Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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Posts: 14,139
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« on: August 17, 2015, 04:19:36 PM » |
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1960
Nixon (R) over Kennedy (D)
Reasoning: Ike's popularity, Nixon's performance in the Kitchen Debate, and Kennedy's inexperience all give the GOP an edge.
1964
Johnson (D) over Goldwater (R)
Reasoning: Goldwater was too far to the right and Johnson had the momentum of the Civil Rights Movement behind him.
1968
Nixon (R) over Humphrey (D)
Reasoning: The Democrats are divided over Vietnam, the DNC was a disaster, and the Solid South is breaking up.
1972
Nixon (R) over McGovern (D)
Reasoning: I would have been supporting McGovern, but he never had a chance.
1976
Carter (D) over Ford (R)
Reasoning: High inflation and the stigma of Watergate make for a Democratic pickup.
1980
Carter (D) over Reagan (R)
Reasoning: The polls indicate a tight race midsummer in spite of Carter's weaknesses, Anderson has the potential to steal moderate Republican votes from Reagan, and Reagan's policies are similar to Goldwater's. Needless to say I would have been unpleasantly surprised.
1984
Reagan (R) over Mondale (D)
Reasoning: Mondale ran a weak campaign and Reagan ran a strong one.
1988
Bush (R) over Dukakis (D)
Reasoning: Reagan is popular and Dukakis isn't ready for the national spotlight.
1992
Clinton (D) over Bush (R)
Reasoning: Like Carter, Bush had early foreign policy successes that were obscured by a poor economy and faces a charismatic challenger in the general election.
1996
Clinton (D) over Dole (R)
Reasoning: The GOP took the heat for the government shutdown, and Clinton has long since cemented his reputation as the "comeback kid".
2000
Gore (D) over Bush (R)
Reasoning: The economy is good and Gore had a much easier path to the nomination than Bush, and so is seemingly "stronger".
2004
Kerry (D) over Bush (R)
Reasoning: A combination of Kerry's polling lead and my personal dislike for Bush would have led me to project a Democratic victory.
2008
Obama (D) over McCain (R)
Reasoning: The economy is terrible, McCain's pro-war stance is ripe for attack, and Obama has the momentum.
2012
Obama (D) over Romney (R)
Reasoning: The economy is getting better, foreign policy is going well, the polls show Obama leading heavily, and the primaries showed that even Republicans have their doubts about Romney.
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