^I don't think a political party that is strongly left-wing on economic issues could win 80% of college grads, even with a college education having not as strong of a connection with income as it did in the past. Do you think the economic left flank of the Democratic Party will be significantly weakened?
If the economy generally goes on meeting most people's needs most of the time into the 2030's-40's without a major crash? Yes. Also, I think it will be politically impossible to raise taxes on people making <$200K for the foreseeable future unless there is an economic depression. And some of the major economic left proposals out there right now, like paid family leave, are actually quite popular with high income professionals. I think you would need something like 50% federal income tax over $75K single/$125K married (Scandinavia basically has this today) to really push college grads back toward Republicans. Do you think that will eventually happen here?
I am not saying that will eventually happen here, just that such a scenario could be seen as plausible by voters. Especially if Democrats do come in power and enact things like UHC and paid family leave, the next step for those on the left edge of the party would be for tax rates approaching that level. If those ideas are seen as within the universe of possibilities of electing Democrats, I think that would cause a rightward shift among those with higher incomes.
