New Zealand Election 2017

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Yeah, it's a shocking poll. The race is still in flux. National ahead by 10 seems like a stretch.

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Yeah, it's a shocking poll. The race is still in flux. National ahead by 10 seems like a stretch.

Also Labour ahead by 15 in an earlier poll seems equally silly.  I suspect it's probably less than 5 points separating the main two.  I believe Colmar Bruton who is the most accurate will come out with one near the end of the week so interesting to see what they say.  If they show National pulling ahead then this could be onto something, but if they still show Labour ahead then probably a rogue poll.

Spot on with that 15 for Labour. I mentioned it in other posts in other sites/conversations. I don't trust that one for a moment.

I don't see anything that could have caused this seemingly random bounce for the Nationals.

Perhaps Joyce's $12 billion hole got to people? Also, apparently Labour has been somewhat secretive with their tax policy. Not sure that that adds up to a 10 point lead for National though.

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Yeah, it's a shocking poll. The race is still in flux. National ahead by 10 seems like a stretch.

Also Labour ahead by 15 in an earlier poll seems equally silly.  I suspect it's probably less than 5 points separating the main two.  I believe Colmar Bruton who is the most accurate will come out with one near the end of the week so interesting to see what they say.  If they show National pulling ahead then this could be onto something, but if they still show Labour ahead then probably a rogue poll.

Spot on with that 15 for Labour. I mentioned it in other posts in other sites/conversations. I don't trust that one for a moment.

I don't see anything that could have caused this seemingly random bounce for the Nationals.

Perhaps Joyce's $12 billion hole got to people? Also, apparently Labour has been somewhat secretive with their tax policy. Not sure that that adds up to a 10 point lead for National though.

Highly, highly unlikely, as this poll would have been taken entirely after it was exposed as a massive lie.

I think Colmar Brunton who has a good track record comes out later this week.  If they show National surging ahead then it is probably a trend, but if they still show Labour in the lead then likely a rogue poll.

Apparently Roy Morgan is likely coming out this week as well. They have a good track record as well, for what I've heard.

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My results

I would vote Green in hopes of a Labour/Green coalition.

My highest match was TOP, with 74%, then Labour at 71%, with the Greens in 3rd at 68%. Interesting that there isn't a super close match for me.

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Roy Morgan should supposedly come soon. Very glad to see the Greens at 7%. 51% overall is very good, given that there will be some wasted party votes. I'm guessing 5% or so. Likely TOP's 2% or so, Mana's 0.5%, whatever bits UF gets, plus random single issue parties.

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Both polls strongly suggest to me that Labour+Greens might just be enough to have a majority; on one they were 51% combined and the other has them 48.5%.  It would depend on whether there's any overhang (on those numbers I don't know whether ACT would cause an overhang if they won a constituency seat; if the Maori/Mana party pact works then that may well force an overhang as well) but usually a set of parties getting that close to 50% in an MMP election usually guarantees that they'll get a majority.

I'm pretty sure that no polls have NZ First and only one poll all campaign have had the Greens missing 5%.  If the latter did then it basically makes Peters the kingmaker able to go whichever way we wanted, if NZ First miss then it basically guarantees a Labour government unless the Nationals get very close to an overall majority.  I think that both will get in though, although both will lose seats - plus Peters has the outside chance of holding Northland which would be very handy for them if they are flirting with missing the threshold.

Historically, the Greens have done worse than their polling and NZ First has done better. The polling companies have apparently tried to correct for that; we'll see how they do in a week.

I talked to someone who has ties to the Labour Party and they said that Hone Harawira (Mana Party) isn't doing that well. Their party vote has collapsed, but Māori seat voters are willing to split their votes. I wouldn't count Harawira out without seeing a poll for Te Tai Tokerau though.

The Māori Party could potentially cause an overhang if they win 3 electorate seats, depending on their party vote. I think they'd have enough to get two seats regardless of whether they win one electorate or two.

ACT probably won't be an overhang. They seem to be polling about 0.6%, which should be enough, I think.

What are the odds of Winston Peters holding Northland?

Very unlikely, imo.

Also, this is what the Colmar Burton poll looks like when converted into seats:

Hard for me to say about Peters in Northland. Labour did abnormally poor in the by-election, which makes me think he might not be that strong if Labour rebounds a bit.

Also, concerning that parliamentary layout, I feel like Māori will win at least two seats.

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In terms of chances, what do you think the odds are for each.  I think in terms of popular vote it is truly a toss up.  I would give a slight advantage to Labour in forming government since if Labour + Greens get the majority they will definitely form government but if NZ First is the kingmaker I feel they could go either way.

My new predictions Sept. 15, 2017

Labour 42% 52 Seats
National 38.5% 48 Seats
NZ First 7.25% 9 Seats
Green 6.25% 7 Seats
Māori 2% 2 Seats
TOP 1.8% 0 Seats
ACT 0.7% 1 Seat
Mana 0.3% 0 Seats
United Future 0.05% 0 Seats
Others 1.15% 0 Seats

I narrowed Labour's lead by 0.5% from my last predictions from 8 days ago, Sept. 7, 2017. Labour would have to form a coalition with the Greens and Māori to form the next government. WINston's position as kingmaker is quite vulnerable, I'd say. NZ First has been declining in the polls (I have them down 1.75% from 8 days ago. WINston is also rather toxic and many potential coalition partners would reject working with him. Basically, NZ First needs to be strong enough to be the lone party needed for either a National or Labour government. 52+7+2 gives Labour+Greens+Māori a narrow lead in Parliament. 52+9 Labour+NZ First would give the same number, but I don't think that would be Jacinda's preference. At this point, I don't see National being able to form a coalition. Māori seems to be leaning towards Labour, United Future is toast, and ACT is only 1 seat versus NZFirst's 9. I wouldn't be shocked if this is ACT's last winning election.

Is Northland actually Winston Peter's best shot as a seat? My impression that NZ First's heartland was always Tauranga/Bay of Plenty thanks to the combination of wealthy retirees + Peter's friendly Maori. Winning Northland in a by election is all well and good, but as Mark Reckless would testify, a protest vote in a by election is a very different thing to the actual general election.

I know that Tauranga was his base back in the day. He seems to be trying to appeal to the "Make New Zealand Great Again" crowd. From what I've read, Northland in general (not just the electorate) has fallen on hard times over the last decade. WINston wants to build NZ's next main port up there as a means to revitalize the area.

I'd crack up if NZ First managed to hold on by winning an electorate that wasn't Peters's Northland seat. Without polling, it's hard to really say how he's doing up there though.

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Two things.

One: ACT tends to do well when National is demoralized and when National do badly. Much as the Greens do well when Labour are sh**t. If your natural party is in opposition, you tend to radicalise. So ACT may return in a reasonably big way in 2020, simply because there are no other plausible alternatives to National for right-wing voters, especially if NZ First are in coalition  with Labour.

Two: if Winston had run away from the fight in Northland, h ed have been called a chicken, and Winston doesn't like being called a chicken. Meanwhile, the voters of Tauranga have got wise to him, which is why they booted him out in the first place. And since then, his vote there has decreased whatever he does. That's with over half of his membership living in the electorate, by the way. So Northland is his only shot, and it isn't a great one. Their only other prospect of a gain is Whangarei, and there hat isn't happening either.

That is a good point; we've seen the Greens stumble (in part due to their internal problems) as Labour gains. ACT has been limping along like UF has (is it too soon to say "had"?). They haven't won more than Epsom since 2008. I guess it will only have been three elections, but I guess we'll see what happens in Jacinda wins.

Your first sentence about WINston seems absolutely right. Good to know about Tauranga. Whangarei doesn't seem to be biting according to a poll from there. Shane Jones is running in about second, far behind National's candidate and nearly tied with the third place Labour candidate. Poll on Wiki. I definitely wouldn't bet the farm on Winston winning in Northland. Not saying that he'll lose, but it will be narrow, I think.

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If Labour wins the election, I pray they do so with enough votes and seats such that they don't need Winston Peters (the Kiwi version of Stephen Bannon) as a kingmaker. 

Amen. I'm hoping on a Labour/Green coalition. Maybe Māori as well if Labour/Greens need two or so more seats.

Is there a possibility that the Greens overtake NZFirst?

Stranger things have happened, but I'm leaning no. Maybe a 1 in 12 chance of it happening?

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How does the speaker work.  Does the governing party always put one up as I am thinking if a coalition is only 61 seats the speaker would put them down to 60 seats although I am assuming they will break the ties, but do they break them along partisan lines or do they follow Denison's rules breaking them to maintain debate?

Of course someone from BC is asking this question haha. Can't say I have an answer though.

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Tbh it was pretty obvious if you follow NZ politics that Ardern would give Labour a significant boost, compared to Andrew Little. The question now is whether that's enough for Labour to go from 24% less than 2 months ago to actually winning the election.

Yeah, she was polling well (for a non-leader) in the preferred PM race for a while.

Going from 24% to being in close contention is basically Corbyn 2.0. The question, as you say, is whether or not she can pull it off.

According to this, we should have a good idea of the results very early on. Good thing because I don't want to stay up past 9 PM or so their time (2 AM Calif time).

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So, tonight and tomorrow night. Usually they seem to come out at 11 PM PST.

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Should be interesting although not sure much has happened to change things much and with advanced polls they could have less impact.  Could Ardern get some sympathy votes over the death of her Grandma?

I am thinking there are three things to watch for.

1.  Does Labour + Greens get a majority, possible but still I think not the most likely outcome

2.  Do Greens get above 5% or not.  If they get above that improves Labour's chances while if they get below it helps the National.

3.  Is New Zealand First the kingmaker and who do they go for.  If they become the kingmaker my understanding is we won't know until October 12th who will form the next government as that is when they will announce who they are backing.

I feel like Labour+Greens+Māori will have a majority. Not sure if Labour+Greens will. I think the Greens will break 5%.

That obviously would mean that NZ First won't be kingmaker. Honestly, I think Winston might lean Labour? Maybe? Not really sure.

Also, Hone will probably be out.

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Newshub Poll coming out at 6 PM Auckland time.  My guess is National will be in the lead but will it be a big lead or a small one.

So, 11 PM for us again. I'm guessing like a 5% lead for National. Greens+Labour will be ahead of National though.

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Any chance the polls are doing what they did in the UK, and adjusting their weightings to the point of being irrelevant?

Seems to be the pattern when their is a sudden change followed by wild fluctuations

I'm pretty sure I heard that Colmar Brunton changed their weighting with their last poll.

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Prediction:

National 42% 52 seats
Labour 39% 49 seats
Greens 7% 9 seats
NZ First 5.8% 7 seats
Māori 1.9% 2 seats (2 electorates)
TOP 1.8% 0 seats
ACT 0.7% 1 seat
Mana 0.3% 0 seats
Random BS (includes UF) 1.5% 0 seats
120 seats

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Can't say I expected the Māori Party to be doing so poorly.

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The only likely difference between these results and the final results are that the special votes will take one, possibly two, seats from the Nats and give them to Labour and/or the Greens.  That won't affect the mathematical situation though; any Labour-led government would need to include both NZ First and the Greens to get a majority.

Labour was always going to need both NZ First and the Greens. I don't think any poll showed Labour and Greens alone winning enough.

I recall a poll that showed Labour/Greens/Māori with enough.

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Wow, that's a landslide ...

It isn't a landslide, the government has only just about squeaked re-election. And they've done so in a way that, how shall we say, stores up trouble for next time round...

and even then, no one even knows if WINston will even want to form a coalition with the Nationals yet.
Winston literally is in total control of the future of the country, with his position of kingmaker.

I like the guy. I hope he chooses the Labour-Greens over National-Act.

Well, ACT is pretty much out of the coalition. Things will look a bit worse for National once the special votes come in. If they drop 2 seats, that's a serious problem for National.

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National's negotiating team included Finance Minister Steven Joyce-who Winston is reported to hate, while Labour brought former Deputy PM Michael Cullen onto their negotiating team, Cullen having worked with Winston in government from 2005-2008.

Is National even trying?

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56 Nat
46 Lab
9 NZF
8 Green
1 ACT

http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2017/

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We still have to wait till the 12th until we know who WINston will go with.


Please let it be Labour...

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My gut feeling right now is that WINston will go with Labour.

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My gut feeling right now is that WINston will go with Labour.

I think so too, though it's 50-50(though I'd be fine if you said it was 60-40 either way).

60-40 sounds about right. I'm definitely not super confident, but enough to pick a side at least.