My end of Q2 list of all potentially competitive Democrats

[136or142]

This includes states where primaries haven't yet been held. I predict who wins the primary here.  Obviously I will update as more primaries are held and as fundraising data is updated.  There are 107 on the list. As I've written previously given the gerrymandering and the way how close races tend to go all the same way (even though that is more the case in the U.S Senate than in the U.S House) I think it's more like the Democrats will gain either 20-30 districts or 50-70 districts than 30-50 districts.  I think gaining around zero districts is actually nearly as likely as gaining 30-50.

Madeleine Dean isn't on this list because I think she's running in an essentially incumbent Democratic district.


In order of how likely I think they are to win:

1.Chrissy Houlahan
2.Jeff Van Drew  (I initially wrote Jeff Can Drew )
3.Harley Rouda
4.Mary Gay Scanlon
5.Donna Shalala (reminds me of the Banana Splits song )
6.Ann Kirkpatrick
7.Jennifer Wexton
8.Daniel McCready
9.Mikie Sherrill
10.Anthony Brindisi
11.Gina Ortiz Jones
12.Angie Craig
13.Abby Finkenauer
14.Kim Schrier
15.Tim Greimel
16.Brendan Kelly
17.Mike Levin
18.Jared Golden
19.Jason Crow
20.Amy McGrath
21.Elissa Slotkin
22.Dean Phillips
23.Josh Harder
24.Katie Hill
25.Gil Cisneros
26.Anthony Delgado
27.Jay Sidie
28.Paul Davis
29.Lizzie Fletcher
30.Colin Allred

31.Nancy Soderberg
32.Cathy Myers (not Randy Bryce!)
33.Kathy Manning
34.Elaine Luria
35.Susan Wild
36.Ron DiNicola (never seen a DiNicola either as opposed to Di Nicola or something)
37.Ben McAdams
38.Andrew Learned (not Learner, my bad)
39.Leslie Cockburn
40.Lauren Baer
41.Joseph Kopser
42.Tom Malinowski
43.Diane Mitsch Bush
44.Katie Porter
45.Aftab Pureval
46.Sean Casten
47.Kathleen Williams
48.Linda Coleman
49.Richard Ojeda
50.Gretchen Driskell
51.Andy Kim
52.Abigail Spanberger
53.Kara Eastman
54.Scott Wallace
55.George B. Scott (I know he's known as George Scott)
56.Clarke Tucker
57.Mary Jennings Hegar
58.Dan Kohl
59.Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
60.Lisa Brown

61.Cindy Axne
62.Lauren Underwood
63.Betsy Dirksen Londrigan
64.Betsy Rader
65.Matt Longjohn
66.Max Rose
67.Carolyn Bordeaux
68.Perry Gershon
69.Xochitl Lana Torres-Small
70.Mac Schneider
71.Theresa Gasper
72.Yvonne Hayes-Hinson
73.David Shapiro
74.Peter Joffrion
75.Mel Hall
76.Frank McNeil
77.Cort VanOstran
78.Tim Bjorkman
79.Matt Morgan
80.Liz Watson
81.Brian Ewert
82.T.J Cox
83.Joe Cunningham
84.Bibiana Biero
85.Dana Balter
86.Max Della Pia
87.Denny Wolff
88.Todd Litton
89.Francys Johnson
90.Denise 'D.D' Adams


91.Mike Siegal
92.Jana Lynne Sanchez
93.Talley Sergent
94.Kendra Horn
95.Ken Harbaugh
96.Lorie Burch
97.Kyle Horton
98.Sri Preston Kulkarni
99.Dan Wood
100.Eric Holguin
101.Julie Oliver
102.Robert Williams
103.Michael 'Ted' Evans

Also
1.Danny O'Connor (Special Election)
2.Georgia 6, not sure who will win the run-off
3.Alyse Galvin (never know what Don Young might say or do that would have an impact on the race.  She is an independent who I believe has said she would caucus with the Democrats.)
4.Heather Ross (there are campaign finance violation allegations that came out against Schweikert a day or two ago, too soon to know where that might lead.  I don't think this district is even remotely competitive otherwise.)

Please disagree with me, but remember, as the pizza man said on Seinfeld: "On this, there can be no debate."

[136or142]

Cathy Myers! On this, there can be no debate!

It is Cort VanOstran!  I've never seen a 'Van' where there isn't a space in between before.

[136or142]

Cathy Myers! On this, there can be no debate!

It is Cort VanOstran!  I've never seen a 'Van' where there isn't a space in between before.

I mean, IronStache does have the backing of D-trip and all...

Cort VanOstran probably has the weirdest name of this election cycle, which is saying a lot considering "Xochitl Torres Small".

On Conor Lamb.  They're both 'the real incumbents.'  It's a case of member vs member.  Obviously Rothfus has served longer, but member vs member happens in both primaries and general elections with every redisctricting. I don't see the point in trying to designate one the incumbent and the other the challenger.

[136or142]

Cathy Myers! On this, there can be no debate!

It is Cort VanOstran!  I've never seen a 'Van' where there isn't a space in between before.

I mean, IronStache does have the backing of D-trip and all...

Cort VanOstran probably has the weirdest name of this election cycle, which is saying a lot considering "Xochitl Torres Small".

On Conor Lamb.  They're both 'the real incumbents.'  It's a case of member vs member.  Obviously Rothfus has served longer, but member vs member happens in both primaries and general elections with every redisctricting. I don't see the point in trying to designate one the incumbent and the other the challenger.

I included Conor Lamb mostly for academic purposes. He is an incumbent, but if you had to designate a single incumbent, Rothfus has served longer and Lamb currently represents only a fraction of the district he's currently running in.

1.I think you need to have some Democrat from Alaska on your list for the reason I said: Don Young is so erratic you never know if he'll finally melt down.

2.Peter Joffrion is my pick for surprise competitive race.  The Huntsville part of the district has a lot of science types.