GOP 2022 Prospects Had Trump Been Convicted in the Senate?

[RFayette 🇻🇦]

It seems that in general people agree that the GOP has decent-to-great prospects in the 2022 midterms right now, though obviously a lot can happen between now and next November.  One counterfactual I wonder about is:  how would the GOP be doing had Trump been convicted in the Senate?  This seems like it very well could have happened had McConnell supported his conviction.

I am conflicted on this:  on one hand, we see that Trump's continuing presence probably hurt the GOP in the California recall.  On the other hand, the GOP convicting Trump could lead to severely depressed Republican turnout.  In my view, this latter factor would predominate and the GOP would have worse prospects in 2022 than we see right now.  (That being said, I think a stronger case can be made that the GOP would have better 2024 prospects had Trump been convicted and thus ineligible to run.  But 2022 is closer and I think a clearer question to ask for hypothetical at this point.)