Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

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Andrew Coyne ‏@acoyne  12m12 minutes ago
Second poll today to show Libs with 6-7 pt lead on Tories. I bet a dollar it’s 9-10 by Tuesday.

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Jason Kenney would be the likeliest to win.

Most likely to run
1.Jason Kenney
2.Lisa Raitt
3.Doug Ford

Likely to run
1.Maxime Bernier

Might run
1.Michael Chong
2.Tony Clement

Also might run
1.James Moore
2.John Baird
3.Peter McKay

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Will the bloc actually rebound in seats? Ugh.

Eh, 2011 was still probably a mortal blow even if the Bloc does rebound now (the way 1993 was a mortal blow to the PCs, even though they rebounded in 1997 and stayed in Parliament until 2003). Discounting 2011, the Bloc's worst-ever performances were 38 seats (in 2000), 10.0% of the all-Canada vote (in 2008), and 37.9% of the Quebec vote (in 1997). Those were their worst performances, and they are nowhere near any of those numbers.

Yes, but there won't be any Quebecers who vote for any B.Q M.P (except maybe 1) not because they support the party, but because they like that person as an M.P.  So, I would expect their vote to be a lot more concentrated this time around.  As I've said before,  most polls are showing them with a lead in Central and Northern Quebec (except for North East Quebec where they seem to be in a battle with the Conservatives.)

Yes, the PC vote became much more concentrated in 1997. It wasn't enough. There are three precedents in Canadian political history relevant to this situation (one of which was the exclusively-Quebecois party that existed prior to the Bloc): Social Credit (in its Western existence, which was wiped out in 1958, came back to Parliament in 1962, but failed to regain relevance and lost all seats in 1968), the Ralliement creditiste (or the Quebec variant of Social Credit, which lost more than half of its support in 1965, experienced a mild comeback in 1968-1972, and then slowly died, losing all seats in 1980), and most famously the Progressive Conservatives (who went from a majority to 2 seats in 1993; came back in 1997; declined mildly in 2000 and "merged" with the Canadian Alliance in 2003, which was essentially a party disbanding).

All three cases show the same pattern:
Election 1) Lose official party status and more than half of support.
Election 2) Rebound, but not all the way to prior levels. OPS may be regained or not.
Election 3) Variable.
Elections 4+) Steady decline into nothingness.

Three is of course no significant sample, but it's worth noting that the 2011/2015 pattern of Bloc support has happened three times before in Canadian history, and it was always followed by an eventual decline into irrelevance. So the precedent is there.

In regards to the Progressive Conservatives you left out that they won a by election in Ontario shortly before their leadership race which was won by a person who lied that he wouldn't seek out this 'merger.'

My own view is that had Joe Clark remained on as leader until the sponsorship scandal came to light, that the P.Cs under his leadership in the next election would have come close to sweeping Ontario and maybe much of the Atlantic and likely some parts of Quebec as well. 

So, you leave out that the result that poor decision making by the parties involved played a role in their eventual demise and they were maybe not as inevitable as you seem to be suggesting.  (In the case of Clark, there had been rumors for a number of years following the 1995 referendum that some Federal Quebec Liberals had been engaged in illegal activity, as was more or less eventual brought to light.  He should have found out at what stage those rumors were being investigated before resigning as leader.)

In the case of the B.Q, I would point out that they have a reason for existing that those other parties didn't and, therefore their support should not dry up completely, that, of course, of seperatism. 

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For those who don't know which poll to believe.  I think it's telling that Harper is spending nearly all his time in Conservative marginal ridings.  In the 2013 B.C election in contrast, even though every poll had the NDP in the lead, Christy Clark spent nearly all her time in NDP marginal ridings, especially in the interior.

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As I've already said these are the 4 young horsepeople of the NDPocalypse.

1.Nathan Cullen
2.Niki Ashton
3.Guy Caron
4.Megan Leslie

Is Guy Caron likely to be reelected?

If Erin Weir gets elected in Saskatchewan, he could join this group.

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Testy interview between B.C's CKNW radio show host John McComb and Stephen Harper.

http://www.cknw.com/2015/10/13/exclusive-one-on-one-with-stephen-harper/

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My reaction to these names is as follows:

I see Nathan Cullen as an obvious contender. He is very personable, speaks excellent French and performed much better than expected when he ran for the leadership in 2012...he would also be the first ever NDP leader from BC.

Niki Ashton I don't take seriously. She's not a bad low level critic but I'm not that impressed with her and her leadership campaign in 2012 was a bit of a dud.

Guy Caron is a good MP, unfortunately his eyes look like they are popping out of his skull (does he have an iodine deficiency?). I think he is very likely to re-elected barring a total NDP crash in Quebec. He won by a wide margin, is high profile and even got endorsed by the former BQ MP for his riding.

Megan Leslie would be an excellent option as well. Don't know how good her French is.

Erin Weir is a joke. He has no social skills whatsoever and thanks to him winning the NDP nomination in Regina-Lewvan - a riding that should have been a sure win, is now likely a sure loss....the more people he meets, the fewer votes he gets. On top of that I'm quite sure he peaks no French whatsoever.

As I've already said these are the 4 young horsepeople of the NDP apocalypse.

1.Nathan Cullen
2.Niki Ashton
3.Guy Caron
4.Megan Leslie

Is Guy Caron likely to be reelected?

If Erin Weir gets elected in Saskatchewan, he could join this group.

For what it's worth, Tommy Douglas was a B.C M.P during his Federal Leadership.

Also, Guy Caron only won 42-30% in 2011.  Though Chicoutimi isn't a neighboring riding of Caron's, they are both in Northern Quebec, so that could be a good sign for him.

I've always liked Erin Weir whenever he's been on television.

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Jean Lapierre said he's hearing Charest might be interested in the Tory leadership... to which my reaction is 1) Believe when seen 2) FYCK NO. I lost any patience I had for him in his first term.

I mentioned his name before. But, on CBC's The House a while back he said something like "one promise I know I can keep is that I'm never getting back into elected politics."

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Which incumbents would you most like to see lose?

For me, these are the ones (that likely could lose):
1.Joe Oliver
2.Pierre Polievre
3.Paul Calandra
4.Chris Alexander
5.Julian Fantino
6.Wei Young
7.Alice Wong
8.Kerri Lynne Findley
9.Leona Aglukaq

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Possibly. If there's one thing left that can swing large numbers of votes it's major newspaper endorsements. Any idea when the G&M is going to drop theirs?

I think hardly anybody is swayed by newspaper endorsements these days.

Does anybody think that there were some voters who went into the advanced polls planning to vote Conservative but got so annoyed by the long lineups that they ended up voting for a different party?

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Possibly. If there's one thing left that can swing large numbers of votes it's major newspaper endorsements. Any idea when the G&M is going to drop theirs?

I think hardly anybody is swayed by newspaper endorsements these days.

Does anybody think that there were some voters who went into the advanced polls planning to vote Conservative but got so annoyed by the long lineups that they ended up voting for a different party?

Its odd to hear these stories of lineups. As I noted on a previous page, it was a total dead zone when my wife and I went to vote Monday. We were the only ones there.

Given the total number of people who voted and the problems with Elections Canada this time around that made it less prepared than for even the number of people who voted in 2011, I have no doubt at all that these stories were more than just anecdotes or isolated incidents.

The main problems were twofold:
1.I don't believe Elections Canada actually cut back on staffing.  There is a set number of people required for each polling station and the same number of people as in 2011 were likely hired.  Also, the idea of increasing the number of polling stations or hiring additional staff were clearly non starters.  It would be impossible to rent additional space and by the time the new staff were hired, the advanced voting would be over.

The problem with the cuts to funding were that the staff weren't adequately trained, which increased the time it took for them to deal with each voter.  Apparently quite a number of those employed believed the voting cards were mandatory (they aren't) and many were thoroughly confused as to what counted as acceptable I.D.

2.Point one hints at the second point: the changes made to voting requirements by the Orwellian named Fair Elections Act that completely confused a lot of voters and a good deal of the hired election workers.  

It would be completely appropriate for those who planned to vote Conservative to change their minds while their blood pressure rose as they waited in line to vote.  I don't know if the Conservatives did these things intentionally to make it harder for Canadians in general to vote (as opposed to the targeted groups in the UnFair Elections Act), but it was, at best, an obvious unintended consequence of their legislation.

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I suppose it depends on where you live. The cutbacks the Tories made to Elections Canada are probably going to hit hardest in the highest-density areas.

Daily Nanos has 37.1/29.4/23.7

Libs now within one point of the NDP in Quebec and ahead by nearly 17 (!) points in Ontario.

Apparently Nanos has the best track record on any polling firm on Canadian Federal elections.  That said, a polling firm can be very accurate in one election, and then be way off in another election, with no malice intended.

If these numbers are accurate, I'd say the Liberals are likely on the cusp of a majority government (which the head of Mainstreet Technologies tweeted a day ago that he now expects.)  This is especially the case if those voting strategically are targeted enough to focus especially on Conservative M.Ps.  The best case of this targeting (not the strategic voting) was the U.K election in 1997 when Tory ridings saw a greater reduction in that party's share of the vote than in the non Tory held ridings.

We'll see if the resignation of the Liberal Party campaign co-chair has any impact.  For those who believe the CBC is anti Conservative, that was the top story on their radio news broadcast at 10:00 PT and, for all that I know, may have been their top story for much of the evening.  

I personally think that this story has broken too late, and the Liberal Party in a roundabout fashion dealt with it too quickly for it to have much impact.  It may halt Liberal momentum though, especially in Quebec, for a day or two.

I think there are also too many other negative stories around for nearly all voters, except for the partisan Conservatives to focus too much on this.  In addition to the advanced polling problems and the evidence they were partly caused by Conservative cutbacks and legislation, they have the issue of their dishonest ethnic voter advertisements they are using in the Toronto and Vancouver regions and the general idiocy of Harper's use of the 'cash register' sound effect as well as the fact that, it to, is based on lies.  Oh, and finally there is the 'tough on crime and illegal drugs' party embracing admitted crack user Rob Ford.  Cocaine, it's a hell of a drug, except, I guess, unless you're planning to have sex with sheep.

For the NDP, many voters are likely to conclude that their claim that they are closer to forming government because they need to win less (additional) seats than the Liberals is an insult to their intelligence, and the repetition of this claim is likely backfiring on them.

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We'll see if the resignation of the Liberal Party campaign co-chair has any impact.  For those who believe the CBC is anti Conservative, that was the top story on their radio news broadcast at 10:00 PT and, for all that I know, may have been their top story for much of the evening.  

I personally think that this story has broken too late, and the Liberal Party in a roundabout fashion dealt with it too quickly for it to have much impact.  It may halt Liberal momentum though, especially in Quebec, for a day or two.

Yes, it's a bit late in the day for something like this to resonate widely, though not impossible. Perhaps a more telling observation is how quickly the Liberal campaign reacted to the negative news. They dispatched the co-chair immediately and issued the requisite stern-yet-contrite sounding statement within hours. Whether or not that undoes the damage is anyone's guess, but it's a sign that the Liberal campaign is pretty agile, even under duress.

For what it's worth Dan Gagnier resigned himself  (under pressure?).  The Liberal Party initially defended him and even after he resigned called the attacks on him a 'smear.'  That said, I doubt Justin Trudeau himself had anything to do with the Liberal Party officials who initially defended their boss.  Justin Trudeau should make it clear the people behind that decision to defend him will play no role in a Liberal government.  

I think we'll get an early indication of how sincere Justin Trudeau is to running a clean administration by whether Lawrence McCauley and Wayne Easter of P.E.I, Sukh Dhaliwal of B.C and maybe Judy Sgro of Ontario get into the cabinet. If any of them do, Justin Trudeau could be a big let down.  I'd mention Joe Peschisolido as well, but I'm sure he's not considered cabinet material by anybody's definition.  

I suspect in P.E.I though that Sean Murphy is that province's designated cabinet minister.

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Globe endorses Conservatives not Harper

This is a bizarre endorsement (and likely a reflection of the tension between the editorial board and ownership, where a Liberal endorsement was replaced by a Conservative one in the last provincial election). So basically it says: stick with the Conservatives because the Liberals and NDP aren't all that different anyway. And then goes on to say replace Harper with a more moderate leader. But Harper's most likely successor is the more socially conservative Jason Kenney.

The near universal mainstream media endorsement of the Washington Consensus, including nearly all columnists, trumps their pretend concern for honest and ethical government.

I agree with the above comment though, I don't think there are more than a handful of people left who base their votes on newspaper endorsements.

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"Just not ready" didn't have the punch of "Just visiting" or "do you think it's easy to set priorities." They should have gone with something along the lines of "pompous douchebag."

"Pompous douchebag" would be a campaign ad against Stevie.

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If the final results looks something like this, is it safe to say Mulcair would resign as NDP leader?

It would be completely up to him, there really aren't any "factions" in the party who would want to pressure him to quit and there is no rival for the leadership who would be plotting behind the scenes. For a leader to be forced out there usually has to be a viable successor waiting in the wings

Talking of that, anyone has news of Brian Topp? He said he would run somewhere in Quebec in 2015, but no news since then.

He's Alberta Premier Rachel Notley's Chief of Staff.

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Crap campaigner against a fantastic one in Diefenbaker. I guess you could count '72 for uncertainty but Trudeau would probably have stayed so long as LPC/NDP had a majority against PC/Socred.

I don't think the NDP would have had any problem working with P.C leader Robert Stanfield had the P.Cs come out on top.

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I'm going to miss all the polls.  Can we keep this election going for another six months or so?

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Liberal cabinet prediction.  Justin Trudeau will have a number of 'star' new M.Ps, but my guess is, outside of B.C and Alberta, he'll tell them all to first get parliamentary experience.  Because, after all, we know what a star Justin Trudeau was in Parliament before becoming Liberal Party leader

There aren't enough M.Ps in a number of provinces to fill their 'quota' but the Liberals have at least 10 former M.Ps running again who are likely to win.

1.Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau
2.Finance, Ralph Goodale (Former Finance Minister)
3.Treasury Board President, Francis Scarpaleggia
4.Industry, John McCallum (Former Cabinet Minister)
5.International Trade, Scott Brison (Former Cabinet Minister)
6.Revenue, Navdeep Bains (former M.P)
7.Labour, Yasmin Ratansi (former M.P)
8.Natural Resources, Anthony Rota (former M.P)
9.Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs, Denis Paradis (former M.P) (Former Minister of State)
10.Fisheries and Oceans, Yvonne Jones
11.Environment, Stephane Dion (Former Environment Minister)
12.Canadian Heritage, Adam Vaughan
13.Transportation and Infrastructure, Joyce Murray
14.Government Services and Public Works, Arnold Chan (If healthy)
15.Human Resources, Chrystia Freeland
16.Social Development, Kent Hehr (Alberta newcomer)
17.Health, Carolyn Bennett (Former Minister of State)
18.Immigration and Citizenship, Alexandra Mendès (Former M.P)
19.Indian Affairs and Northern Development, Jody Wilson-Raybould (B.C newcomer)
20.Intergovernmental Affairs, Pablo Rodriguez, (Former M.P)
21.Veterans Affairs, Kevin Lamoureux
22.Defense, David McGuinty
23.International Development, Kirsty Duncan
24.Foreign Affairs, Marc Garneau
25.Solicitor General and Public Safety, Mark Holland (Former M.P)
26.Attorney General, Sean Casey
27.Government House Leader, Dominic LeBlanc

Chief Government Whip, Judy Foote
Speaker, Geoff Regan