If this ticket had run in 2016, I could've seen it getting 5-7% (thoroughly cannibalizing most of Johnson's and McMullin's support plus some off of Clinton and Trump). I'm working off of the assumption that well over half of Gary Johnson's support was people too disgusted to vote for either Clinton or Trump rather than ideological Libertarians, which seems like a pretty safe guess given that Johnson himself isn't an ideological Libertarian.
I have a feeling voters are going to be a LOT more gun-shy about voting third party next election.
I would say that's a fair assessment all around. The poll that showed that 10% of Sanders supporters went for Trump also showed that 34% of Kasich supporters went to Clinton. There's probably some people that are ancestral Republicans and would've voted for Clinton anyway, but there's probably a decent chunk who would've voted for Kasich if he was the nominee (or even just someone other than Trump).
Basically we'd be looking at an Anderson 1980 redux. Who knows how the Dems and Reps would do in respect to each other though. It could be a 1980 redux with the Dems and Reps flipped.
