing.

[Duke of York]

This race can be one of the closest Gov race in NY History, I expect Hochul to win but it won't be a landslide, I would be shocked if Hochul does lose like we were all shocked I'm an R wave Quinn lost but in an R plus 5 Environment IL, NY or Cali can flip Newsom had such high Approvals during Recall now they are 47%

If the recall were held today Newsom would not have 51 to avoid defeat

Neither Hochul or Newsom is losing.

Newsom is not losing, but Hochul could lose the general to Cuomo. They are more registered Dems than Republicans and Pataki won in 1994, 1998 and 2002 because of crossover voters.

The NYGOP brand is tainted with Trump, corruption, etc

how would Hochul lose to Cuomo in the general? he's not winning as an independent and there is no way he'd run as a Republican.

[Duke of York]

Does Adams secretly back Cuomo returning to office? Possible he and Hochul will continue to long-time feud between NY govs and NYC mayors?

https://twitter.com/nypost/status/1511856168464961546

The deadline to file in the Democratic primary has passed. I doubt Cuomo runs as an independent.

[Duke of York]

if Benjamin resigns does Hochul get to appoint someone new and that person goes on the primary ballot?

[Duke of York]

if Benjamin resigns does Hochul get to appoint someone new and that person goes on the primary ballot?

She would get to appoint somebody new, but short of her appointing somebody else who's already qualified for the primary ballot (i.e., Ana Maria Archila, a progressive endorsed by AOC who's Benjamin's only primary challenger) or short of him winning the nomination in the primary & then resigning so that the state party's executive committee can fill the resultant vacancy in the nomination with Hochul's selection, there's no way for her nominee to be the Lt. Gov Democratic nominee.

New York ballot laws are so messed up. This needs to be changed.

[Duke of York]

According to NYT Benjamin is resigning

Who is replacing him? Any idea? Probably another black politician from New York, but there’s no shortage of those

Edit; here’s the CNN article

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/12/politics/brian-benjamin-new-york/index.html

The question is though well they be able to get on the ballot?

[Duke of York]

Hochul would be far more likely to endorse Suozzi over Williams anyway, if she dropped out/was forced out.

There is no reason to think she would be. There is zero evidence Hochul was involved in any way and the most recent poll shows her winning the primary easily.

[Duke of York]

Hochul at +18 approval per Morning Consult

https://morningconsult.com/2022/04/28/governor-approval-ratings-2022-election/

Unless something drastic happens Hochul will win another term. Incumbents very rarely lose if they have an approval rating of 50 or more.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/luisferre/status/1521482823521214464

Hopefully this is a better pick and, as much as I support diversity, not just one that checks a few boxes.

Can he still get on the ballot? I thought the filing deadline has already passed?

I believe the law was changed so he can. I doubt he would have accepted otherwise

[Duke of York]

Given Delgado was probably going to lose reelection anyways, this isn't really a bad move by Hochul.

It only stings if Delgado can't get on the ballot or can't win as a write-in.

I’m sure he will be on the ballot. I doubt he would have accepted otherwise.

[Duke of York]

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/politics/no-paperwork-filed-by-cuomo-as-ballot-deadline-to-run-for-ny-governor-in-2022-passes/3711895/

No Paperwork Filed by Cuomo As Ballot Deadline to Run for NY Governor in 2022 Passes

[Duke of York]

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/politics/no-paperwork-filed-by-cuomo-as-ballot-deadline-to-run-for-ny-governor-in-2022-passes/3711895/

No Paperwork Filed by Cuomo As Ballot Deadline to Run for NY Governor in 2022 Passes

It sounds to me like he's either aiming for the Presidential race or the Senate race in 2024.

There's no way he's delusional enough to think he could go for Prez.

He'll also have nothing else to do in 2024, and Biden is not going to get any more popular than he is now. Why shouldn't Cuomo engage his delusions of grandeur?

President Romney says hi

[Duke of York]

Last night was the first Gubernatorial debate.

According to the New York Times, Hochul came away the winner. Neither Suozzi nor Williams did particularly well, but it doesn't look like Suozzi did any real harm to his candidacy. It looks Williams might have actually done himself some damage though.

That said, unless Hochul bombs in the next debate, or there is a major scandal, she should easily win the primary.

I agree with this assessment. Williams didn't come off a a serious candidate to me and Suozzi only attacked especially with his stupid NRA comment. Her response to to it was great.

I expect her to easily win the primary.

[Duke of York]

Antonio Delgado and Ana Maria Archila trading high profile endorsements in the battleground Lieutenant Gubernatorial primary.

https://nypost.com/2022/06/22/aoc-endorses-lieutenant-governor-candidate-ana-maria-archila/

Delgado picked up the endorsement of the Uniformed Firefighters Association of New York, becoming the latest labor group to endorse him.

Archila, the favorite of progressives, was endorsed by Mijente, and more importantly, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

I think the Lieutenant Governor's primary, at least on the Democratic side, is currently Lean Archila. She's got great energy behind her, is running a campaign clearly independent of her running mate, and the presence of Diana Reyna might just drain enough votes from Delgado to tip the primary to Archila. I would like to see someone, even one of the candidates, conduct a poll of the primary before the primary on the 28th, though.

I have doubts about this. I never heard of her before a few days ago.

[Duke of York]

what do people think will happen in the Lieutenant Governor primary? I think Delgado wins but slightly underperforms  Hochul.

[Duke of York]

what do people think will happen in the Lieutenant Governor primary? I think Delgado wins but slightly underperforms  Hochul.

Either Archila or Delgado wins by a margin that's in recount territory.

It’s not going to be anywhere near that close. I had no idea who Archila was before a few days ago.

[Duke of York]

what do people think will happen in the Lieutenant Governor primary? I think Delgado wins but slightly underperforms  Hochul.

Either Archila or Delgado wins by a margin that's in recount territory.

It’s not going to be anywhere near that close. I had no idea who Archila was before a few days ago.

I also think it's underestimated the power of an endorsement by the gubernatorial candidate. Hochul has endorsed Delgado, and he's her running mate, so that's an automatic for most people.

Sort of similar is in PA. No one really knew statewide who Austin Davis was, but they knew Shapiro endorsed him and was his preferred running mate. He then went onto get 63% of the vote basically purely bc of that.

Did a gov candidate ever end up with a running mate he didn't want other than Cuomo the older in 1982? If I remember correctly, his unwelcome lt. gov. later resigned for being frustrated over the job.

Anyways, any separate elections for lt. gov, primary or general like in CA, should be abolished. Just let the top candidate pick his 2nd in command in have them run as a join ticket. Like POTUS and VPOTUS.

The current Governor is a woman. I think was the last time.

I agree with you it should be as a ticket in the primary.

[Duke of York]

The ballot design for the democratic primary is really stupid. Governor and lieutenant governor candidates are not paired together. People often vote straight across. I think that’s going to hurt Delgado. I hope I’m wrong.

[Duke of York]

I wonder by how much Hochul wins and whether she'll lose some counties? I guess she'll sweep Upstate and may lose Suffolk narrowly to Suozzi, perhaps the Bronx to Williams. Otherwise, she should get an absolute majority quite easily.

I think she will. The question is does Delgado win?

[Duke of York]

I'm sorry, what kind of nonsense headline is this? This is not a "Competitive" race in the fall???

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1541959335558914048

Yup, this is garbage. Even in 2014, the GOP candidate barely managed to get past 40% of the vote. Not much difference to be expected this time around. As I said, Zeldin doesn't even strike me as strong candidate for a state like NY. The dude voted to overturn the 2020 election and just promotes the usual right-wing talking points. Safe D/Hochul.

agreed. I think Hochul gets at least 60 percent given her likely strength upstate.

[Duke of York]

This was an amazing performance by Kathy Hochul, swept all counties and did very well in Upstate and on Long Island as well. I always insisted that people underestimated her political skills, this victory was hard work and fully earned. She has done pretty well in working with the legislature to get things done and has managed to score up important endorsements by reaching out to various groups.

I don't see the general election remotely competitive or Zeldin as a particularly strong candidate for New York. Just don't see it, he's a generic Republican hack with a strongly pro-Trump voting record and no real accomplishments. Although primaries are not really predictive for general matchups, Hochul should bring this home quite handily.

If she does end up with a strong victory and continues to get stuff done in Albany, I see no reason why she shouldn't be put in national spotlight. She might be one of the strongest Democratic women available then, and certainly stronger than Kamala. Her workingclass background from Buffalo might also be an asset here, and - though that's my personal opinion - comes off as a very likeable person.

Lastly, I was surprised by Delgado's strong performance. I thought he'd only win narrowly. People should keep an eye on him as well. He could go for governor or senator at a point when one seat is open.

I agree with your assessment. I was surprised both of them won every county. She should win fairly easily.

I've met Hochul. She is extremely likable.

Delgado very likely will run for Governor or Senator. I think the former is more probable.

[Duke of York]

This was an amazing performance by Kathy Hochul, swept all counties and did very well in Upstate and on Long Island as well. I always insisted that people underestimated her political skills, this victory was hard work and fully earned. She has done pretty well in working with the legislature to get things done and has managed to score up important endorsements by reaching out to various groups.

I don't see the general election remotely competitive or Zeldin as a particularly strong candidate for New York. Just don't see it, he's a generic Republican hack with a strongly pro-Trump voting record and no real accomplishments. Although primaries are not really predictive for general matchups, Hochul should bring this home quite handily.

If she does end up with a strong victory and continues to get stuff done in Albany, I see no reason why she shouldn't be put in national spotlight. She might be one of the strongest Democratic women available then, and certainly stronger than Kamala. Her workingclass background from Buffalo might also be an asset here, and - though that's my personal opinion - comes off as a very likeable person.

Lastly, I was surprised by Delgado's strong performance. I thought he'd only win narrowly. People should keep an eye on him as well. He could go for governor or senator at a point when one seat is open.

I agree with your assessment. I was surprised both of them won every county. She should win fairly easily.

I've met Hochul. She is extremely likable.

Delgado very likely will run for Governor or Senator. I think the former is more probable.

Could also depend on how long Hochul is in office since Delgando has plenty of time while Tish James may give it another shot whenever the seat opens. I personally would favor James to replace Merrick Garland though.

Hochul will likely get at least two terms. Delagdo will be well positioned to be her successor at that point. James will be approaching seventy at that point. Age doesn't matter though.

[Duke of York]

Hochul should easily surpass Cuomo's pathetic performance Upstate in 2018. He only won 6 counties, and Tompkins was the only one where he exceeded 53%.

I agree and part of it is due to the fact she is first Upstate Governor since FDR and the first Governor from Buffalo since Grover Cleveland.

[Duke of York]

Hochul should easily surpass Cuomo's pathetic performance Upstate in 2018. He only won 6 counties, and Tompkins was the only one where he exceeded 53%.

She prolly dramatically underperforms Cuomos performance on Long and Staten Island margins cancelling at least part of her improvements upstate out.

what makes you think that?

[Duke of York]

Does anyone know if Jumaane Williams and Ana Maria Archila will remain on the November ballot as the nominees for the Working Families Party? It’s pretty hard to remove your name from the ballot in New York, so I wonder if their names will stay on the ballot. If they remain on the ballot, will they actively campaign? Or will they endorse Hochul/Delgado?

they will probably be nominated for another office on a minor party line. That's how Nixon got off the ballot in 2018.