Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[136or142]

Prediction:
Ron Estes (R) 50%
James Thompson (D) 36%
Chris Rockhold (Ltn) 4%

[136or142]

Prediction:
Ron Estes (R) 50%
James Thompson (D) 36%
Chris Rockhold (Ltn) 4%

Implying you predict 10% of all ballots are invalid

Yes, I just realized.  Very stupid of me.

Estes 54%
Thompson 42%
Rockhold 4%

[136or142]

I say:
Estes - 53%
Thompson - 43%
Rockhold - 4%

As a Wichitan, I know by any mean this is a hell of an uphill battle. Here's what Thompson has going for him:
-Insane fundraising numbers (for the 4th district)
-Strong grassroots support in Wichita's young professional community (we'll see if there are enough "new Wichitans" to propel him to victory)
-He's strongly pro-gun
-The field operation is incredibly strong, and there are thousands of volunteers on the ground and on the phones
-Estes hasn't really been campaigning much; his office has sat around empty for a while just before the election
-Estes somehow has less energy than Jeb Bush or Ben Carson, the guy is sooooo boring
-Paul Davis only lost the district by a few points, and Estes is strongly linked to unpopular Brownback

Here's what stands in his way though:
-This district bleeds red through and through-most Dems lose by 30
-Ted Cruz remains very popular with the large Evangelical population
-Abortion ads will hit Thompson hard, even though they're false; Abortion is even more of a fault line in Wichita than most places thanks to the Summer of Mercy and then years later, Dr. Tiller's killing
-Estes was the former county treasurer and current state treasurer, so people know him
-Will Black and Latino Democrats in Wichita turn out? There was a big turnout dropoff in 2014 and even from the presidential race to the congressional race in 2016

Isn't Wichita the biggest city in Kansas?  I know it's still a medium sized city, but it's a bit odd when the biggest city in a state is heavily Republican.

[136or142]

If the race ends up within single digits, then Thompson will have had crossover appeal, but I don't know how to quantify "lots" in this case.

I think I'm starting to annoy even myself with my 'jokey' replies here, but I think this one is a fairly funny reply to this.

From the Old T.V show 'Cheers'
Sam Malone: "Woody, next time you order beer, be more specific than “lots.”"

[136or142]

Hoping people keep the results in context. A D+15 swing for instance is hard for me to take as a "bad result." That being said, it saddens me that the GOP can pull off upsets like Scott Brown in Mass. and not the Dems.

to be fair, massachusetts has a decent chunk of "business" republicans who are more than willing to vote against democrats when they have a decent republican to vote for.

That's true. But I want Dems to be able to pull off upsets too. I feel like the GOP is the upset party, except for some rare instances like the Kathy Hochul old seat in NY, etc.

I guess the Democrats winning here depends on how 'upset' Republican voters are with the GOP.

[136or142]

So far Thompson leading

Brownback sweating like a dog

Link?!

There isn't any results, he's lying.
http://www.sos.ks.gov/ent/kssos_ent.html

Fake news?

It's a super close race though. Tied in fact. (0-0)

Posted this earlier, but you'll probably enjoy it

https://youtu.be/N3-SW11BoOk?t=5m8s

[136or142]

What sites are you guys looking at here for these numbers?

[136or142]

What sites are you guys looking at here for these numbers?

NYT

Thanks!

[136or142]

And then it was 3

?

[136or142]

And then it was 3

?

3 county's for Strange now

Ah, thanks.

[136or142]

One GIGANTIC leap BACKWARDS for America. Christ, a man who openly discriminates against the LGBT community, denies evolution, an avid bible-thumper, and an active proponent of the birther community is about to become a senator. Even Marine Le Pen would be horrified.

And I'll just post this here as well: https://dougjonesforsenate.com/

[136or142]

This is your party, Republicans

Y'all keep saying that, yet these kind of candidates (Moore, Trump) keep winning.

Uh, yes, that's exactly my point?

Uhh.. okay?

Except for the 7 State Legislative seats that have flipped this year.

[136or142]

Any chance during the Special Election that Roy Moore will spend his time trying to re-litigate on the campaign trail the Eric Robert Rudolph case?

[136or142]

This is your party, Republicans

Y'all keep saying that, yet these kind of candidates (Moore, Trump) keep winning.

Uh, yes, that's exactly my point?

Uhh.. okay?

Except for the 7 State Legislative seats that have flipped this year.

He's talking about non-traditional candidates like Moore and Trump..

Oh sure, but 7 state legislative seats flipping doesn't just happen by accident.  This is clearly a case of Democrats expressing their being 'butt hurt' by losing the Presidency to Trump by butt whupping Republicans in elections.

[136or142]

This is your party, Republicans

Y'all keep saying that, yet these kind of candidates (Moore, Trump) keep winning.

Uh, yes, that's exactly my point?

Uhh.. okay?

Except for the 7 State Legislative seats that have flipped this year.

He's talking about non-traditional candidates like Moore and Trump..

Oh sure, but 7 state legislative seats flipping doesn't just happen by accident.  This is clearly a case of Democrats expressing their being 'butt hurt' by losing the Presidency to Trump by butt whupping Republicans in elections.

What about Karen Handel defeating the next President of the United States Jon Ossoff in "muh educated white district." Flip the 6th!

Well see what happens come November 2018, but I hope you keep telling yourself that until then.

[136or142]

This is your party, Republicans

Y'all keep saying that, yet these kind of candidates (Moore, Trump) keep winning.

Cuz y'all reward and empower maniacs. That's your problem, not ours.

If they're such big maniacs, why do they win?

“Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.”  George Carlin

[136or142]

Republicans All Moore and Strange Voters are bad people.

FTFY

FTFY

[136or142]

Final result
Roy Moore: 262,070 54.6%
Luther Strange: 218,036, 45.4%

Strange won the 3 large counties by population as well as the small majority black county of Sumter.

[136or142]

Rick Saccone (R) - State Rep., College Professor & Retired USAF Officer has been chosen at the Republican nominating convention to be their candidate in Pennsylvania 18 to replace Tim Murphy.

http://www.politicspa.com/saccone-wins-pa-18-nomination/85345/

[136or142]

My take on the major party candidates for the Arizona 8th district Special Election from looking at their issue positions on their websites.

Republican
1.Chad Allen, mostly focused on economic issues, economic conservative but offers only platitudes.

2.Brendan Dilley, Idiot Trump type.

3.Stephen Douglas, Moderate Libertarian

4.Debbie Lesko, Idiot Trump type, but not complete idiot as she's not an ideologue and can be more practical.

5.Dave Lien, Moderate Conservative.

6.Phil Lovas, Idiot Trump type

7.Richard Mack, Libertarian Tea Bagger

8.Steve Montenegro, Idiot Trump Type

9.Bob Stump, No Issues Positions, but quotes people calling him a 'thoughtful conservative' and an 'intellectual' and thinks like that.  Biggest issue about him seems to be that he changed his first name to have the same name as a former longtime Arizona Republican member of the U.S House.

10.Chris Sylvester, No specific issue positions, but statement of principles. Seems to be a pragmatic moderate conservative.

11.Clair Van Steenwyk, Loony Conspiracy Type - "Agenda 21" - Issue page seems to be the same as from his 2012 U.S Senate primary run.

12.Mark Yates.  Statement of Principles.  Conservative but supports teaching 'critical thinking' in schools as opposed to 'rote learning.'

My meaningless endorsement - Chris Sylvester


Democrats
1.Hiral Tipirneni, Centrist Democrat

2.Brianna Westbrook, Progressive

My meaningless endorsement - Hiral Tipirneni

[136or142]

Any over/under predictions on the Republican primary turnout?  On the one hand, Republican intensity is said to be way down, on the other hand there are 12 Republicans running for the nomination, even if a few of them are pretty fringy.  (It presumably still all adds up.)

[136or142]

Updated results are finally starting to come in.

[136or142]

Final Results

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/arizona-house-special-election-primary

Democratic
Total Votes: 36,404
Hiral Tiperneni 21,703, 59.6%
Brianna Westbrook, 14,701, 40.4%

Republican
Total Votes: 71,420
Debbie Lesko, 25,508, 35.8%
Phil Lovas, 17,031, 23.9%
Steve Montenegro, 16,987, 23.8%
Others 11,794


Others
Bob Stump 3,832, 5.4%
Clair Van Steenwyk, 1,692, 2.4%
Christopher Sylvester, 1,370, 1.9%
David Lien, 1,261, 1.8%
Richard Mack, 1,014, 1.4%
Mark Yates, 799, 1.1%
Chad Allen, 747, 1.0%
Brendan Dilley, 734, 1.0%
Stephen Dolgos, 345, 0.5%

[136or142]

On election day turnout, Tiperni received 1,600 votes to 700 for Westbrook.
1,900 for Lesko, 1,800 for Lovas and 1,100 for Montenegro