LA-JMC: Trump 52 Clinton 36

[RFayette]

Cruz did relatively well in Louisiana, so this isn't a bad number for Trump.  The goal for Trump is to keep his loss at 4-6 points, and this is certainly within that benchmark.

[RFayette]

Obama lost the state by 17 points in 2012, so this is about on par with that.

Yes, and he did better there in 2012 than in 2008, suggesting it was all about black turnout.  I would be shocked if Louisiana didn't trend R in PVI this year.  This is consistent with a loss between Romney and McCain levels nationally for Trump, but I don't think it's consistent with a 13 point loss.

Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virginia should all trend R this year.  I'd think Missouri would too, but some polling has me less confident here.  Appalachian/Upland/Gulf Coast whites are just up Trump's alley.

[RFayette]

Trump favorability: 47/43 (63/26 among Whites)
Clinton's favorability: 35/59 (14/80 among Whites)

Interesting, I had expected LA to be quite close....

Oh man, deep south whites love Trump. He speaks their language. Don't know why so many people are surprised, just because her husband won it by double digits in '96?

Clinton '96 ran on being a tough-on-crime, deficit-lowering, pro-death penalty centrist Dem who was a foe of the special interests.  Why should it be a huge surprise many of those Southerners are now for Trump?