Canadian federal election, 2016 (campaign thread)

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Au Canada
Canadian federal election • 2016

Background: The rules for the general election phase are adapted from the last Mock Parliament game, written and moderated by the bard of Atlas Election Games himself, Lumine Von Reuental. His work has been a model and inspiration for this game from the very beginning, and full credit goes to him for his conceiving and developing this format last summer.

Turns: The election will play out over five turns; in-game, we will begin on January 2 and conclude on February 8, 2016 (election day). Each turn will last seventy-two (72) hours, covering one week of the campaign.

Campaigning: For simplicity's sake, your characters will campaign in the ten provinces and three territories of modern Canada (see the map above). As in Lumine's game, "You're free to make your own schedules and speeches, with normal campaigning being free. Each party will be assigned CAMPAIGN POINTS (CP) based on organization, funding and momentum, points which you can use to buy internal polls, canvassers/volunteers (to boost your campaign), endorsements (newspapers/organizations/celebrities) and advertising."

Debates: Party leaders will have opportunity to participate in two debates, scheduled for the second and fourth turns. Whether you attend these debates is up to you: depending on the context and the strength of your performance, your presence may be either a help or a hindrance to your campaign. The winner of each debate will receive a bonus of campaign points in the succeeding round.

Platform: Before the end of Turn One, each party must publish a national platform. For your ease and mine, you will be required to submit a list of your five (5) main pledges—no more and no less—that will form the core of your message on the campaign trail. Platforms "will have a relevant impact, and may be used by other players to attack you."

Polls: Aggregate polling results will be published at the start of each turn. These will give you an idea of how your message is resonating with the voters; yet as in real-life, the numbers may not be 100% accurate.

Electoral system: Canadian elections occur in single-member ridings using first-past-the-post voting. This, of course, means that third parties can act as spoilers in close ridings, while broad national support will not necessarily translate to an equitable share of seats in parliament.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Turn One: Winter 2015
January 2 – 9, 2016

Barton: It was less than three months ago that the last votes were tallied and a cohort of new MPs set out for Ottawa; yet in just five weeks, Canadians will head to the polls for the second time in under a year to elect the 338 members of the 43rd House of Commons. The cause: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who shocked allies and rivals alike by dissolving parliament and calling a snap election in hopes of replacing the divided parliament elected by the voters in October with a majority-Liberal chamber that will back his government's proposed economic and social reforms.

Trudeau has been sharply criticized for what the opposition describes as a brazen power grab, though his party remains the clear front-runner heading into the election:

Polling

Liberal		45%
Conservative		29%
NDP		18%
BQ		5%
Green		3%

As we see, the prime minister's party remains broadly popular with the public thanks to the lingering effects of his November honeymoon; whether that popularity will survive the rigors of a national campaign remains to be seen. With the Conservatives and NDP itching to see the Liberals stumble and Trudeau determined to secure a majority for his government, this is certain to be a campaign for the history books.

A Note from the GM

Turn: This turn will last for seventy-two (72) hours, until the end of the day on February 16 (Friday).

Platforms: Each party must submit their national platform (see above post, "Platforms") by the end of this turn; I will open a separate thread for this purpose.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

- January 9, 2016 -
Breaking: Ashton Replaces Singh As NDP Leader

Following the formal resignation of interim leader Jagmeet Singh, MP for Churchill—Keewatinook Aski Nikki Ashton has assumed the permanent leadership of the NDP, even as her party seeks to rally its members in advance of the impending snap election. Having secured her post by appealing to a wave of righteous populism sweeping the party's left wing, Ashton has promised to revive the NDP as a legitimate leftist alternative to the Liberals; whether the next thirty-five days will be sufficient time to achieve her aims, is anyone's guess.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Endorsements for Turn One

NDP: Clara Hughes, Olympian medalist and advocate for mental health (-30 CP)

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Turn Two: Of Debates and Leadership
January 10–17, 2016

Barton: Eight days into the federal campaign, and already the race has begun to tighten: besieged by adversaries on the right and left hoping to tear down the fledgling Liberal plurality, Justin Trudeau's party has slipped some in the polls since the start of the campaign but remains the favorite to form a government in the next parliament, with more than two fifths of the voters behind them. Charges that Trudeau placed party before country in calling a snap election have bruised the prime minister's popularity and undercut his calls for transparency and nonpartisanship, while energizing those on the left who would replace him as the standard bearers for political reform. Still, the Liberals are polling six points better than their 2015 performance, and continue to lead Andrew Scheer's Conservative Party by a hefty margin.

Polling

Liberal		41%
Conservative		30%
NDP		19%
BQ		6%
Green		4%

By our poll, Trudeau's Liberals currently hold a lead of 12% over the Conservatives, 41 to 29, while the NDP and Greens slightly increase their national totals. Yet the national numbers don't tell the whole story: while the Conservatives have barely moved in the national preference poll over the last week, they stand to gain some seats in the western provinces, where the left-wing vote is increasingly split between the Liberals, NDP, and Greens. It also does not account for the peculiar situation in Quebec, from whence the Conservatives have largely withdrawn, with the exception of the dozen or so ridings where they have incumbent MPs. As such, while the Conservative vote increased slightly in British Columbia and the Atlantic provinces, it catered in Quebec, resulting in a negligible increase in their national vote.

Efforts by the three largest parties to increase their margin in Ontario largely cancelled each-other out, with little change in the division of the vote—a state of the affairs that is effectively a victory for the Liberals, who carried the province by a wide margin last year. Also notable is the small surge by Bloc Québécois, who have benefited from the withdrawal of the Conservatives from their ridings and now stand a chance of polling second in the francophone province.

No poll is completely accurate, but these figures would seem to indicate that the relentless opposition attacks on the prime minister have taken their toll; whether and how he will respond is likely to decide the course of this campaign

A Note from the GM

Turn: This turn will last for seventy-two (72) hours, until the end of the day on February 22 (Thurday). If you are in need of an extension, you must request such before that time.

Campaign points: To clarify, as there were some questions about this last turn, campaign points are cumulative and replenish gradually. Parties that spent all or most of their budget last turn thus have less to start out with than those who spent only some of their CPs. The rate at which CPs increase is directly related to your party's performance in the polls, so there is a case for spending now to reap the rewards later—provided you spend wisely.

Debate: The first of our two leadership debates will take place this turn, in a separate thread which I will prepare for that purpose. Participation in the debates is optional: your presence and performance may either help or hurt your campaign, depending on context. The winner of this debate will receive a bonus of CPs.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Turn Three: Stepped In So Far
January 18–24, 2016

Barton: As we begin the third leg of the federal snap election campaign we end what has been a strong week for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who has regained a prohibitive lead in the polls after a rocky first week on the stump. The prime minister's party has benefitted from the absence of Opposition Leader Andrew Scheer from the campaign trail and is beginning to reap the benefits of a veritable blitz of ads and canvassing across the eastern half of the country that have restored the Liberals to a lead of twenty points in the national polling average.

Polling

Liberal		46%
Conservative		26%
NDP		19%
BQ		6%
Green		3%

As encouraging as these numbers may be for the Liberals, some in the field are saying that the real winners of the last seven days' are the parties at the bottom of the stack: Rheal Fortin's Bloc Québecois and Elizabeth May's Green Party. While Fortin made a widely praised (if sparsely watched) performance in the first leaders' debate, an event the three main parties skipped, and is now arguably the man to beat in Quebec, May has been quietly building support for her party's candidates with an eye to perhaps tripling the number of Green MPs in the next parliament.

And while Trudeau is ahead at the moment, questions continue to swirl about his commitment to the new era of government he promised Canadians just three months ago. His absence from the leaders' debate has put a dent in his credibility (though he was spared a serious embarrassment by the absence of the other major party leaders), and surveys show the public is still distrustful of his motives in calling a snap election. His strategy of staying on message, putting boots on the ground, and pounding the opposition on the airwaves and the canvassing runs appears to be working, and voters for the moment seem willing to overlook his transgressions; whether any leader will take advantage of the chinks in his armor remains an open question.

A Note from the GM

Turn: This turn will last for seventy-two (72) hours, until the end of the day on February 28 (Wednesday).

Deadlines: Please be sure you are keeping track of upcoming deadlines and keeping me informed if you will be submitting your schedule late. I'm usually willing to grant extensions if you need an extra day or two to complete your schedule, but I can't do that unless I hear from you. I'm always willing to answer questions if you're uncertain about when something is due or what is expected for a particular turn.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Turn Four: The Beginning of the End
January 25–31, 2016

Barton: We are now just two weeks from knowing the result of this extraordinary campaign, and as the candidates and party leaders begin their fourth week on the stump, the race has narrowed considerably from where things stood even last month. With the return of the Conservatives to the campaign trail, the Liberals and Justin Trudeau have lost most of their gains from their second-week surge and are now once more hovering above forty percent.

Polling

Liberal		42%
Conservative		27%
NDP		22%
BQ		6%
Green		3%

The results of our survey give the Liberals a lead of fifteen points over Andrew Scheer's Conservative Party, who come in second with slightly less than thirty percent of the national vote as they have throughout this campaign. While the Liberals have lost ground in the last week, most of those gains have gone, not to the Conservatives, but to the NDP, who are up three points; Bloc Québecois saw small gains, while the Greens fell slightly, neither shift being sufficient to register in the national average.

If these are the results on election night, it seems likely Justin Trudeau will be returned to office as prime minister of a new majority government—but the devil is in the details. The Liberal campaign has been successful in winning over skeptical voters in Ontario and the West who voted for other parties in 2015, and Mr. Trudeau has cut into the Conservative margins there. In Quebec, the story is different, however: after a disappointing showing three months ago, Rheal Fortin has led his party back to second place in the polls and stands a good chance of holding the Liberals under 40% in that province with a combination of liberal economic policies and attacks on Mr. Trudeau's credibility as a leader. Meanwhile, a strong effort by Nikki Ashton has helped the NDP to make large strides, especially in Quebec, but also in Ontario and British Columbia. For now, Mr. Trudeau remains the heavy favorite to be the next prime minister, but if present trends continue the math could become very messy for his quest to win a Liberal majority in Ottawa.

The House of Commons may be chosen from 338 local ridings, but this is still very much a national election, and the personalities of the party leaders continue to have a significant impact on the state of the race. For his part, Mr. Trudeau has been noted for his energetic presence on the stump, though he has sometimes been described as lackluster, and voters appear to be responding to what has thus far been a notably positive campaign. Mr. Scheer has likewise made a strong impression with voters, though many question his portrayal of himself as the face of change in Canada when his party so recently held the reigns of power.

One thing is certain: the next fourteen days are slated to be among the most interesting weeks in the modern history of Canadian politics.

A Note from the GM

Turn: This turn will last for seventy-two (72) hours, until the end of the day on March 3 (Saturday).

Debate: The second and final leadership debate will take place this turn. Participation in the debates is optional; however, your performance is sure to be at the front of voters' minds as they cast their ballots on election day, and you absent yourself at your own risk. The winner of the debate will receive a bonus of campaign points for the final round.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

I do not grade based on player commentary. That said, Scheer's decision to embrace his socially conservative positions is a bold one and will impact the race.

(If people want a thread specifically for OOC commentary, might I suggest the sign-up thread?)

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Turn Five: Once More Into the Breech
February 1–7, 2016

Barton: The end is nearly upon us: over the next seven days, the parties will make their closing arguments to the voters as this extraordinary election campaign draws to a close. Our most recent round of polls indicates that the race has tightened considerably, with the Liberals a full ten points below where they stood at the end of last year when Justin Trudeau called this election to expand his majority, though some are now saying that the Liberals may yet pull off a landslide victory on February 8.

Polling

Liberal		39%
Conservative		30%
NDP		22%
BQ		7%
Green		2%

There you have it: by our count, Justin Trudeau leading the race for prime minister by nine points—a healthy margin by any standard, though considerably below where he stood even a month ago. It is worth noting, however, that this poll may well be inaccurate; our sources in the field indicate that a strong Liberal ground campaign puts them decidedly on the advantage for election day, and some pundits maintain the possibility that Trudeau could manage as many as 200 seats when all is said and done. Likewise important to note that this poll was taken before Andrew Scheer's now-infamous "social conservative" gaffe—in which the Conservative leader seemed to endorse his portrayal in Liberal attack ads by calling himself the "most socially conservative candidate running"—which is all but certain to become a point of key contention on the campaign trail.

Elsewhere, the story of the week is a tale of competing narratives. An aggressive counterattack in Quebec led personally by Justin Trudeau has solidified the Liberals' position in the province but failed to stem completely the rise of Bloc Québecois; NDP losses in the Atlantic provinces were offset by surging numbers in the West; the Conservatives made inroads in the Toronto area, though the Liberals remain far ahead in the rest of Ontario; and paradoxically, Andrew Scheer, whose party ended nearly a decade in government only three months ago, continues to hammer away at his message of change and reform—a message that may well regain some of the ground lost by Stephen Harper and produce yet another hung parliament in Ottawa, if Nikki Ashton doesn't beat him to the punch.

It's going to be an exciting week in Canadian politics, and we at the CBC will be here for every minute of it.

A Note from the GM

Turn: This turn will last for seventy-two (72) hours, until the end of the day on March 9 (Friday). Then, it's election night!

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Globe and Mail Endorses Scheer, Conservatives

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[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Endorsements for Turn Five

Conservative

John Tory
Mayor of Toronto

NDP

Gregor Robertson
Mayor of Vancouver

Bloc Québecois

Le Devoir
Newspaper

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Election Night
February 8, 2016

Mansbridge: . . .It is the end of an extraordinary campaign, and one that is certain to change the face of Canadian politics, at least for the next four years, if not many more to come. Justin Trudeau called this election thirty-nine days ago to expand his mandate after an inconclusive contest in 2015; tonight, we will see whether he has succeeded, or whether Andrew Scheer's Conservatives and Niki Ashton's NDP have kept him to a plurality in the House of Commons. Tonight is also the first test for the new leadership of Bloc Québecois, who are aiming to take second place tonight in Quebec after a disappointing performance three months ago.

After five weeks of anxious anticipation, we can now report the first result of the 2016 federal election.

Newfoundland and Labrador

Liberal		52%		7
NDP		38%		0
Conservative		10%		0
Green		0%		0

Mansbridge: A curious result, and not the least because of the split between the popular vote and the outcome in the ridings. Of course, the Liberals were always favored to carry the Atlantic provinces, but pay close attention to the margin: 52% for the Liberals, down eight points from the last election; the NDP at 38%, up thirteen; Conservatives at 10%, no change. A very good result for the NDP and Nikki Ashton if it's reflected across the nation, but very bleak for the opposition otherwise: not one of those seven seats flipped from the Liberals to NDP or the Conservatives. As we say, not unexpected, but something of a disappointment for the Conservatives; Andrew Scheer of course made a bold play for the votes of the Atlantic provinces early in the campaign, and it appears so far he has come up none the better for it.

In short, there's something for everyone to take heart in from these results: the Liberals so far hold all their seats in spite of an aggressive push by the Conservatives and NDP, while the opposition can take heart that the votes, at least, seem to indicate the possibility of future gains, if these trends are repeated around the country.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Mansbridge: We are now receiving results from the rest of Atlantic Canada.

New Brunswick

Liberal		52%		10
NDP		28%		0
Conservative		17%		0
Green		3%		0

Nova Scotia

Liberal		54%		9
NDP		27%		2
Conservative		15%		0
Green		3%		0

Prince Edward Island

Liberal		50%		4
NDP		33%		0
Conservative		17%		0
Green		0%		0

Mansbridge: An interesting set of results, which seems to confirm the trend we saw earlier in Newfoundland: the Liberals down slightly from their support in 2015, but so far without suffering major losses in terms of seats; NDP making a strong showing in the popular vote but loosing out in the ridings; and the Conservatives polling essentially as they did three months ago, with little to show for Andrew Scheer's efforts to make inroads in the region.

Barton: It's difficult to say at this point what these results mean as far as what to expect from the rest of the country. On the one hand, you see the Liberals performing notably worse than they did in 2015—down eight points in Newfoundland, down ten in Nova Scotia, down three in Prince Edward Island. If that is reflected across the country, it could be the beginning of a bad night for Justin Trudeau. The other way to look at this, is that the Liberals did not campaign aggressively in the Atlantic ridings, were confident that they would be the leading party here, and have in fact carried all the ridings declared so far but two. It will be interesting to see, once we begin to receive returns from Quebec and Ontario, whether this trend is reflected in the provinces that were fiercely contested by the Liberals, or whether there is yet cause to hope for a Liberal majority.

Mansbridge: Interesting to note that the closest seat to be declared thus far, Halifax, in the province of Nova Scotia, has been won by the NDP, 47% to 44% over the Liberals. And now, I believe we are receiving another result . . .

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Mansbridge: News has just come in that all seventy-eight ridings in Quebec have reported, and the result, simply put, is staggering.

Quebec

Liberal		38%		38
Bloc Québecois		30%		25
NDP		25%		8
Conservative		6%		7
Green		1%		0

Mansbridge: We said earlier that this could either shape up to be a good night or a very bad night for Justin Trudeau: the results from Atlantic Canada were inconclusive on that point; we are now receiving the beginnings of an answer in Quebec. Look at those numbers: the Liberals actually up seven points from their result in 2015, NDP down four, the Conservatives down eleven—though of course, there are other factors at play there. And the biggest gains by far go to Bloc Québecois, who manage to improve on their 2015 showing by more than ten percent, for a net profit of fifteen seats.

Truly a shocking result, and a massive blow to those hoping to topple Justin Trudeau from the prime minister's seat.

Barton: If anything, the results in the ridings are even more fascinating: Bloc Québecois gains fifteen seats, most of them from the NDP, but also a healthy count taken from the Liberals. The difference being that the Liberals manage to make up those losses with seats gained from the Conservatives, while NDP is left with very little to show for their near-quarter of the popular vote.

Take a look at some of the ridings that have changed hands. Laurier–Saint Marie, Gilles Duceppe's seat—was lost to the NDP in 2015, tonight reclaimed by the Bloc; Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, Jonquiere, Louis-Hebert, Québec, Trois–Rivières, Drummond, Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot, Beloeil–Chambly, Longueuil–Saint Hubert, Montarville, Salaberry–Suroît, Laurentides–Labelle, Rivière-des-Mille-Îles, Thérèse–De Blainville, all gains for Bloc Québecois. In a bright spot for NDP, Tom Mulcair manages to hold his seat thanks to the withdrawal of the Bloc candidate in that riding; but of course, the race that has everyone's attention is for the prime minister's own seat in Papineau.

Papineau

Justin Trudeau		54%
Maxime Claveau		43%

Mansbridge: And there you have it: Justin Trudeau is reelected to the House of Commons, 54 to 43 over Maxime Claveau of Bloc Québecois. A disappointing result for the opposition, to be sure—you'll recall NDP withdrew from this seat in the final weeks of the campaign, hoping Bloc would be able to topple Trudeau in a head-to-head race. That, it seems, has not transpired; Trudeau reelected by an increased margin over his 2015 result, up eight points since the last election.

Barton: But I want to talk about the Conservative margin for a moment. You'll recall earlier we mentioned the Conservatives have dropped eleven points from their result in 2015; in fact, that figure is somewhat misleading. Hoping to give Bloc Québecois a clear shot at Trudeau, the Conservatives did not run candidates in most of the seventy-eight Quebecois ridings, which accounts for most of that drop in the provincial vote we noted. In the twelve ridings where they had incumbent MPs running for reelection, their vote is about what it was in 2015; though they still loose five seats due to Liberal gains in the province.

Mansbridge: Fascinating; and now, I believe, we are receiving returns from Ontario. . .

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Mansbridge: The count has just finished in the province of Ontario; one-hundred twenty-one ridings up for grabs, and here are the results.

Ontario

Liberal		49%		94
Conservative		31%		19
NDP		19%		8
Green		1%		0

Mansbridge: Perhaps the most shocking return of the night, and an appalling result for the opposition: the Liberals win 94 of the 121 ridings, with an overall swing of nine points in the popular vote. Conservatives in second place with 31%, down five; NDP in third with 19%, down two; the Greens take up the rear, 1% of the vote, down two points from 2015.

And with that, it's very difficult to conclude that we are looking at anything other than a Liberal government of some kind.

Barton: We always knew if the Conservatives were going to stop Trudeau and the Liberals from winning a majority, they were going to have to do well in Ontario. In the last week, you saw both Niki Ashton and Andrew Scheer here in the province fighting for votes—and it hasn't worked. Instead, a massacre: the Conservatives loose almost half their seats from 2015, down from just over thirty to now under twenty. NDP manage to mostly hold their own in the ridings where they are the incumbent, but nothing like the gains some in the party had hoped for.

Worth noting that the first-past-the-post system has worked to the advantage of the Liberals here: in riding after riding, you see Liberal candidates edging out Conservative incumbents by narrow pluralities—44% in Milton, 43% in Huron–Bruce, 42% in Perth–Wellington. The Conservative member for Niagara Falls looses his seat by less than half a percent, the Liberal challenger there winning with just above 38% of the overall vote. Add them all together, and the Liberals carry more than three quarters of the ridings in Ontario with just under half the vote.

Mansbridge: We'll get to the 'why' of that in a moment, but first, take a look at the result from the riding of Simcoe–Grey.

Simcoe–Grey

Kellie Leitch		42%
Mike MacEachern		42%
David Matthews		12%
JoAnne Fleming		2%

The Conservatives have held this seat since 2004; they carry it again tonight, but the margin is disquieting: by two votes—yes, two—incumbent member Kellie Leitch is returned over Liberal challenger Mike MacEachern in what is likely to be the narrowest result of the night so far.

But to your earlier point: this is unquestionably a very disappointing result for the Conservatives. Clearly the voting system has played as part in that, but there's something else going on here to.

Barton: I'm sure there will be no shortage of analysis of just what these results mean over the next several weeks, but in the immediate aftermath, there are three things that come to mind. First, the Liberals absolutely poured their hearts out in Ontario: from the very beginning this province was the center of their campaign, and they've flooded the airwaves and just about ground the sidewalks to dust canvassing, running ads, doing everything they could to ensure a good result. The first week of the campaign, when Andrew Scheer was campaigning across the Atlantic trying to win converts in New Brunswick and Newfoundland, Justin Trudeau was knocking on doors in Ontario.  In the last few weeks, you saw the Conservatives and NDP attempt a midnight raid to drum up support in Toronto and Upper Canada, but it just wasn't enough to overcome the Liberal ground game. From the moment this election was announced, our Liberal contacts have been telling us that Ontario was going to hand them their majority; it appears they may well have been right.

Second, Andrew Scheer's message failed to convince voters that his party deserves to be returned to government just three months after Stephen Harper was turned out of office. Maybe you can chalk that up to the Conservative platform—all that talk about Scheer not having a clear position on the economy—or to the infamous "social conservative" gaffe, but more than anything I think it was just to soon for the Conservatives to make the sort of comeback they were hoping for. Over and over again, we heard Andrew Scheer say that he "wasn't Stephen Harper," but fairly or not the voters seem to be punishing him for his predecessor's unpopularity.

Third, by far the most unpopular thing in this election was instability. This is what the Liberals were betting on: some voters might have liked Andrew Scheer more than they liked Justin Trudeau, but at the end of the day that desire for stability and certainty won out. Again, there are sure to be a wide variety of interpretations of exactly what happened tonight, but I think a lot of what we'll be hearing is that a vote for Andrew Scheer was seen as a vote for a hung parliament, and to most voters that simply wasn't worth it.

Mansbridge: Whatever the reason, the Liberals have now won 162 of the 338 ridings up for election tonight—just eight short of the 170 seats they need to form a majority in the House of Commons. In a moment, we'll hear from Western Canada and see if there are any bright spots for the Conservatives and NDP in what has so far been a disappointing night for the main opposition parties.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Mansbridge: While we await the result of the election in the Western provinces, let's turn to the Northwest, where the Liberals are defending three seats they won in 2015.

Northwest Territories

NDP		44%		1
Liberal		31%		0
Conservative		25%		0

Nunavut

Liberal		46%		1
NDP		28%		0
Conservative		26%		0

Yukon Territory

Liberal		50%		1
Conservative		26%		0
NDP		24%		0

Mansbridge: Nothing groundbreaking here, with only three seats at stake: the Liberals hold on to Nunavut and Yukon by convincing margins, while in the Northwest Territories Dennis Bevington of NDP regains the seat he lost to the Liberals three months ago. An encouraging sign for NDP, perhaps, who need a strong showing in the West to avoid massive losses in the next parliament.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Mansbridge: We are just now getting results from the province of Manitoba. Let's take a look.

Manitoba

Liberal		44%		7
Conservative		29%		5
NDP		24%		2
Green		2%		0

Mansbridge: The Liberals add seven seats to their column, winning just over half the ridings in what is likely to be their best result in Western Canada. We note a reasonable swing toward Mr. Trudeau's party—the Liberals up four, Conservatives down nine, NDP up five—but nothing approaching the massive gains we have seen earlier this evening in Ontario and, to a lesser extent, Quebec.

Barton: We've known from the start of the campaign that the Liberals were going to have their weakest result in the Western provinces, and this seems to be the first indication that those predictions were correct. Certainly this is a result that Andrew Scheer would have welcomed had it come from Newfoundland; at this point in the evening, it comes too little, too late.

Mansbridge: And with that, CBC can now make the following projection.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Mansbridge: . . . And I am told the count has just concluded in the provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Alberta

Conservative		60%		29
Liberal		25%		4
NDP		14%		1
Green		1%		0

Saskatchewan

Conservative		54%		11
NDP		29%		2
Liberal		15%		1
Green		2%		0

Mansbridge: There it is, the silver lining in what has otherwise been an appalling night for the Conservatives. What Andrew Scheer could not do in the rest of the country, he has done in his home province of Saskatchewan, where the Conservatives come within a hair's breadth of a clean sweep: 11 out of 14 ridings declare for the Conservative Party, with 54% of the overall popular vote, actually up four points from 2015. The picture is equally as bright in Alberta: 60% of the vote and 29 of 34 seats declare for the Conservatives, roughly what they got three months ago as well.

And of course included in those Saskatchewan riding's is Scheer's own Regina–Qu'Appelle, where he manages reelection by a sizable majority.

Regina–Qu'Appelle

Andrew Scheer		51%
Nial Kuyek		34%
Della Anaquod		14%
Greg Chatterson		2%

Barton: It comes too late to effect the result, but it's worth restating that the Conservatives held their ground in Alberta and actually improved over their 2015 result in Saskatchewan. All said and done, the Conservatives will have 40 members from just these two provinces going into the next parliament—more than half their total. What that means for the direction of the party as it looks to rebuild after tonight's disappointing result we'll leave for the politicians and their constituents to answer.

Mansbridge: In just a moment, we should be receiving results from British Columbia, our final outstanding province tonight; please stand by.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Mansbridge: From the reports now coming in, it appears counting has concluded in all forty-two ridings of the province of British Columbia, and here are the results.

British Columbia

NDP		35%		20
Liberal		34%		17
Conservative		25%		4
Green		5%		1

Mansbridge: As many had expected, but none were quite able to predict, NDP just edges out Justin Trudeau for just under half the seats in this province, almost doubling their count.

Barton: A very satisfying victory for the NDP, who barely carried this province over the Conservatives in 2015, 31% to 30%; their up four points tonight, though the margin is still quite close; certainly they benefited from the collapse of the Greens in the final weeks of the campaign, who initially looked to poll as high as 13% in this province, and many in the field are crediting Gregor Robinson's eleventh-hour endorsement for pushing the party over the line.

In all, a very similar story to what the Conservatives are facing: NDP will enter the next parliament with more than half their members from ridings in Western Canada, most of those from this province alone. It's not enough to completely offset losses in Quebec and Ontario, but it does stop the bleeding.

Mansberidge: This concludes our coverage of the 2016 federal election. From all of us here at CBC, thank-you, and good night.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

National Results

Liberal		41.0%		193
Conservative		26.7%		75
NDP		23.7%		55
BQ		7.0%		25
Green		1.6%		1