So there's 11 special elections in the NY assembly and state senate next Tuesday 4/24. I've examined fundraising, facebook and twitter support, and news articles for each race and I've made some predictions.
First, here's the daily kos article briefly outlining each race: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/4/21/1758947/-April-24-New-York-s-Spring-Special-Elections-Spectacular
Here are my predictions:
SD-32: 93-4-3 (Sepulveda (D) wins)
SD-37: 57-42 (Mayer (D) wins)
AD-05: 59-41 (Smith (R) wins)
AD-10: 54-46 (Stern (D) wins) D FLIP
AD-17: 55-45 (Mikulin (R) wins)
AD-39: Unopposed (Espinal (D) wins)
AD-74: 82-14-2-2 (Epstein (R) wins)
AD-80: 84-16 (Fernandez (D) wins)
AD-102: 53-41-6 (Tague (R) wins)
AD-107: 51-49 (Ashby (R) wins)
AD-142: 51-49 (Bohen (R) wins) R FLIP - kind of - it’s complicated, read the DKOS blurb
My overall conclusion? It's going to be a horrible night for New York democrats.
Literally every candidate the party has put up in the competitive elections is out-manned in fundraising and Facebook support. Republican candidate's pages are flooded with support, likes, comments, and a common theme is Andrew Cuomo. His recent decision to give voting rights to parolees seems to have galvanized Republicans and I even saw a democratic candidate reacting defensively when asked about it by a commenter.
Democrats will pick up one seat though, AD-10 in Suffolk county, where county legislator Steve Stern (D) seems to be running a moderately well-funded and competent campaign in an Obama-Clinton district. But they'll lose a seat in Erie county, Obama-Trump AD-142, where the candidate on the Republican line is endorsed by the former assemblyman, even though he caucused with the Democrats.
Epstein whose running in AD-74 is a Democrat. A republican has no chance in that district.
AD-107 which is the Albany suburbs has a good chance to flip.
As someone working one of the campaigns in the special election extravaganza i have heard nothing about Cuomo restoring voting rights to Parolees. Facebook support is not a good indicator of support. If it were Schumer would have lost in 2016 and Gillibrand will lose in a landslide.
Assembly district 5 (Suffolk County) and 17 (Nassau County) are both heavily suburban. Republicans have been tanking in Suburban areas and its very possible both seats could flip.
