Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

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Some election result figures.

These results are based on the NDP winning the tie seat in Calgary, The P.Cs winning the Peace River riding with the approx 300 votes flipping from the Alberta Party to them and is based on the regional definitions on the wiki page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta_general_election,_2015#Nominated_candidates

I had nothing to do with those regional breakdowns, so if you have a complaint with them (and I'm not a big fan of them myself) tell them about it and not me, please.

North
Total Votes: 137,419, 11 ridings
NDP: 45,586 33.17%, 3
P.C: 40,064 29.15, 2
WRP: 47,027 34.22, 6
Liberal: 1,344 0.98
AP: 3,058 2.23
Oth: 340

Central Edmonton: 191,025 11 ridings
NDP: 129,078 67.57%, 11
P.C: 33,714 17.65
WRP: 13,150 6.88
Lib: 12,432 6.51
AP: 1,742 0.91
Oth: 909

Outer Edmonton and Suburbs: 191,563 10 ridings
NDP: 112,744 58.85%, 10
P.C: 46,949 24.51
WRP: 22,285 11.63
Lib: 7,305 3.81
AP: 1,875 0.98
Oth: 405

West Central: 178,118 10 ridings
NDP: 55,625 31.23%, 6
P.C: 49,462 27.77
WRP: 58,669 32.94, 4
Lib: 5,572 3.13
AP: 5,566 3.12
Oth: 3,224

East Central: 143,608 8 ridings
NDP: 48,889 34.04%, 4
P.C: 45,732 31.85, 1
WRP: 44,492 30.98, 3
Lib: 1,048 0.73
AP: 2,861 1.99
Oth: 586

South: 191,991, 11 ridings
NDP: 60,777 31.66%, 4
P.C: 53,860 28.05
WRP: 68,838 35.85, 7
Lib: 3,372 1.76
AP: 3,420 1.78
Oth: 1,724

Central Calgary: 205,946, 12 ridings
NDP: 73,044 35.47%, 9
P.C: 59,214, 28.75 1
WRP: 40,058, 19.45
Lib: 19,982 9.70, 1
AP: 11,810 5.76, 1
Oth: 1,838

Outer Calgary and Suburbs: 247,207, 14 ridings
NDP: 77,718 31.44%, 6
P.C: 84,260, 34.08, 7
WRP: 65,582 26.53, 1 (Chestermere-Rocky View)
Lib: 11,116 4.50
AP: 3,235 1.31
Oth: 5,296

Results excluding Edmonton and its suburbs
Total Votes: 1,104,289, 66 ridings
NDP: 361,639 32.75%, 32
P.C: 332,572 30.12, 11
WRP: 324,666 29.40, 21
Lib: 62,171, 1
AP: 29,950, 1
Oth: 13,008

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Narrow NDP defeats

Under 5%
Rural North
1.Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills, 34.21-38.65% (WRP), 547 votes
2.Peace River, 37.72-37.91% (P.C), 17 or 18 votes

Central Calgary
3.Calgary-Fish Creek, 32.22-32.95% (P.C), 136 votes

Outer Calgary and Suburbs
4.Calgary-Lougheed,  32.20-34.73% (P.C), 429 votes
5.Calgary North West, 29.51-32.83% (P.C), 672 votes
6.Calgary South East, 31.19-32.48% (P.C), 303 votes

North Town
7.Grand Prairie-Smoky, 30.84-33.43% (WRP), 418 votes

Under 10% losses
Rural North
1.Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock, 34.03-39.33% (WRP), 972 votes

West Central
2.Drayton Valley-Devon, 28.38-37.01% (WRP), 1,465 votes

East Central
3.Lacombe-Ponoka, 30.10-35.71% (WRP) 1,021 votes

Central Calgary
4.Calgary-Mountain View, 28.92-36.58% (Lib), 1,503 votes

Outer Calgary and Suburbs
5.Calgary-Foothills, 32.34-40.30% (P.C), 1,415 votes
6.Calgary-Greenway, 36.19-42.97% (P.C), 844 votes
7.Calgary-Hays, 29.49-38.25, (P.C), 1,528 votes

South
8.Airdrie, 29.83-35.13% (WRP), 1,531 votes

Northern Towns
9.Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo, 30.37-40.14% (WRP), 936 votes
10.Grand Prairie-Wapiti, 28.68-35.84 (P.C), 1250 votes

Total Narrow Losses: 17
To P.C: 9
To WRP: 7
To Lib: 1

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Ridings where NDP won less than 20%

North
1.Bonnyville-Cold Lake, 18.09%

West Central
2.Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills, 16.84%
3.Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre, 16.74%

East Central
4.Drumheller-Stettler, 18.43%
5.Vermilion-Lloydminster, 19.35%

Calgary
6.Calgary-Elbow, 15.82% (Riding of Alberta Party leader)

Suburban Calgary
7.Chestermere-Rocky View, 18.86%

South
8.Cardston-Taber-Warner, 19.63%
9.Highwood, 19.01%
10.Strathmore-Brooks, 14.96% (lowest NDP share of vote in Province)

Excluding the Northern Rural ridings, the NDP won 9 rural ridings and lost 14.

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Lowest 2012 NDP share of vote 2015 winners

North
1.Lesser Slave Lake, 5.91%, 43.16%

Suburban Edmonton
2.Sherwood Park, 6.31, 52.11

West Central
3.Whitecourt-Ste Anne, 5.43, 36.03

Central Calgary
4.Calgary-Acadia, 4.51, 34.71 (Riding of first NDP Finance Minister and then Premier, Yoga Teacher (and small business owner!) Brandy Payne)
5.Calgary-Buffalo, 4.73, 35.11
6.Calgary-Cross, 5.05, 36.14
7.Calgary-Currie, 5.43, 39.52
8.Calgary-Fort, 6.84, 49.81
9.Calgary-Glenmore, 5.95, 33.17 (Tie with P.C)
10.Calgary-Varsity, 4.82, 43.91

Outer Calgary and Suburbs
11.Calgary-Hawkwood, 4.64, 36.34
12.Calgary-Bow, 4.08, 34.54 (riding of NDP marijuana supporter? Deborah Drever)
13.Calgary-McKay-Nose Hill, 5.94, 36.67
14.Calgary-McCall, 2.14!, 29.86
15.Calgary-Northern Hills, 5.14, 38.27

South
16.Banff-Cochrane, 6.68, 42.97

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The internet truly has changed things.  Remember when you had to pay for crappy 'analysis' like I posted above?  Now there's some idiot who's willing to do it for free.

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Debbie Jabbour who may or may not be the new MLA for Peace River wrote a book on Shakira!
http://www.hyperink.com/Shakira-A-Biography-b1438

Edit: Nevermind, it's a different Debbie Jabbour.  Odd, two Debbie Jabbour's in Alberta who both became pshychologists late in life.

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This is my prediction for the NDP cabinet. Not a single university student. Keep in mind I'm no insider.

1.Premier/Federal-Provincial Relations, Rachel Notley,51, Nurses Union Labour Relations Official, Labour Lawyer, B.A-Political Science, MLA 2008-, Party Leader 2014- Edmonton-Strathcona

2.Finance, Brian Mason,61, Bus Driver, Edmonton City Councillor 1989-2000, MLA 2000-, Party Leader 2004-2014, B.A-Political Science, Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood

3.Economic Development and Trade, Shannon Phillips,39, Alberta Federation of Labour Director of Policy Analysis, Past Chair Womanspace Resource Center Former CBC Newsworld Producer, B.A-Political Science (Honors), M.A-Political Science, Lethbridge West

4.Tourism, Small Business and Culture, Marg McCauig-Boyd, Self Employed Management and Leadership Consultant, Former Grand Prairie Regional College Campus Vice President, Former Teacher, B.A-Secondary Education, M.A- Education Administration and Leadership, Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley (North), (Yes, the riding is named after Notley, but Rachel Notley's father, there are also ridings named after Ralph Klein, Peter Lougheed and Laurence Decore)

5.Labour and Immigration/Women, Kathleen Ganley,36, McGown Johnson Law Firm Labour and Employment Lawyer/Former Academic Researcher, B.A-Psychology, B.A-Philosophy (Honors), Calgary-Buffalo

6.Natural Resources, Eric Rosendahl,62, Retired West Fraser Pulp Mill 3rd Class Steam Engineer, Former Parks Officer, Former President Yellowhead Labour Council, President Hinton Fish and Game Association, Diploma-Renewable Resources and Wildlife Management Technology, West Yellowhead, (West Central Alberta)

7.Agriculture, Food and Rural Development, Oneil Carlier, PSAC Regional Representative, Former Agriculture Canada Geotechnical Technician, Whitecourt-Ste Anne (West Central Alberta)

8.Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources, Anam Kazim,28, ITT Goulds Pumps Applications Engineer/Former Project Management Consultant, B.Sc-Chemical Engineering, M.Sc-BioChemical and Environmental Engineering, Calgary-Glenmore (The result in this riding is a tie between Kazim and a P.C candidate)

Should Kazim lose the recount

8.Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources, Craig Coolahan,44, United Utility Workers Association Business Representative (Negotiator), Alberta Federation of Labour Executive, Former Utility Company Technical Writer, Former Freelance Writer and Editor, B.A-English Literature, B.A-Journalism, Calgary-Klein

or 8, Energy MInes and Petroleum Resources, Deron Bilous,39, Former High School English and Social Studies Teacher, B.A-Education, MLA 2012-, Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview

or 8, Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources, Karen McPherson,48, Information Technology Professional and Oil and Gas Business Analyst, Calgary-MacKay-Nose Hill

or Energy,Mines and Petroleum Resources, Shannon Phillips,39, Alberta Federation of Labour Director of Policy Analysis, Past Chair Womanspace Resource Center Former CBC Newsworld Producer, B.A-Political Science (Honors), M.A-Political Science, Lethbridge West

or 8. Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources, Rachel Notley

9.Environment, Marlin Schmidt,36, Provincial Environment Ministry Scientist, Former Environmental Consultant, Professional Accordion Player, M.Sc-Hydrogeology, Edmonton-Gold Bar

10.Transportation and Infrastructure, Joe Ceci,57, Community Economic Development Agency (Momentum) Public Policy Manager, Forme Calgary Community Worker and Registered Social Worker Former President Family and Community Support Services Association of Alberta, MSW, Calgary City Councillor, Calgary-Fort, 1995-2010

11.Government Services and Public Works/Government House Leader, David Eggen,53, Executive Director Alberta Friends of Medicare, Former High School English Teacher and Union Activist, Former High School Coach, B.A-Education, MLA 2004-2008, 2012-, Edmonton-Calder

12.Human Resources and Housing, Marie Renaud,50 Lo-Se-Ca Foundation Executive Director, St. Albert (Edmonton suburb)

13.Children and Family Development, Lori Sigurdson,54, Alberta College of Social Work Manager for Professional Affairs/Social Work Instructor and Former Social Worker, Vice President Public Interest Alberta, Former Sunday School Teacher, B.A-Political Science, MSW, Edomonton-Riverview

14.Education, Sarah Hoffman,34, Former Alberta NDP Caucus Research Director, Edmonton Public School Trustee 2010-2015 and Board Chair 2012-2015, M.A- Educational Policy Studies, Edmonton-Glenora

15.Advanced Education, Training and Technology, Bruce Hinkley,66, Retired School Principal, B.A-Education, M.A-, Wetaskiwin-Camrose (East Central Alberta)

16.Health and Seniors, Bob Turner,66, Physician and Retired Medical and Oncology Professor, Former Hospital Director of Clinical Hematology, Former Canadian Red Cross Transfusion Service Medical Director, Edmonton-Whitemud

17.Municipal Affairs, Bob Wanner,66. Self Employed Professional Mediator, Retired Medicine Hat Commissioner of Public Services, Former Social Worker MBA, Medicine Hat

18.Aboriginal Relations, Colin Piquette,46, Cooperators Insurance Offices Manager, Former Educational Policy Studies Instructor, President Boyle and District Chamber of Commerce, Boyle District Agriculture Society Director, B.A- Political Science and Government (Distinction), M.A- Adult Education, Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater (North)

19.Attorney General, Stephanie McLean,28, Family Law and Criminal Defense Lawyer and Firm Owner, Alberta Criminal Defense Lawyers Association Executive B.A-Philosophy and Religous Studies, Calgary-Varsity

Speaker, Deron Bilous, MLA 2012-

or Speaker, David Swann, MLA ?-, Liberal Party Leader

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NDP MLAs
North
1.Colin Piquette,46, Cooperators Insurance Offices Manager, Former Educational Policy Studies Instructor, President Boyle and District Chamber of Commerce, Boyle District Agriculture Society Director,  B.A-Political Science and Government (Distinction), M.A-Adult Education, Son of Former MLA Leo Piquette, Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater 2001 nominee

2.Marg McCuaig-Boyd, Self Employed Management and Leadership Consultant, Former Grand Prairie Regonal College Campus Vice President, Former Teacher, B.A-Secondary Education, M.A-Education Administration and Leadership, Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley

3.Danielle Larivee,41, Public Health and Registered Nurse and Alberta Nurses Association Local President, Lesser Slave Lake

4. Debbie Jabbour, Health Center Addictions and Mental Health Provisional Psychologist, B.A-, Peace River?

Central Edmonton
1.Deron Bilous,39, MLA 2012-, Former High School English and Social Studies Teacher, B.A-Education, Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview

2.David Eggen,53, MLA 2004-2008, 2012-, Executive Director Alberta Friends of Medicare, Former High School English Teacher and Union Activist, Former High School Coach, 2014 Leadership Candidate (28% of vote) B.A-Education, Edmonton-Calder

3.David Shepherd,41, Edmonton City Communications Advisor LRT Design and Construction, Former Musician and Studio Engineer, Music Diploma-Piano, B.A-Professional Communications, B-Ed-English Literature and Literature, Edmonton Centre

4.Sarah Hoffman,34, Former Alberta NDP Caucus Research Director, Public School Trustee 2010-2015 and Board Chair 2012-2015, M.A-Educational Policy Studies, Edmonton-Glenora

5.Marlin Schmidt,36, Provincial Environment Ministry Scientist, Professional Accordion Player, M.Sc-Hydrogeology, Cross Fit Trainer, 2012 Nominee, Edmonton-Gold Bar

6.Brian Mason,61, MLA 2000-, Bus Driver, Edmonton City Councillor 1989-2000, B.A-Political Science, Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood

7.Denise Woollard,68, Retired University of Alberta University Facilitator, Former School Psychologist and Teacher, M-Ed-Counselling Psychology, Edmonton-Mill Creek

8.Christina Gray,36, Software Development Firm Project Manager and Senior Software Consultant, Former Computer Programming Instructor,  Past Chair Edmonton Transit System Advisory Board, B.A-Psychology, 2008 Nominee, Edmonton-Millwoods

9.Lori Sigurdson,54, Alberta College of Social Work Manager for Professional Affairs and Social Work Instructor, Former Social Worker, Vice  President Public Interest Alberta, Former Sunday School Teacher, B.A-Political Science, MSW, 2012 Nominee, Edmonton-Riverview

10.Richard Feehan,55, Social Work Professor, Former Social Worker, Former Edmonton Social Planning Council Program Director, Former Vice President Edmonton Catholic Social Services, B.A-, BSW, MSW, 2014 City Council Candidate (Distant Second), Edmonton-Rutherford

11.Rachel Notley,51, MLA 2008- and Party Leader 2014-, Alberta Nurses Union Labour Relations
Officer and Labour Lawyer, B.A-Political Science, Edmonton-Strathcona

Outer Edmonton and Suburbs
1.Nicole Goehring,38, Registered Social Worker and AUPE Activist, Manager Edmonton Seahawks (Junior Football Team), BSW, Edmonton-Castle Downs

2.Christopher Nielsen,48, Lucerne Foods Ice Cream Plant Shipper/Receiver and Plant Shop Steward/Union Local Health and Safety Committee Co-Chair, Engineering Design Diploma, Edmonton-Decore

3.Rod Loyola,41, President University of Alberta Non Academic Staff Association,  Former University of Alberta Global Education Program Programming Leader, Former NGO Project Manager, Community Television Program (Nosotros) Director and Producer, B.A-Cultural and Economic Anthropology, 2012 Nominee and 2014 NDP Leadership Candidate (2% of vote), Edmonton-Ellerslie

4.Heather Sweet,33, Child Protection Social Worker and AUPE Political Action Committee Member,Former Human Services Association Local Chair, Edmonton-Manning

5Lorne Dach,57, Re/Max Realtor, Past Chair Edmonton Non-Profit Housing Corporation, B.A-Political Science, 2012 Nominee, Edmonton-McClung

6.Jon Carson,23, Residential/Commerical Electrician, Broadcasting Diploma, Edmonton-Meadowlark

7.Thomas Dang,20, 4th Year Honours Computer Science Student, Edmonton South West

8.Bob Turner,66, Physician and Retired Medical Oncology Professor, Former Hospital Director of Clinical Hematology, Former Canadian Red Cross Transfusion Service Medical Director, 2014 Byelection Candidate, Edmonton-Whitemud

9.Annie McKitrick,62, Strategic Planning Consultant and Firm Principal, Former Municipal Community and Social Planner, B.Sc-Ecology, M.A-Education, Post Graduate Diploma Management/City/Urban/Community and Regional Planning, Former Richmond B.C School Trustee, Former Federal Liberal Candidate for Nomination in Richmond, Sherwood Park

10.Marie Renaud,50,Lo-Se-Ca Foundation Executive Director, St Albert

West Central
1.Kim Schreiner, Seniors Careworker and AUPE Activist, Red Deer North

2.Barb Miller,56, Canada Safeway Cashier and Union Local Shop Steward, President Red Deer and District Labour Council, Alberta Federation of Labour Executive, Red Deer South

3.Trevor Horne,24, Customer Service Representative, Political Science Student, Alberta YNDP Policy Chair, Spruce Grove-St Albert (Contrary to some lies, he does live in St Albert)

4.Erin Babcock,34, Licensed Practical Nurse, Stony Plain

5.Eric Rosendahl,62, Retired West Fraser Pulp Mill 3rd Class Steam Engineer, President Yellowhead Labour Council, Former Parks Officer, President Hinton Fish and Game Association, Renewable Resource and Wildlife Management Technology Diploma, 2014 Federal Byelection Candidate, West Yellowhead

6.Oneil Carlier, PSAC Regional Representative, Former Agriculture Canada Geotechnical Technician, Whitecourt-Ste Anne

East Cental
1.Jessica Littlewood,32, Ernst and Young Executive Assistant, Former Long Term Care Nursing Assistant, B.Sc-Nursing Assistant, (Edmonton Resident), Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville

2.Shaye "Big Beard" Anderson,40, Telus Installation and Repair Technician, TWU Local Shop Steward and Local Vice President, Physical Education Diploma, Leduc-Beaumont

3.Estefania Cortes-Vargas,24, Edmonton Public Schools Educational Assistant, MLA Constituency Assistant, Taekwondo Coach, Social Work Student, Vermilion-Lloydminster

4.Bruce Hinkley,66, Retired School Principal, B.A-Education, M.A-, Marathon? Runner, 2012 Nominee, Wetaskiwin-Camrose

Central Calgary
1.Brandy Payne,36, Owner Brandy Payne Yoga and Yoga Teacher, H2 Projects Inc (Engineering) Project Support Worker, Former Oil and Gas Field Worker, B.A-Journalism, Calgary-Acadia

2.Kathleen Ganley,36, McGown Johnson Law Firm Labour and Employment Lawyer, Former Academic Researcher, B.A-Psychology, B.A-Philosophy (Honours) Calgary-Buffalo

3.Ricardo Miranda,38, CUPE Research Representative and CUPE National Representative, Former Union Organizer, Former Air Canada Flight Attendant and Union Local President, English, Spanish and French Speaker, B.A-Humanities, Calgary-Cross

4.Brian Malkinson,30, Company Heavy Duty Diesel Equipment Sales Representative and former Technician, Former Internet Designer/Analyst, B.Sc-Technology in Art and Design, Skier and Car Restorer, 2014 Byelection Nominee, Calgary-Currie

5.Robyn Luff,34, Grade 8 Math and Science Teacher and Alberta Teachers Association School Representative, B.Sc-, M.A-Education, 2012 Nominee, Calgary East

6.Joe Ceci,57, Community Economic Development Agency (Momentum) Public Policy Manager, Former President Family and CommunitySupport Services Association of Alberta, Former Community Worker, MSW, Calgary City Councillor 1995-2010. Calgary-Fort

7.Anam Kazim,28, ITT Goulds and Pumps Applications Engineer, Former Project Management Consultant, B.Sc-Chemical Engineering, M.Sc-Bio Chemical and Environmental Engineering, Calgary Glenmore??, Tie result

8.Craig Coolahan,44, United Utility Workers Association Business Representative (Chief Negotiator), Alberta Federation of Labour Executive, Former Utility Company Technical Writer, Former Freelance Writer and Editor, B.A-English Literature, B.A-Journalism, 2012 Nominee in Calgary-Elbow, Calgary-Klein

9.Stephanie McLean,28, Family and Criminal Defense Lawyer and Firm Owner, Alberta Criminal Defense Lawyer Association Executive, B.A-Philosophy and Religious Studies, 2014 Calgary-Elbow Byelection Nominee, Calgary-Varsity

Outer Calgary and Suburbs
1.Deborah Drever,26, Sociology Student, Former Pizza Restaurant Staffer, Calgary-Bow

2.Michael Connolly,21, Former Niki Ashton, M.P Assistant, B.A-History and Political Science (Recently Graduated). Calgary-Hawkwood

3.Karen McPherson,48, Information Technology Professional and Oil and Gas Business Analyst, Calgary-MacKay-Nose Hill

4.Irfan Sabir,37, Maurice Law Firm Aboriginal Lawyer, B.A-Economics, BSW, Calgary-McCall

5.Jamie Kleinsteuber,38, Air Canada Ramp Worker and Baggage Agent, Former Ski Instructor, B.A- Canadian History, B.A-Public Policy and Management, 2012 Nominee in Banff-Cochrane, Calgary-Northern Hills

6.Graham Sucha,29, Restaurant Manager, Television Broadcasting Diploma, Former Political Science Student, Calgary-Shaw

South
1.Cameron Westhead,37, Operating Room Registered Nurse, United Nurses of Alberta Local Treasurer and United Nurses of Alberta Executive, B.A-, B.Sc-Nursing, Banff-Cochrane

2.Maria Fitzpatrick,66, Retired Correctional Services of Canada Project Officer, Lethbridge and District National Association of Federal Retirees Treasurer, Former PSAC National Capital Region Regional Executive Vice President, Former Canada Summer Games Sprinter and Former Track and Field Coach, Lethbridge East

3.Shannon Phillips,39, Alberta Federation of Labour Director of Policy Analysis, Past Chair Womanspace Resource Centre, Former CBC Newsworld Producer, B.A- Honours Political Science, M.A- Political Science, 2012 Nominee, Lethbridge West

4.Bob Wanner,66, Self Employed Professional Mediator and Retired Medicine Hat Commissioner of Public Services, Former Social Worker, MBA, 1993 Candidate, Medicine Hat





 

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It turns out Prentice didn't resign because he lost, he left to search for the real killers!

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Central Edmonton: 191,025 11 ridings
NDP: 129,078 67.57%, 11
P.C: 33,714 17.65
WRP: 13,150 6.88
Lib: 12,432 6.51
AP: 1,742 0.91
Oth: 909

Is Central Edmonton the city limits of Edmonton or something else? Either way, the NDP got more votes there this time than in the entire province in 2012 (by just over 2000 votes). In fact, that vote total alone is higher than anything for the NDP province-wide since 1989.

I'm pretty sure a bunch of the ridings that the Wiki Page (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta_general_election,_2015) called 'suburban Edmonton' actually include ridings in the city of Edmonton as well.  In those ridings (Iincluding the actual suburban ridings)  the NDP got around 58% of the vote.

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Brian Topp has been appointed Rachel Notley's Chief of Staff. I was going to put him on my list of potential Chiefs of Staff but I thought he was from Ontario not Saskatchewan as I was familiar with him as the former top aide to Jack Layton and was unaware that he had previously been a senior aide to Roy Romanow.

Good to see Anam Kazim win, that makes the final results baring recounts as:
NDP 54
WR 21
P.C 10
Lib 1
Alb 1

Good also to see that the second count had been done in Calgary-Glenora prior to the change of government. I know in 1993 Anne McLellan was almost left out of cabinet due to the very close result in her riding only being finalized a day or two before the cabinet was sworn in.

That said, I now predict that Karen McPherson will be made Energy Minister (if Notley doesn't keep it for herself) rather than Kazim.
1.McPherson represents an outer Calgary riding, and would be the only minister from that region to be in cabinet, whereas Kazim represents a Central Calgary riding and their are already 3 other MLAs from that area who are certain to get in cabinet (former city councillor Joe Ceci, and lawyers Stephanie McLean and Karen Ganley)

2.McPherson is 48 whereas Kazim is 28.  I don't know that a 28 year old, no matter how brilliant they may be, is ready for a job like Energy Minister.

3.McPherson was an Information Technology Professional meaning she also likely has a science background and has also worked in the sector as an oil and gas analyst.

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Brian Topp has been appointed Rachel Notley's Chief of Staff. I was going to put him on my list of potential Chiefs of Staff but I thought he was from Ontario not Saskatchewan as I was familiar with him as the former top aide to Jack Layton and was unaware that he had previously been a senior aide to Roy Romanow.

He worked for Romanow, but is based in Toronto and was born and grew in Longueuil, a Montreal suburb.

Hrm, Janice MacKinnon might have been a better fit had she been interested.

MacKinnon or Romanow for senior political advisor?

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Has Prentice officially resigned his seat?  How can he resign when he hasn't even been officially reelected yet?

I could see the P.Cs putting pressure on him to stick around, at least for a year or so.

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Hrm, Janice MacKinnon might have been a better fit had she been interested.

MacKinnon or Romanow for senior political advisor?

Are you joking?? I can't think of a more horrible pick than Janice MacKinnon - first of all she NOT a political strategist at all - she is an economist and she knows zilch about partisan politics. Second of all she is not a New Democrat anymore. She has gone totally rightwing she is a "useful idiot" who appears on panels as an ex-NDPer who can be relied on to sh**t on the NDP at every opportunity. With "friends" like her - who needs enemies!

She was actually a Professor of Women's History and not an economist.  She was always on the right wing of the NDP which fit her in quite well with the Romanow government, especially as it was eliminating deficits.  I believe she is still a supporter of the Saskatchewan NDP or, at least, a federal Liberal.  Her support of the NDP likely had to do with social, not economic, issues.

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Urban: 43%
Rural: 33%

The urban results are greater than the rural results entirely because or the Edmonton region and, much smaller, Lethbridge.

In the Calgary region, the rural areas (as stated here) and the remaining smaller cities (Red Deer, Medicine Hat, Grand Prairie and Fort McMurrary) the NDP got between 30-35% of the vote everywhere. Not every riding of course, but in every region.

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Globe profiles the Dipper caucus.

My profile is better.

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NDP government and cabinet to be sworn in May 24.

Budget won't be tabled until the fall.

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Notley says her cabinet will have just 12 members including herself.

I personally think these small cabinets are silly, but I would expect that by the end of the government's (first) term, the cabinet will have 18/19 members.

So, this is my final prediction:

1.Premier/Interegovernmental Affairs/Energy, Rachel Notley
2.Finance/Deputy Premier, Brian Mason
3.Economic Development and Trade/Skills, Training and Labour, Shannon Phillips
4.Agriculture, Food and Rural Development, Oneil Carlier
5.Environment and Natural Resources, Bruce Hinkley
6.Transportation, Infrastructure and Service Alberta, Joe Ceci
7.Human Services, Marie Renaud
8.Health and Seniors/Government House Leader, David Eggen
9.Education/Advanced Education and Innovation, Sarah Hoffman
10.Municipal Affairs, Culture and Tourism, Bob Wanner
11.Aboriginal Relations and Northern Development/Status of Women, Marg McCuaig-Boyd
12.Attorney General, Kathleen Ganley

Notley said that all or nearly all the ministers would have dual portfolios.  All of them do here given that "Human Services" (as opposed to animal services?) is a combination in all the other big provinces (and even some of the small ones) of the Human Resources Ministry and the Children and Family Development ministry while the Attorney General portfolio also includes Solicitor General.

Speaker, Deron Bilous
Deputy Speaker, some incumbent P.C MLA

6 men and 6 women
5 from Edmonton, 2 from Calgary, 2 from rural areas, 2 from the smaller cities and one from the north.

Obviously Edmonton is over represented but that is to be expected when the Premier is from there as are all the other MLAs with previous legislative experience.  I, again, would expect that to be somewhat corrected by the end of the (first) term with at least a few more MLAs from Calgary added in.

Given the small size of the cabinet, I would also expect that each minister will have at least one parliamentary secretary with, at least some, real powers.  I would also expect that the legislative committee system will be very active.

First prediction of the P.As

1.Premier/Intergovernmental Affairs/Energy, Karen McPherson, Calgary
2.Finance and Deputy Premier, Richard Feehan, Edmonton
3.Economic Development and Trade/Skills, Training and Labour, Irfan Sabir, Calgary
4.Agriculture, Food and Rural Development, Graham Sucha, Calgary
5.Environment and Natural Resources, Eric Rosendahl, Rural
6.Transportation, Infrastructure and Service Alberta, Christine Gray, Edmonton
7.Human Services, Lori Sigurdson, Edmonton
8.Health and Seniors, Bob Turner, Edmonton
9.Education/Advanced Education and Innovation, Annie McKitrick, Edmonton
10.Municipal Affairs, Culture and Tourism, Brandy Payne, Calgary
11.Aboriginal Relations and Northern Development/Status of Women, Colin Piquette, North
12.Attorney General, Maria Fitzpatrick, Lethbridge

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Actually i read that this latest picture was something Drever posted on instagram a year ago...so it still has nothing to do with her conduct since being elected.

I stand by my prediction that she will likely keep her nose clean for the next year and then get quietly readmitted to caucus

I heard it was at the beginning of the year.  It was likely after she first announced she wanted to be a candidate if not after she was nominated.

She was likely also asked by NDP if there was anything else that she had done that they should be aware of and obviously didn't mention this.  So she probably lied to them.

NDP cabinet swearing in ceremony live stream:
http://alberta.ca/premier.cfm  2 P.M Alberta time (central time I believe)

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The picture in question was from a closed Instagram account that looked to be have been posted during the PC leadership contest when Prentice and McIver were the only two people running...that contest ran over the summer of 2014. The Alberta NDP filled its candidate slate in seemingly unwinnable Calgary seats in early April 2015. Who knows...did she neglect to submit all her accounts to the party for vetting purposes? if so was it on purpose or just forgetfulness. I know that when i think of all the things I post in all forms of social media in a given year I would have a hard time remembering every single solitary thing.

I also don't think for one nano-second that Drever is homophobic. Quite the contrary, she is probably so gay-friendly that her "gay boyz" comment was likely sarcastic and ironic - and no one i know who is actually gay actually thinks what she posted was the least bit "homophobic" in the first place...the problem is always these well meaning heteros who go overboard about what is or is not homophobic without ever asking anyone LGBT for their own opinion.

I stand by my prediction - either Drever stays out of trouble and does an exemplary job over the next year and gets quietly readmitted to caucus - say next summer - or she sits as an indy for 4 years collects her salary and then disappears without a trace in 2019.

1.I also highly doubt she is homophobic and your comment that this is essentially misplaced sympathy from 'straights' may be right.

2.I would also expect her to rejoin the caucus after a year.  After all, even Tony Rizzo in Ontario was allowed to rejoin the Rae government caucus, though he was more or less cleared of all the allegations against him.

3.Here's a fun parlor game, which members of the present caucus do you think will end up quitting the Alberta NDP?  Around 10 of the 74 member Ontario NDP caucus later publicly aligned with a different party (including the Premier himself!)  Dennis Drainville quit the NDP caucus and sat as an independent but after moving to Quebec he later rejoined the party and became a provincial party executive, but most of the others either joined the Liberals and one of them ended up becoming a rather far right wing Toronto City Councillor.

A slightly smaller number of the Romanow government 1991 55 member caucus also left the NDP.

Given the youth and general political inexperience of most of the Alberta NDP caucus, I'd expect that at least a handful of them will wonder why they ever considered themselves to be New Democrats.

If the NDP veers to the 'right' or, at least, the center, I'd put money on Rod Loyola being the first to quit, though I admit I'm only able to name him due to his greater profile.

4.Global Alberta will also carry the swearing in ceremony live on the internet.  Not sure about the CBC.

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CBC carrying it here:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary

As long as Notley doesn't end her speech saying "So, let's boogie" I predict things will mostly go A-OK.

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NDP cabinet
1.Premier/Intergovernmental Affairs, Rachel Notley
2.Finance/Treasury Board, Joe Ceci
3.Energy, Marg McCuaig-Boyd
4.Agriculture and Foresty, Oneil Carlier
5.Environment and Parks/Status of Women, Shannon Phillips
6.Transportaton and Infrastructure, Brian Mason
7.Human Services, Irfan Sabir
8.Education/Culture and Tourism, David Eggen
9.Innovation and Advanced Education/Jobs, Skills, Training and Labour, Lori Sigurdson
10.Health and Seniors, Sarah Hoffman
11.Municipal Affairs/Service Alberta, Deron Bilous
12.Attorney General and Solicitor General/Aboriginal Relations, Kathleen Ganley

So, Notley largely rejected my choices.  I predict difficult times for her because of this!

I'm stunned that Marie Renaud was left out and surprised, though not stunned, that Bob Wanner was left out.  Less surprised about Hinkley.

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So, Notley largely rejected my choices.  I predict difficult times for her because of this!

I don't know how Cabinets are chosen in Canada, but perhaps certain individuals wanted certain portfolios. I am somewhat surprised to see former NDP Leader Brian Mason take a rather low profile Cabinet position. On the other hand, it shouldn't be too surprising to see an MLA from Calgary get Finance. Edmonton already belongs to the NDP, but they could certainly afford to increase their standing in Calgary and the rest of Alberta. I don't see the Deputy Premier on the list. Who will that be?

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I listed the ridings above. Edmonton will have six, Calgary three, and elsewhere three (Lethbridge-West and two other rural seats). That's probably a pretty good balance considering the distribution of the NDP's seats. It's also worth mentioning (though not at all surprising) that all four of the returning NDP MLAs will have Cabinet positions.

1.There is no deputy premier, at least not yet.

2.Transportation and Infrastructure is actually a very significant role given that, although Alberta has slowed down with the decline in oil prices, the provinces still has a major backlog of infrastructure projects that need to come on line.

3.Given that all of the incumbent NDP MLAs got into cabinet, I'd say it's almost certain that Liberal Party leader David Swann will be elected speaker, though my prediction track record obviously doesn't look very good.

3.A couple more minor points: Lethbridge is hardly rural  (2014 population estimate of nearly 100,000) and one of the rural ridings is in the north.

My 'dick' for the day: new National Post columnist Colby Cosh (he's leaving MacLean's hooray!),  disparaged Marg McCuaig-Boyd as a 'school teacher.'  First of all, I don't know why a 'school teacher' couldn't be a successful Energy Minister (though Jenny Carter in Ontario was a disaster), but she actually hasn't been a 'school teacher' in probably 20 years.  She was a Regional College Campus Vice President turned self employed Management Consultant.

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Also, Brian Mason is the Government House Leader - and that is usually considered a full-time job in itself, so its understandable that his cabinet portfolio would be a bit less onerous than say - Finance. i wonder who will be speaker?

Government House Leader is only a full time job federally. Here in B.C, the government House Leader is Mike de Jong who is also the Finance Minister.

I'd guess that likely outgoing Liberal Party Leader David Swann will be the next speaker.  There is a lot of speculation on that already.  Otherwise, it could go to some incumbent P.C MLA.  I can't see it going to an incumbent Wild Rose MLA as the NDP would likely be suspicious of their partisanship.

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I just read that the NDP is putting forward Bob Wanner the newly elected MLA for Medicine Hat as speaker

I don't know that making a newly elected MLA the speaker is a good idea, especially in a legislature with more than 70 new MLAs.

Anyway, since it seems I was wrong about David Swann becoming speaker, and wrong about every ministers portfolio save for the Attorney General (although I did predict 8 of the 11 MLAs to get appointed to cabinet) I think it's safe to say that like Ben Kenobi, my failure is complete.