State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsPA/status/1735366990707986502
This is a Biden +10 seat in Lower Bucks County, although the incumbent (who was a Dem) was unopposed last year.

Not impossible to see a flip, given what happened in Minnesota. It really seems like the special election environment has changed post November.

You’re making a huge assumption based on just one election.

[Duke of York]

Interesting that Dems continue to do well in these majority black specials. But I was told Dems would continue to implode with black voters...

and i was told there had been shift in special elections showing a worsening environment for Democrats yet this seems to indicate what happened in Minnesota and Delaware were outliers. Fun fact Tamika Devine ran for mayor of Columbia in 2022.

[Duke of York]

PA HD140
D 70%
R 30%

80% in

We're likely looking at a D+30-35 win I think at least by the end. Would be a 20-25% overperformance over Biden (+10)

wow not even close. I heard this district was bluer down ballot but this is insane.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/MichaelLangeNYC/status/1757604206817534026?t=9Rq1Y3R3j-tQ-Mc...

Also in NY, the Bronx vote has stalled at 1.4k total votes with some precincts not in. Looking like a Dem underperformance - but still a overall landslide - seemingly cause of this hyperfixation by the Republican on one neighborhood block.

For context, this is actually a single housing development, and the R candidate is the president of the residents association of this development (and also lives there).

They say all politics is local. Could explain the result.

[Duke of York]

Three tonight. The one in Minnesota I mentioned above and two in Kentucky, House districts 24 and 26. The two Kentucky seats are also very Safe R.

Dull night with nothing interesting in the presidential primaries either.

The Minnesota and Kentucky elections are next week

[Duke of York]

Minnesota results:
R   Bryan Lawrence   1,752   84.52%
DFL   Brad Brown   319   15.39%
WI   WRITE-IN   2   0.10%

Turnout was less than 10% though and the DFL didn't even really bother with a campaign or GOTV (no reason to) so this is about as useful as reading entrails after eating a plate of lasagna.

'

at least it wasn't uncontested.

[Duke of York]

Kentucky results: https://criticalreport.substack.com/p/ky-state-house-districts-24-26-specials

KY-HD 24:
Courtney Gilbert (R) 62.5% 1,025
Johnny Pennington (D)  22.7% 372
Craig Astor (Independent) (Write-in) 14.9% 244

Was Trump 78.5-20.2. Biden still received more votes (4,332) than were cast in the entire special.

KY-HD 26:
...actually Republican Peyton Griffee won unopposed. He received 100% of the vote...and a total of 75 votes. LMAO.

I would like to have seen him get zero votes. That would have been even funnier. I hate when people run unopposed in a special or general election. I always leave it blank in that case.

[Duke of York]

Kentucky results: https://criticalreport.substack.com/p/ky-state-house-districts-24-26-specials

KY-HD 24:
Courtney Gilbert (R) 62.5% 1,025
Johnny Pennington (D)  22.7% 372
Craig Astor (Independent) (Write-in) 14.9% 244

Was Trump 78.5-20.2. Biden still received more votes (4,332) than were cast in the entire special.

KY-HD 26:
...actually Republican Peyton Griffee won unopposed. He received 100% of the vote...and a total of 75 votes. LMAO.

I would like to have seen him get zero votes. That would have been even funnier. I hate when people run unopposed in a special or general election. I always leave it blank in that case.

I mean in theory at least he would've definitely voted for himself, so that means he was guaranteed one vote. Now THAT would've been hilarious.

He should have not even voted for himself.