Good breakdown jimrtex. The only thing that I would add is that CA is pouring in millions to assist the census 'discover' residents. The South Valley has a lot of hard-to-reach migratory groups, and CA is pouring in money to ensure every resident is counted, especially those groups missed in 2010. The margin of error around projections therefore is larger here and in other border states, so it's one thing working in the states favor. In contrast, TX has a lot of hard-to-reach groups as well, but the state is putting aside 0$ to assist in contacting their residents (for political reasons of course) so the MOE around those projections is less in their favor.
Estimates of undercount(PDF)
The undercount for California in 2020 is estimated to be 0.60%, while California is estimated to be short by 0.5% of holding on to its 53rd seat.
There might be areas where the undercount was higher, but also lower such as in Marin. And is the mass outreach effective?
Not OP, but I’m assuming Oryx means the south part of the Central Valley/San Joaquin Valley, which is a big farming area full of migrants.
