Interesting results from your state (user search)
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  2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: The Dowager Mod, Dereich)
  Interesting results from your state (search mode)
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Author Topic: Interesting results from your state  (Read 6216 times)
Pouring Rain and Blairing Music
Fubart Solman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,838
United States


« on: November 24, 2016, 12:59:18 PM »

Missouri's write in situation is quite odd. Write in reporting has been quite poor overall this year. Most CA counties haven't broken down their results yet; some haven't even reported any write ins at all.

Supposedly Wyoming could count McMullin's results, but he might not have paid the fee. Pity. I would've liked to have seen his results in the more heavily Mormon parts (it would also give a better idea of Bernie write ins).

NH and VT did report all of their write ins; hopefully Atlas will be updated to show Bernie's results broken off from the rest of the write ins (I'd like to see some of the former Republican contestants as well; Kasich got 0.2% in VT, for example).

San Benito used to be a bellwether county for California, but Hillary only won it by 21, versus 29 for statewide. Alpine, Mono, and Orange have a long history of voting together for the Republican, and this year they voted together for the Democrat. Most California counties swung Democrat, but the northeastern part of the state swung Republican. Back when California was much less Democratic 50 years ago, Lassen was a reasonably Democratic county, but Trump broke 70% there.

Mono and Alpine haven't gone Republican in a presidential election since 2000.

Lassen (and to a lesser extent, Plumas) is quite interesting. Jerry Brown won both in 1974 and 1978. Gerald Ford lost them in 1976 despite carrying the state. Even as recently as 1998, Gray Davis (D) got 45% and kept Dan Lungren (R) under 50% in the 1998 gubernatorial race.
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Pouring Rain and Blairing Music
Fubart Solman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,838
United States


« Reply #1 on: November 28, 2016, 01:21:37 AM »

San Benito used to be a bellwether county for California, but Hillary only won it by 21, versus 29 for statewide. Alpine, Mono, and Orange have a long history of voting together for the Republican, and this year they voted together for the Democrat. Most California counties swung Democrat, but the northeastern part of the state swung Republican. Back when California was much less Democratic 50 years ago, Lassen was a reasonably Democratic county, but Trump broke 70% there.

San Benito has basically stayed the same while the state as a whole has moved to the left. That's been happening for a few years now. Santa Barbara looks like the bellwether now in a number of cases, but the it looks like the true bellwether of California might now be Solano County. It's bad news if the bellwether is Santa Barbara. It's deadly for the Republican Party if the bellwether is now in the Bay Area.

If you look at the map right now, assuming Democrats take SD-29, it looks like a pretty durable supermajority that will last through the midterm (when Republicans did better than expected in 2014). Democrats could expand the majority to a 30-10 if everything went well, not to mention perhaps expanding the supermajority in the Assembly as well. If Democrats get a supermajority in the Senate now, there's no way they'll lose it in two years. It'd be a matter of keeping the Assembly.

I remember that in 2012, Nate Silver sugeested that Santa Barbara was the bellweather for CA. I disagreed at the time (I would've said San Benito), but it appears that he's right (for now).
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