Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[136or142]

This election result is a comeback for Alberta NDP campaign leader Brian Topp after the debacle in British Columbia.

[136or142]

New NDP MLA Annie McKitrick in Sherwood Park may or may not have been a Richmond, British Columbia school trustee who ran for the Federal Liberal nomination here a number of years ago.

[136or142]

My projected Energy, Mines and Petroleum Minister, the hopeless Anam Kazim leads by 61 votes.

[136or142]

Notley riding elects a New Democrat.

[136or142]

Peace River: 129 vote lead for NDP, 2 boxes left.

Excellent. And Lesser Slave Lake?

NDP ahead by nearly 500 votes.

Free Slave Lake!

[136or142]

The NDP will still  get a higher share of the vote in Lloydminister Saskatchewan than they got in Lloydminster Alberta. (I believe it's the same city).

[136or142]

What was the turnout?

[136or142]

"They haven't updated raw vote results in over 2 hours."
http://results.elections.ab.ca/wtResultsPGE.htm

[136or142]

The NDP won 13 of 26 seats in Calgary and suburban Calgary with the one tie in Calgary-Glenmore and, for some reason, a byelection to be held in Calgary-Foothills.  Joe Ceci got the highest share of the vote for the NDP here at 49.81%

[136or142]

NDP at 597,775 votes  with 7120 of 7141 polls reporting.  Will they top 600,000?

[136or142]

According to Danielle Smith there are only 16 returning MLAs.

Makes the job of speaker very important. The NDP chief whip will also be an important job.

[136or142]

Only 3 New Democrats in Calgary and its suburbs got over 40% of the vote.

[136or142]

4 New Democrats won in the 11 northern ridings: Colin Piquette, Marg McCuaig-Boyd, Danielle Larivee and Debbie Jabbour.  I predict Piquette and McCauig-Boyd will get in the cabinet with an outside chance to Larivee.

[136or142]

Brian Mason was reelected with 78.07% of the vote. You'd think Alberta was a one party province or something!

[136or142]

http://results.elections.ab.ca/wtResultsPGE.htm

[136or142]

Anybody think the P.C Party will put pressure on Jim Prentice to keep his seat, at least for awhile?

[136or142]

Final Results
Total: 1,486,877
NDP: 603,461 40.59%
P.C: 412,955 27.78%
WR: 360,101 24.22%
Lib:   62,171
Alb:  33,867
Other: 14,322
Turnout 59% (Roughly)

[136or142]

The NDP have won 14 of 26 ridings in Calgary and its suburbs and I would expect the one tie result to go to the NDP if it goes to a byelection as well.

Assuming the tie in Calgary-Glenmore goes to the NDP, the NDP caucus will contain 27 men and 27 women.

[136or142]

My cabinet prediction (I'm not an insider or anything so take this for what it's worth. I expect to at least get 'Premier' correct)
1.Premier/Federal Provincial Relations, Rachel Notley, MLA 2008-, Nurses Union Labour Relations Officer, Former Labour Lawyer, B.A-Political Science, Edmonton-Strathcona

2.Finance, Brian Mason, MLA 2000-, Party Leader 2004-2014, Bus Driver, City Councillor 1989-2000, B.A-Political Science, Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood

3.Economic Development and Trade, Joe Ceci, NPO Public Policy Program Manager, Former Community Worker, City Councillor 1995-2010, MSW, Calgary-Fort

4.Tourism, Small Business and Culture/North, Marg McCuaig-Boyd, Small Business Consultant, Former Grand Prairie Regional College Campus Vice President, Former Teacher, B.A-Education, M.A-Administration and Leadership, Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley (Northern Alberta)

5.Labour and Immigration/Women, Kathleen Ganley, Labour and Employment Lawyer, B.A-Philosophy (Hons), B.A-Psychology, Calgary-Buffalo

6.Agriculture, Food and Rural Development, Oneil Carlier, PSAC Regional Representative, Former Agriculture Canada Geotechnical Technician, Whitecourt-Ste Anne (West Central Alberta)

7.Natural Resources, Eric Rosendahl, Retired Pulp Mill Worker and President Yellowhead Labour Council, President Hinton Fish and Game Association, West Yellowhead (West Central Alberta)

8.Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources, Anam Kazim, Applications Engineer, B.Sc-Chemical Engineering, M.Sc-BioChemical and Environmental Engineering, Calgary-Glenmore

9.Environment, Marlin Schmidt, Provincial Environment Ministry Scientist, Former Environmental Consultant, Professional Accordion Player, M.Sc-Hydrogeology, Edmonton-Gold Bar

10.Transportation and Infrastructure, Shannon Phillips, Alberta Federation of Labour Policy Analyst, Past Chair Womanspace Resource Centre, B.A-Political Science (Hons), M.A-Political Science, Lethbridge West (Southern Alberta)

11.Government Services and Public Works/House Leader, David Eggen, MLA 2004-2008, 2012-, Executive Director Alberta Friends of Medicare, Former High School English Teacher and Union Activist, Former High School Coach, B.A-Education, Edmonton-Calder

12.Human Resources and Housing, Marie Renaud, LoSeCa Foundation Executive Director, St. Albert (Suburban Edmonton)

13.Children and Family Development, Lori Sigurdson, Alberta College of Social Work Manager for Professional Affairs, Social Work Instructor and former Social Worker, Vice President Public Interest Alberta, MSW, Former Sunday School Teacher, Edmonton-Riverview

14.Education, Sarah Hoffman, Former Alberta NDP Caucus Research Director, Public School Trustee 2010-? Board Chair 2012-?, M.A-Educational Policy Studies, Edmonton-Glenora

15.Advanced Education, Training and Technology, Bruce Hinkley, Retired School Principal, B.A-Education, M.A-, Wetaskiwin-Camrose (East Central Alberta)

16.Health/Seniors, Bob Turner, Physician and Retired Medical and Oncology Professor, Former Hospital Director of Clinical Hematology, Former Canadian Red Cross Transfusion Service Medical Director, Edmonton-Whitemud

17.Municipal Affairs, Bob Wanner, Mediator, Retired Medicine Hat Commissioner of Public Services, MBA, Medicine Hat

18.Aboriginal Affairs, Colin Piquette, Educational Policy Studies Instructor, President Boyle and District Chamber of Commerce, Director Boyle District Agriculture Society, B.A-Political Science, M.A-Adult Education, Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater (Northern Alberta)

19.Attorney General, Stephanie McLean, Family and Criminal Defense Lawyer and Firm Partner, Alberta Criminal Defense Lawyers Association Executive, Calgary-Varsity

Speaker, Deron Bilous, MLA 2012-

[136or142]

Other than a slight overestimation of the NDP and slight underestimation of the PCs, I'd say the polling for this election was exceptional. All of the projections I saw have lined up quite well with the overall results.

Given how few Tories survived, is it safe to assume that all of the remaining former Wildrose floor-crossers have now been wiped out?

I believe they said on the CBC that one was reelected.  I forget who though.

Edit, nope I guess one was leading, but that person lost in the end.
Albertans also punished the Wildrose floor-crossers in tonight's vote. All of the MLAs who migrated to the PCs last year lost their seats.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/alberta-votes/alberta-election-2015-results-ndp-wave-sweeps-across-province-in-historic-win-1.3062605

[136or142]

A bittersweet election for Wildrose. If you had told them that they would salvage 20 seats in rural Alberta a couple months ago, they would have been ecstatic, but now it's a disappointing defeat

Wildrose is quite happy, really. Result seems to be quite in line with expectations. Jean wasn't really campaigning to be Premier in the two last weeks, he decided to be quiet and get a solid foothold in rural Alberta instead.

The Mike Harris P.Cs in Ontario were also happy with their result in 1990 where they also slipped in the popular vote but ended gaining a handful of seats from their previous election result.

[136or142]

Apropos of nothing, with this unexpected win the number of conservative led governments in Canada is down to 4: BC, NL, Saskatchewan, and federally.

If the current polling holds it could be down to 2 by the end of the year.

B.C is a 'free enterprise' coalition of Conservatives and blue Liberals.

[136or142]

Out of curiosity, who are some of the more interesting NDP/Wildrose candidates who won? I've heard that in terms of gender and ethnicity, the candidates were pretty diverse this time around, but I don't know much about them (besides Notley).

17 of the NDP MLAs are or were union activists, anything from a rank and file worker with a position on a union committee to a union local president or national union representative.  13 of the NDP MLAs are or were educators, anything from the yoga teacher (who also owns her yoga small business) to a college campus vice president.  They don't add up to 30 though because a few of were teacher's union activists.

There are also 4 lawyers or former lawyers, 3 civil servants, 3 nurses, a physician who was also a medical professor and a couple scientists, one of whom is in the tie race and another of whom is also a civil servant.

The number of young university students is actually tiny and is just  another example of what Jon Stewart has correctly sighted as disgusting media sensationalism. (That said, the track record of university students who became politicians is actually quite positive.)

Two of the best NDP candidates by CV unfortunately were defeated.  Doug Hart a former Grand Prairie Regional College Acting President and William Pelech the U of Calgary Associate Dean - Academic.

I would be stunned if the finance minister were anybody but Brian Mason, unless Notley keeps it for herself.  I suspect it's far more likely though if she were to keep any take any portfolio besides Premier and Intergovernmental Affairs it would be Energy.
 

[136or142]

I would think these would be the most likely choices for Notley's Chief of Staff based on reading media tea leaves:
1.Thomas Lukaszuk
2.Doug Hart
3.Roy Romanow
4.Janice MacKinnon

Again, I'm no insider and Notley may have a personal preference for someone I have no idea about.  I could see it being any Albertan, even one of the five CEOs, except for Dwain Lingenfelter.

[136or142]

The Chavez supporter is Rod Loyola. He ran against Rachel Notley for the NDP leadership (and was also a failed candidate in the 2012 election).  Had he done better in the leadership race, Notley might have felt some pressure to put him in the cabinet, though she likely would have made up some meaningless portfolio for him (Minister of Loyola University?), but as she defeated him by around 35-1, she's probably won't anger many New Democrats by leaving him on the far left of the legislature.