What makes states trend right?

[bobloblaw]

Notice how some states (California) trend left and stay like that. What will take a Democratic state trend Republican?

Low immigration, few tech jobs and no large government employment.

This is why GA is moving much more slowly than NC or VA. Ther isnt a large pool of liberal whites in GA. No large federal employment, no tech sector and no mass immigration like NOVA

[bobloblaw]

Currently none while Virginia, Georgia and Arizona trend more toward the Democratic party.

Not true, Pennsylvania has seen a rightward trend over the past 20 years, as has Minnesota and Iowa (maybe even Wisconsin). Before people flip out, the fact is Pennsylvania and Minnesota used to be much more Democratic than the national average than they are now. They still lean Democratic but much less so than 20 or 30 years ago.

Also, Arizona is not trending Democratic and Georgia is only slightly.

Arizona and Georgia are subject to move away from having their 10-point [est.] Republican advantages in this realigning period, for the Democrats winning the majority of presidential elections, and the voting electorates of Arizona and Georgia going through their changes as well. Texas is also moving in that direction.

Pennsylvania and Minnesota are not moving toward the Republicans. What trips people up into thinking so is that they look at only the margins relative national numbers. But, they still vary them. In one election, they can look like two or three points more Democratic. In another election, they can look five or six points more Democratic.

Taking Pennsylvania as an example with another point: I posted demographic numbers from the 2004, 2008, and 2012 results in Pennsylvania. The Republicans are relying on not just 90 percent but more closer to 95 percent of their popular vote, in the state, coming from white voters. And the white voters in that state are more Democratic than the nation on average.

It would be good to come across some honest posts regarding the direction coming presidential elections are taking. Your assertion is a fantasy of the Republican Party—in their current form—moving the electorate toward them…and, yet, I'm not seeing too many bets being placed on the 2016 presidential hopefuls from that party; how they would be further increase support from whites nationwide (they depend on their nationwide percentages consisting 90 percent of that from whites!); shifting women (whom they haven't carried nationwide since 1988 with George Bush) to embrace their party and ideas; and there are minorities (the Hispanic vote in Pennsylvania, in 2012, was well above the national result).

The Republican Party of today is the essentially the same as the Democratic Party was during the realigning elections under Abraham Lincoln (1860) and William McKinley (1896)—they're confined to trying to win the presidency by a very narrow path that relies on for its base the Old Confederacy. Without a landslide election, to the tune of 80 percent of states (40 of today's 50 states) getting carried, the Republicans aren't going to see Pennsylvania and/or Minnesota shift to them.

Texas isnt moving towards the Dems.

In 2004 TX was R+10.5
In 2012 TX was R+10

Take into account any Favorite Son Effect in 2004 and TX hasnt changed at all.