Saskatchewan provincial election 2015/2016 (more likely in 2016) (user search)
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  Saskatchewan provincial election 2015/2016 (more likely in 2016) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Saskatchewan provincial election 2015/2016 (more likely in 2016)  (Read 20843 times)
136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,434
« Reply #25 on: April 05, 2016, 12:07:59 PM »
« edited: April 05, 2016, 12:09:52 PM by Adam T »


I agree on Meili.  The question marks were for McCall who is the NDP's most popular riding M.L.A outside of the Northern MLAs.  He would be the only M.L.A with cabinet experience likely to run, but I understand that he's very popular in his riding because he's excellent at his constituency work, so he might not want to harm that by taking on greater responsibilities, especially as Cam Broten loss in his riding has been partly pinned on him not being around in his constituency enough.
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #26 on: April 06, 2016, 12:08:38 PM »
« Edited: April 06, 2016, 12:15:47 PM by Adam T »

Two party swing:

Massive swing in Lloydminister and northwest Saskatchewan in general. I'm assuming they are feeling the benefits of the resource based economy.

In Saskatoon, Broten's seat sticks out like a sore thumb.

Looks like the NDP didn't target the right seats. Moose Jaw Wakamow should've been winnable, same with Saskatoon Fairview. They obviously did target Regina Douglas Park, which saw the largest NDP swing. Saskatoon University also saw a decent swing, but it wasn't enough for the NDP to win it.

A massive swing against the NDP in all the northern rural ridings (i.e not Athabasca or Cumberland) except for Batoche and Saskatchewan Rivers.  The Lloydminster result only makes sense if the Sask Party MLA has become extremely popular there over the last four years, otherwise it is such an odd result that I'm going to assume that it must be either a tabulation error or a computer error.

There were a number of errors on the Elections Saskatchewan website on election night, including an initial improper reporting of the total number of ballot boxes (at one late point there were more ballot boxes reported to have been the ballots in them counted than the total number of ballot boxes) and also in Wood River and a couple of other ridings, the 'final' result continued to change after all the ballot boxes were reported to have been counted.  So, I don't think some error having been made in Lloydminster is an impossibility.
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #27 on: April 06, 2016, 01:04:06 PM »

Possible... the MLA in Lloydminster was elected in a recent by-election, so possibly still enjoying a honeymoon. Of interest though, the by-election had a similar result to the 2011 general election.

It's also a border community with Alberta, so perhaps it's also an anti-(Alberta) NDP vote.

A good theory, but the collapse in the NDP share of the vote is stunning.
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #28 on: April 07, 2016, 02:10:44 PM »

That explains the swing in southeast Saskatchewan too.

Kindersley probably would have seen a similar swing if it weren't for a strong independent candidate. The NDP% dropped a lot, but the indy (former SP MLA) took a lot from the SP swing.

As you may or may not be aware the Kindersley MLA is a cabinet minister who took a lot of heat over some scandal that he has been involved in.
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #29 on: April 11, 2016, 02:17:13 PM »

Cam Broten announced his resignation today.
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