What would have to happen for a Republican nominee to get to 48 or more in California?
Mathematically speaking..winning 63% or more of the white vote. Romney won 53% of the white vote in CA in 2012. Whites while they make up 39% of the population make up over 65% of the ballots cast.
It would require getting 80% in Orange County, 70% in San Diego County 60% in Ventura, probably doing close to 50% in LA county to offset the Bay Area which in my view is quite inelastic. Strong turn out in Kern, Placier and Fresno County.
Or more improbable getting 45% or more of the hispanic vote and breaking 50% among Asians. Blacks are only 6% of CA population but probably 10% of the votes cast.
