UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[136or142]

Labour leads or is tied in the final polls of 2014
Populus: CON 35%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4% (tabs)
YouGov/Sun: CON 32%, LAB 36%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 16%, GRN 5% (tabs)
from: ukpollingreport

[136or142]

If Labour Party support crashes in Scotland as the polls presently 'predict' it will be impossible for them to get a majority, and winning the most seats would be difficult as well.

The polls also show the Liberal Democrats will lose most of the seats they now hold, but an SNP could prop up a second place Labour Party into government.  I highly doubt, despite what the author of that article satirically suggests, that any SNP members would be in the cabinet.

[136or142]

"But a monkey in a suit could have led Labour to victory in 1997 and 2001"

They also said that in 1992 and look what happened.

[136or142]

"But a monkey in a suit could have led Labour to victory in 1997 and 2001"

They also said that in 1992 and look what happened.

Yeah, the Tories swiftly dumped Thatcher and subsequently overtook Labour in the polls.

Huh? Thatcher was dumped in 1990.

However, it seems the polls were basically tied from March 1991 until the election.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1987-1992

I guess they didnt' say that in 1992.  I thought I remembered everybody saying it was Labour's election's to lose.

[136or142]

Yey...polls. So much for the festive break.

Opinium

CON 32+3
LAB 33-3
LD 8+2
UKIP 17+1
GRN 4-1

From U.K Polling Report
Note that fieldwork for the poll was the 30th Dec to 2nd Jan, so included New Years Eve and New Years Day. There isn’t actually any real evidence that doing fieldwork on bank holidays when many people are out doing stuff produces odd results… but I’m a bit wary of it. There are examples of polls done on bank holidays producing very odd results, but there are also examples of polls done on perfectly normal days producing odd results and polls done on banks holidays producing normal looking ones.

Also, the U.K Polling Report 'uniform swing project' currently predicts a Labour majority of 26.

Regarding a "Conservative-Lib Dem-Green coalition"
Does the Green Party even have a seat?

[136or142]

Thanks for the reply
1.Is she the Green Party leader?
2.Was she elected in a by election or at the last general election? and was she party leader at the time?

I ask because I note the Green Party has elected at least 4 members to parliaments lately under first past the post (party leaders in the Canadian province of New Brunswick and the federal parliament, and provincially, not the leader but the highest profile Green, Andrew Weaver, here in B.C) and in either Australia or New Zealand.

If you reply that I should just wiki it myself, I have no problem with that.

[136or142]

Thanks for the reply
1.Is she the Green Party leader?
2.Was she elected in a by election or at the last general election? and was she party leader at the time?

She was elected at the last general election and she was the leader then, but stepped down as leader since then.

Thanks.

[136or142]

Wrt the other debate, more on that later but for now... um... some people seem to be forgetting what political life was like in the 1990s. The Major government was a slow-motion trainwreck's slow-motion trainwreck...

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/04/tony-blair-vacuum-british-politics-centre-ground

As if right on cue Andrew Rawnsley has written this interesting piece about Tony Blair in the Guardian today. As usual with anything to do with Blair you get the usual snide and spiteful comments from Joe Public in the comments section underneath it.

On Labour disliking coalition as they don't want to share power with a bourgeois party Rawnsley neatly sums this up this type of thinking (although this time on who voted for Blair) in the same article by calling it a tribal ghetto mentality.

Is this a recent thing?  I believe most Labour governments were of the majority variety but I'm aware when they were in a minority in the 1970s they formed a government with the support of the precursor of the Liberal Democrats.  And, they were also part of the coalition governments during the war.

[136or142]

I see no reason why the Libs won't carry on the current coalition (unless ukip refuse to back up a government with Liberals in it ... or the EU referendum becomes a sticking point)

They have to win at least one seat first!

[136or142]

Would the SNP back a Labour government?  Otherwise, according to the Ashcroft poll, no party can put together a majority.

Answering my own question: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11404828/Nicola-Sturgeon-price-of-helping-Ed-Miliband-into-Number-10-is-spending-spree.html

I'd assume Ed Miliband is going to have to turn this down lest Cameron run on it.

The Ashcroft poll didn't mention the local candidate names.  I'd guess that at least a number of incumbent Labour and Liberal Democratic M.Ps would have received higher numbers if their names were included.

[136or142]

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

LATEST UNS PROJECTION
Labour short by 19