De Blasio vs. Bush

[RFayette 🇻🇦]

De Blasio is NOT a mainstream Democrat. He's closer to a more belligerent, less experienced Sanders.

This.  De Blasio would do very poorly among police, which is definitely a potent disadvantage.  He'd also alienate mainstream moderate Dems....I could see folks like Manchin refusing to endorse DeBlasio.

[RFayette 🇻🇦]

De Blasio is NOT a mainstream Democrat. He's closer to a more belligerent, less experienced Sanders.

This.  De Blasio would do very poorly among police, which is definitely a potent disadvantage.

there are about 765k deputized state and local officers in the USA.  the popular vote totaled 130m last time around.

...and I imagine this sub-group votes 3:2 or 2:1 Republican to begin with.  it's disproportionately male and white, to say nothing else.

My uncle is a strong Democrat and a policeman from California; he hates Bill DeBlasio, Chuy Garcia, Al Sharpton, etc.  I'm sure there are a good chunk of people like that. 

[RFayette 🇻🇦]

yes, there probably are at least tens of thousands of people like that.  so?

OK, here's my point:
1. A more extreme ideological candidate will hurt the Dems no matter what.
2. A Fraternal Order of Police endorsement can shift margins in a close race.
3. Many people with families/relatives in law enforcement will be indirectly swayed by this.

Look, my point is that these small factors can be enough to tip a close race in crucial swing states.  That's all.  I'm not saying De Blasio would get only 125 EVs or something, just that he would lose winnable states in part due to his loss of police support.

[RFayette 🇻🇦]

he's not "ideologically extreme".  he played the part of the progressive to win the Dem primary, because Dem primary voters, especially in major cities, support major changes to the status quo and he proved able to say what they wanted to hear (but largely unable to do what they wanted him to do).

for otherwise-Democratic law enforcement personnel to make any kind of difference anywhere, the margin would have to be razor-thin to begin with, such that a dozen other factors could be pointed to as well.

I said "more extreme."  De Blasio is more liberal than Clinton and most other Dems.  It's the moderate Dems in the suburbs that carry the election; the Dem primary voters are the base.  If you're bleeding support in places like NoVA, S. Florida burbs, the Research Triangle, etc., then you're in for a bad election.